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Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households: A Micro-Simulation Approach

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dc.contributor.authorRozenberg, Julie
dc.contributor.authorHallegatte, Stephane
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-09T20:38:20Z
dc.date.available2016-08-09T20:38:20Z
dc.date.issued2016-07
dc.description.abstractThe impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in Vietnam shows that the main determinant of the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 is the income of unskilled agriculture workers, followed by redistribution policies. Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in each of the hundreds scenarios. By 2030 climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty in Vietnam in about a quarter of the scenarios, with 400,000 to more than a million people living in extreme poverty just because of climate change impacts. Those scenarios in which climate change pushes the most people into poverty are scenarios with slow structural change away from agriculture, low productivity growth in agriculture, high population growth, and low redistribution levels. Conversely, in scenarios with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change has no impact on extreme poverty, although it still has an impact on the income of the bottom 40 percent.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/07/26597556/modeling-impacts-climate-change-future-vietnamese-households-micro-simulation-approach
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7766
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/24847
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7766
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectpoverty
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectshared socioeconomic pathways
dc.subjectuncertainty
dc.subjectinequality
dc.titleModeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Householdsen
dc.title.subtitleA Micro-Simulation Approachen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleModeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households: A Micro-Simulation Approach
okr.date.disclosure2016-07-25
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/07/26597556/modeling-impacts-climate-change-future-vietnamese-households-micro-simulation-approach
okr.guid858721469467279116
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7766
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7766
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b08448a312_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum26597556
okr.identifier.reportWPS7766
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2016/07/25/090224b08448a312/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Modeling0the0i00simulation0approach.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.countryViet Nam
okr.topicAgriculture::Climate Change and Agriculture
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Monitoring & Analysis
okr.unitEnvironment and Natural Resources Global Practice Group; and the Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solutions Area
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