Publication:
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022: Pandemic, War, Recession : Drivers of Aluminum and Copper Prices

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-16T15:39:01Z
dc.date.available2022-10-16T15:39:01Z
dc.date.issued2022-10-26
dc.description.abstractA sharp global growth slowdown and concerns about an impending global recession are weighing on commodity prices. Some energy prices remain elevated, however, amid geopolitical tensions and persistent supply disruptions. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $92/bbl in 2023 and ease to $80/bbl in 2024. Agricultural and metal prices are projected to decline 5 and 15 percent, respectively, in 2023 before stabilizing in 2024. The outlook is subject to multiple risks in a highly uncertain environment. They include worsening global growth prospects, including the pace of recovery in China; macroeconomic uncertainties; a prolonged and deeper conflict in Ukraine; and, in the case of food commodities, the ongoing La Niña weather pattern along with trade policies. A Special Focus section investigates the drivers of aluminum and copper prices. It finds that the price rebound after the pandemic was mainly driven by the economic recovery, but supply factors also contributed about one-quarter to the rebound. Since March 2022, a steep global growth slowdown, an unwinding of supply constraints, and concerns about an imminent global recession contributed to the plunge in metal prices. It concludes that for metal exporters, the energy transition may bring windfalls, but it could also increase their exposure to price volatility.en
dc.identifierhttps://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099733104242521908
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/38160
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/38160
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC : World Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectOIL AND GAS
dc.subjectOPEC
dc.subjectOPEC+
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE PRICES
dc.subjectMETAL PRICES
dc.subjectWAR IN UKRAINE
dc.subjectRECESSION
dc.subjectPANDEMIC
dc.titleCommodity Markets Outlook, October 2022en
dc.title.subtitlePandemic, War, Recession : Drivers of Aluminum and Copper Pricesen
dc.typeSerialen
dc.typeSérielfr
dc.typeSeriales
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleCommodity Markets Outlook, October 2022: Pandemic, War, Recession : Drivers of Aluminum and Copper Prices
okr.date.disclosure2022-10-26
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-15T11:34:38.175043Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-22T02:26:11.729765Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Publication
okr.guid099733104242521908
okr.language.supporteden
okr.topicEnergy::Oil & Gas
okr.topicEnergy::Energy Markets
okr.topicAgriculture::Commodity Risk Management
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Inflation
okr.unitEFI - Prospects Group (EPGDR)
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
Thumbnail Image
Name:
CMO-October-2022.pdf
Size:
4.42 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
English PDF
Download
Thumbnail Image
Name:
CMO-October-2022-Executive-Summary.pdf
Size:
313.86 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
English Executive Summary
Download
Thumbnail Image
Name:
CMO-October-2022-Special-Focus.pdf
Size:
931.86 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
English Special Focus
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
CMO-October-2022-Data-Supplement.zip
Size:
2.41 MB
Format:
Unknown data format
Description:
Data Supplement
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Global Economic Prospects