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Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2018

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank Group
dc.date.accessioned2018-10-29T15:47:38Z
dc.date.available2018-10-29T15:47:38Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractCommodity prices in the third quarter of 2018 were buffeted by geopolitical and macroeconomic events. Energy prices gained 3 percent in 2018 Q3 (q/q), partly in response to the impending re-imposition of sanctions on Iran by the United States along with continuing declines in production in Venezuela. As a result, crude oil prices are expected to average $72 per barrel (bbl) in 2018 (up from $53/bbl in 2017) and $74/bbl in 2019. This represents a sizable upward revision from the April 2018 forecast. Moreover, risks to the oil price forecast are to the upside in the short-term, given the recent decline in spare capacity. In contrast, metal and agricultural prices declined 10 and 7 percent, respectively, in the third quarter of 2018 amid robust supplies and trade disputes. Metal prices are expected to stabilize in 2019 whereas agricultural prices are expected to gain almost 2 percent. This edition also examines how energy and metal commodity markets have evolved over the past 20 years. It shows that China has been the main driver of commodity demand growth, particularly for coal and metals, but that its demand is likely to slow while other emerging market economies are unlikely to emulate China.
dc.identifierhttps://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/678081540845321639/commodity-markets-outlook-the-changing-of-the-guard-shifts-in-commodity-demand
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/30614
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/30614
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectENERGY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectMETALS
dc.subjectPRECIOUS METALS
dc.subjectMINERALS
dc.subjectPRICE SERIES
dc.subjectPRICE FORECASTS
dc.subjectPRICE INDICES
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.titleCommodity Markets Outlook, October 2018en
dc.typeSerialen
dc.typeSérielfr
dc.typeSeriales
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleCommodity Markets Outlook, October 2018
okr.date.disclosure2018-10-29
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-15T12:04:16.514591Z
okr.externalurlwww.worldbank.org/commodities
okr.guid678081540845321639
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/30614
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/30614
okr.identifier.report131479
okr.language.supporteden
okr.topicAgriculture::Commodity Risk Management
okr.topicEnergy::Energy Markets
okr.topicEnergy::Oil & Gas
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Commodities
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.unitDevelopment Prospects Group (DECPG)
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