Publication: Contingent Liabilities Risk Management: A Credit Risk Analysis Framework for Sovereign Guarantees and On-Lending
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2016-01
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2016-02-26
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Sovereign credit guarantees and government on-lending can catalyze private sector investment and fulfill specific policy objectives. However, contingent liabilities stemming from guarantees and contingent assets stemming from on-lending expose governments to risk. Prudent risk management, including risk analysis and measurement, can help identify and mitigate these risks. This paper proposes a four-step structure for analyzing and measuring credit risk: (i) defining key characteristics to determine the choice of a risk analysis approach; (ii) analyzing risk drivers; (iii) quantifying risks; and (iv) applying risk analyses and quantification to the design of risk management tools. This structure is based on an assessment of approaches discussed in academia and applied in practice. The paper demonstrates how the four steps of credit risk management are applied in Colombia, Sweden, and Turkey. It also discusses how the proposed framework is applied in Indonesia as it develops a credit risk management framework for sovereign guarantees.
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“Bachmair, Fritz Florian. 2016. Contingent Liabilities Risk Management: A Credit Risk Analysis Framework for Sovereign Guarantees and On-Lending. MFM Global Practice discussion paper,no. 9;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23774 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Contingent Liabilities Risk Management(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01)Sovereign credit guarantees and government on-lending can catalyze private sector investment and fulfill specific policy objectives. However, contingent liabilities stemming from guarantees and contingent assets stemming from on-lending expose governments to risk. Prudent risk management, including risk analysis and measurement, can help identify and mitigate these risks. This paper proposes a four-step structure for analyzing and measuring credit risk: (i) defining key characteristics to determine the choice of a risk analysis approach; (ii) analyzing risk drivers; (iii) quantifying risks; and (iv) applying risk analyses and quantification to the design of risk management tools. This structure is based on an assessment of approaches discussed in academia and applied in practice. The paper demonstrates how the four steps of credit risk management are applied in Colombia, Sweden, and Turkey. It also discusses how the proposed framework is applied in Indonesia as it develops a credit risk management framework for sovereign guarantees. Country experiences show that although sovereign risk managers can draw on insights from credit risk management in the private sector, academic literature, and practices in other countries, approaches to risk management need to be highly context-specific. Key differentiating factors include characteristics of the guarantee and on-lending portfolio, the sovereign’s specific risk exposure, the availability of market information and data, and resources and capacity in the public sector. Developing a sound risk analysis and measurement framework requires significant investments in resources, capacity building, and time. Governments should view this process as iterative and long-term.Publication Contingent Liabilities for Infrastructure Projects : Implementing a Risk Management Framework for Governments(World Bank, Washington, DC, 1998-08)To manage their exposure arising from guarantees to infrastructure projects, governments need to adopt modern risk management techniques. The authors introduce an integrated risk management system that draws on recent advances in the private sector. Adapted for use in the public sector, the system enables governments to budget for expected losses and to set aside reserves against unexpected losses, thus avoiding the budgetary stress associated with redirecting scarce public resources to cover a sudden increase in costs.Publication Debt Management Performance Assessment : Mongolia(Washington, DC, 2008-06)A World Bank mission visited Ulaanbaatar April 3-11, 2008. The team consisted of Lars Jessen and Eriko Togo, World Bank Treasury. The objective was to undertake a comprehensive assessment of debt management operations using the Debt Management Performance Assessment tool (DeMPA) that was developed with a focus on Low Income Countries (LICs). A main reason for applying the tool in Mongolia was the opportunity to take stock of the progress in the debt management area achieved under the debt management sub-component of the World Bank Governance Assistance Program (GAP). The mission met with government officials from various departments in the Ministry of Finance, including the Debt Management Division, Bank of Mongolia, Mongolia National Audit Office, the State Audit and Inspection Committee, and a private bank. Mongolia scores relatively high on indicators related to governance and strategy development, coordination with macroeconomic policies, strategy implementation, and recording and reporting. Weaknesses reside in the areas of cash flow forecasting and cash management, and operational risk management. The latter include debt administration and data security, and segregation of duties, staff capacity, and business continuity.Publication Risk Management Systems for Contingent Infrastructure Liabilities : Applications to Improve Contract Design and Monitoring(World Bank, Washington, DC, 1998-08)Government guarantees for private infrastructure projects represent real liabilities, and their costs can average as much as a third of the amount guaranteed. The authors show how governments can use a risk valuation process to analyze the distribution of risks, decide which risks they should bear and which should be borne by the private sector, and reduce the frequency and size of calls on guarantees.Publication Assessment of Contingent Liabilities and Their Impact on Debt Dynamics in South Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-05)The aim of this analysis is to quantify the losses from potential materialization of contingent liabilities by applying a new methodology for the case of South Africa and, to assess their impact on debt dynamics. Accordingly, we bring a novelty to this research by utilizing probabilities of distress, which is a different approach compared to the existing, already applied methodology. The central finding of the simulations conducted is that estimated losses from contingent liabilities, are significantly lower in the first year when they materialize compared to the existing applied methodology, and will gradually add up over time. Accordingly, the solvency and liquidity situation in the country will deteriorate. For example, the largest deterioration will occur in the debt to GDP ratio where the debt accumulation may be higher by 2.1 percent of GDP within three years, compared to the baseline projection. What is more concerning is that the debt trajectory is not stabilizing and losses incurred from materialization of contingent liabilities may become significant driving factor of debt accumulation in medium-term. Ultimately, the current estimates suggest that contingent liabilities may constitute a drag to fiscal policy in medium-term and their long-term accumulation may jeopardize the debt sustainability of the country. In that respect, this analysis suggests remedial measures and building protective buffers by the South African Treasury in the case CLs materialize.
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