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Common Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative

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dc.contributor.authorDe Soyres, Francois
dc.contributor.authorMulabdic, Alen
dc.contributor.authorRuta, Michele
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-03T20:32:31Z
dc.date.available2019-04-03T20:32:31Z
dc.date.issued2019-04
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a structural general equilibrium model to analyze the effects on trade, welfare, and gross domestic product of common transport infrastructure. Specifically, the model builds on the framework by Caliendo and Parro (2015) -- a Ricardian model with sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods and sectoral heterogeneity -- to allow for changes in trade costs due to improvements in transportation infrastructure, financed through domestic taxation, connecting multiple countries. The model highlights the trade impact of infrastructure investments through cross-border input-output linkages. This framework is then used to quantify the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative. Using new estimates on the effects on trade costs of transport infrastructure related to the initiative based on Geographic Information System analysis, the model shows that gross domestic product will increase by up to 3.4 percent for participating countries and by up to 2.9 percent for the world. Because trade gains are not commensurate with projected investments, some countries may experience a negative welfare effect due to the high cost of the infrastructure. The analysis also finds strong complementarity between infrastructure investment and trade policy reforms.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/879031554144957551/Common-Transport-Infrastructure-A-Quantitative-Model-and-Estimates-from-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8801
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/31496
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 8801
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectTRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectBELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectWELFARE IMPACT
dc.titleCommon Transport Infrastructureen
dc.title.subtitleA Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiativeen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleCommon Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative
okr.date.disclosure2019-04-01
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/879031554144957551/Common-Transport-Infrastructure-A-Quantitative-Model-and-Estimates-from-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative
okr.guid879031554144957551
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8801
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8801
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b086e13940_3_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum30948699
okr.identifier.reportWPS8801
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/879031554144957551/pdf/Common-Transport-Infrastructure-A-Quantitative-Model-and-Estimates-from-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined12435
okr.statistics.dr879031554144957551
okr.statistics.drstats7067
okr.topicTransport::Transport and Trade Logistics
okr.topicInfrastructure Economics and Finance::Infrastructure Economics
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade and Transport
okr.unitMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice; and the Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Region
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