Publication:
Punjab Debt Sustainability Analysis

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dc.contributor.authorManoel, Alvaro
dc.contributor.authorRefaqat, Saadia
dc.contributor.authorOnder, Harun
dc.contributor.authorAshraf, Mehwish
dc.date.accessioned2014-04-17T14:47:01Z
dc.date.available2014-04-17T14:47:01Z
dc.date.issued2012-10
dc.description.abstractPunjab is Pakistan's most populous and economically vibrant province. Its fiscal health, therefore, is crucial to the fiscal stability and economic development of Pakistan as a whole. By end-June 2011, Punjab's outstanding debt stood at Rs. 413 billion, or 4.0 percent of Gross Subnational Domestic Product (GSDP). The low debt level is perhaps not surprising given the historical barriers to borrowing imposed at the federal level. But this has changed profoundly with enactment of the 18th Constitutional Amendment which has allowed provinces to borrow domestically and externally, subject to limits imposed by National Economic Council (NEC). This change has heightened the need to examine what Punjab owes and the question of provincial debt sustainability in general. As there is no threshold defined for subnational debt levels, this sustainability analysis considers unsustainable fiscal policies and borrowing strategy to be those that lead to an explosive accumulation of debt such that it would jeopardize the normal provision of services by the province. The analysis projects the debt outlook through the fiscal years 2012 to 2021, using the Government of Punjab's current Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) as the base. The MTFF for fiscal 2012 anticipates fiscal surpluses in medium term, driven mainly by an improvement in provincial finances due to a favorable Seventh National Finance Commission Award, and thus concludes that the debt outlook is sustainable through fiscal 2021: the debt-to-GSDP ratio gradually declines over the next 10 years, to 1.2 percent, from 4.0 percent; the interest payments-to-revenues ratio decreases to 0.9 percent, from 3.0 percent; while the debt service-to-revenues ratio rises by a modest 0.3 percent to 3.3 percent. The analysis then explores some potential vulnerability to economic and fiscal shocks. Punjab's debt sustainability to be fairly robust to most shocks, except when the individual shocks are combined. However, the probability of combined shock remains very low.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/10/19309508/punjab-debt-sustainability-analysis
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/17877
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/17877
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorld Bank Policy Paper Series on Pakistan;no. PK 13/12
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectACCUMULATION OF DEBT
dc.subjectAMOUNT OF LOANS
dc.subjectARBITRATION
dc.subjectBAILOUT
dc.subjectBAILOUTS
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subjectBANK POLICY
dc.subjectBANKRUPTCY
dc.subjectBENEFICIARIES
dc.subjectBOND
dc.subjectBOND ISSUE
dc.subjectBORROWING STRATEGY
dc.subjectBUDGET CONSTRAINT
dc.subjectBUDGET CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectCAPITALIZATION
dc.subjectCENTRAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectCONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITY
dc.subjectCOUNTRY DEBT
dc.subjectCREDITOR
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectCURRENCY COMPOSITION
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEBT BURDEN
dc.subjectDEBT CRISES
dc.subjectDEBT LEVEL
dc.subjectDEBT LEVELS
dc.subjectDEBT MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICE
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICES
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICING
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICING COST
dc.subjectDEBT STOCK
dc.subjectDEBTS
dc.subjectDECENTRALIZATION
dc.subjectDEFICITS
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT BANK
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectDISTRICT
dc.subjectDISTRICT GOVERNMENTS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CURRENCY
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEBT
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectEXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE PROGRAMS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXTERNAL BORROWING
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subjectFEDERAL ADMINISTRATIONS
dc.subjectFEDERAL COUNTRIES
dc.subjectFEDERAL DEBT
dc.subjectFEDERAL GRANTS
dc.subjectFEDERAL INTERVENTION
dc.subjectFEDERAL LAW
dc.subjectFEDERAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFEDERAL REVENUE
dc.subjectFEDERAL TRANSFERS
dc.subjectFEDERAL-PROVINCIAL
dc.subjectFINANCES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS
dc.subjectFISCAL ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectFISCAL ADJUSTMENT
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCES
dc.subjectFISCAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFISCAL DISCIPLINE
dc.subjectFISCAL FEDERALISM
dc.subjectFISCAL FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectFISCAL IMPACT
dc.subjectFISCAL PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFISCAL SPACE
dc.subjectFISCAL STABILITY
dc.subjectFISCAL SURPLUSES
dc.subjectFISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectFIXED INTEREST
dc.subjectFIXED INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY RISK
dc.subjectFOREIGN DEBT
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOREIGN LOAN
dc.subjectFOREIGN LOANS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT ASSETS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BONDS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectHOLDING
dc.subjectIMMOVABLE PROPERTY
dc.subjectINCOME TAX
dc.subjectINDEBTEDNESS
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectINFLATION RATES
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING
dc.subjectINITIAL DEBT
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
dc.subjectINTEREST INCOME
dc.subjectINTEREST PAYMENT
dc.subjectINTEREST PAYMENTS
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTERGOVERNMENTAL FISCAL RELATIONS
dc.subjectINTERGOVERNMENTAL TRANSFERS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectISSUANCE
dc.subjectLENDERS
dc.subjectLEVEL OF GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectLIABILITY
dc.subjectLIQUIDATION
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectLOAN
dc.subjectLOAN AMOUNT
dc.subjectLOAN PORTFOLIO
dc.subjectLONG-TERM MATURITIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectMATURITY
dc.subjectMEDIUM TERM FISCAL FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectMEDIUM-TERM FISCAL
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectMORAL HAZARD
dc.subjectMUNICIPALITIES
dc.subjectNATIONAL FINANCE
dc.subjectNATIONAL TREASURY
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subjectNET CURRENT REVENUE
dc.subjectNET CURRENT REVENUES
dc.subjectNET DEBT
dc.subjectOUTSTANDING AMOUNT
dc.subjectOUTSTANDING DEBT
dc.subjectOUTSTANDING LOAN
dc.subjectOVERDRAFT
dc.subjectOVERDRAFT FACILITY
dc.subjectPENSION
dc.subjectPENSION FUND
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY ACTIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY ADJUSTMENT
dc.subjectPOLICY ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectPOLICY INDICATORS
dc.subjectPOLICY REPORT
dc.subjectPORTFOLIO
dc.subjectPOSITIVE DEBT
dc.subjectPRICE VALUES
dc.subjectPRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS
dc.subjectPRIVATIZATION
dc.subjectPROPERTY TAX
dc.subjectPROVINCE
dc.subjectPROVINCES
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL ACCESS
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL BORROWING
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL BUDGET
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL DEBT
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL ECONOMIES
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL FINANCES
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL LEVEL
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL SHARE
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL SHARES
dc.subjectPROVINCIAL TAX
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectRECEIPTS
dc.subjectRECURRENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectRECURRENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectREGULATORY AUTHORITIES
dc.subjectRENEGOTIATION
dc.subjectREVENUE SHARING
dc.subjectREVENUE SHARING FORMULA
dc.subjectSAFETY NETS
dc.subjectSHORT-TERM LIQUIDITY
dc.subjectSOCIAL WELFARE
dc.subjectSOLVENCY
dc.subjectSTAMP DUTIES
dc.subjectSTATE BANK
dc.subjectSTATE GOVERNMENTS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL PROBLEMS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL REFORMS
dc.subjectSUBNATIONAL
dc.subjectSUBNATIONAL DEBT
dc.subjectSUBNATIONAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectSUBNATIONAL GOVERNMENTS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX BASE
dc.subjectTAX BASES
dc.subjectTAX COLLECTION
dc.subjectTAX EFFORT
dc.subjectTAX POLICY
dc.subjectTAX RATE
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectTAX REVENUE
dc.subjectTAX REVENUES
dc.subjectTAXATION
dc.subjectTAXIS
dc.subjectTOTAL DEBT
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectTOTAL PROVINCIAL REVENUES
dc.subjectTOTAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectTRANCHES
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectTREASURY
dc.subjectTREASURY BILL
dc.subjectTREASURY BILL RATE
dc.subjectVALUATION
dc.subjectWARRANTS
dc.titlePunjab Debt Sustainability Analysisen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2014-03-28
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-05T11:36:21.812285Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/10/19309508/punjab-debt-sustainability-analysis
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.globalpracticeGovernance
okr.guid545801468286773310
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000456286_20140328103251
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum19309508
okr.identifier.report86249
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/03/28/000456286_20140328103251/Rendered/PDF/862490NWP0Worl0ainability0Analysis.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryPakistan
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Access to Finance
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Subnational Economic Development
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicPublic Sector Economics
okr.topicBanks and Banking Reform
okr.topicPublic Sector Development
okr.unitEcon. Policy & Poverty Sector (SASEP)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd61c0c55-6729-5ba5-aa32-ba74610c7f12
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryd61c0c55-6729-5ba5-aa32-ba74610c7f12
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