Publication:
Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors
dc.contributor.author | Havlík, Petr | |
dc.contributor.author | Valin, Hugo | |
dc.contributor.author | Gusti, Mykola | |
dc.contributor.author | Schmid, Erwin | |
dc.contributor.author | Leclère, David | |
dc.contributor.author | Forsell, Nicklas | |
dc.contributor.author | Herrero, Mario | |
dc.contributor.author | Khabarov, Nikolay | |
dc.contributor.author | Mosnier, Aline | |
dc.contributor.author | Cantele, Matthew | |
dc.contributor.author | Obersteiner, Michael | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-12-18T19:32:32Z | |
dc.date.available | 2015-12-18T19:32:32Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2015-11 | |
dc.description.abstract | This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest. | en |
dc.identifier | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25250682/climate-change-impacts-mitigation-developing-world-integrated-assessment-agriculture-forestry-sectors | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23441 | |
dc.language | English | |
dc.language.iso | en_US | |
dc.publisher | World Bank, Washington, DC | |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7477 | |
dc.rights | CC BY 3.0 IGO | |
dc.rights.holder | World Bank | |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ | |
dc.subject | ALBEDO | |
dc.subject | PHOTOSYNTHESIS | |
dc.subject | DIVERGENCE | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS REDUCTION | |
dc.subject | FOREST DEGRADATION | |
dc.subject | ALTITUDE | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE | |
dc.subject | EMISSION ABATEMENT | |
dc.subject | TEMPERATURE | |
dc.subject | CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION | |
dc.subject | FOREST MANAGEMENT | |
dc.subject | ABSORPTION | |
dc.subject | RELATIVE HUMIDITY | |
dc.subject | GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | WIND SPEED | |
dc.subject | CARBON | |
dc.subject | GLOBAL WARMING | |
dc.subject | CONCENTRATES | |
dc.subject | ESTIMATES OF CARBON | |
dc.subject | METEOROLOGY | |
dc.subject | WIND | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | FOREST PLANTATIONS | |
dc.subject | ATMOSPHERE | |
dc.subject | INCENTIVES | |
dc.subject | GHGS | |
dc.subject | EVAPOTRANSPIRATION | |
dc.subject | GAS | |
dc.subject | GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS | |
dc.subject | CLOUDINESS | |
dc.subject | HUMIDITY | |
dc.subject | RADIATIVE FORCING | |
dc.subject | GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | CARBON CYCLE FEEDBACKS | |
dc.subject | BIOSPHERE | |
dc.subject | SOLAR RADIATION | |
dc.subject | EMISSION REDUCTIONS | |
dc.subject | LAND USE | |
dc.subject | AIR | |
dc.subject | GREENHOUSE GAS | |
dc.subject | CARBON CYCLE | |
dc.subject | ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION | |
dc.subject | OIL PALM | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS ABATEMENT | |
dc.subject | CARBON CAPTURE | |
dc.subject | LAND USE CHANGE | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE | |
dc.subject | FERTILIZERS | |
dc.subject | RADIATION | |
dc.subject | BIOMASS | |
dc.subject | CARBON NEUTRAL | |
dc.subject | FOREST SECTOR | |
dc.subject | CO2 | |
dc.subject | GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION | |
dc.subject | TROPICS | |
dc.subject | ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE | |
dc.subject | NEGATIVE IMPACT | |
dc.subject | EMISSION INCREASE | |
dc.subject | BIOMASS RESOURCES | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE | |
dc.subject | CARBON CAPTURE | |
dc.subject | ENERGY SOURCES | |
dc.subject | EMISSION LEVELS | |
dc.subject | CAPACITY | |
dc.subject | GHG | |
dc.subject | GLOBAL EMISSIONS REDUCTION | |
dc.subject | FOREST MODEL | |
dc.subject | EMISSION LEVELS | |
dc.subject | GLOBAL WARMING | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE | |
dc.subject | LAND USE CHANGE | |
dc.subject | CARBON SEQUESTRATION | |
dc.subject | SURFACE TEMPERATURE | |
dc.subject | FORESTRY | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS | |
dc.subject | TROPICAL FORESTS | |
dc.subject | SUGAR CANE | |
dc.subject | CARBON SINK | |
dc.subject | CLIMATE CHANGE | |
dc.subject | HISTORICAL EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | FOREST LOSS | |
dc.subject | FOREST CARBON STOCK | |
dc.subject | GAS EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | ENERGY POLICY | |
dc.subject | PRECIPITATION | |
dc.subject | CULTIVATED LAND | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS REDUCTION | |
dc.subject | CLIMATE SENSITIVITY | |
dc.subject | GREENHOUSE GASES | |
dc.subject | CARBON PRICES | |
dc.subject | CARBON EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | LAND USE | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS | |
dc.subject | AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | FOREST CARBON | |
dc.subject | GREENHOUSE | |
dc.subject | EMISSION | |
dc.subject | CARBON PRICE | |
dc.subject | LEAD | |
dc.subject | ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS | |
dc.subject | FOREST SECTORS | |
dc.subject | ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS | |
dc.subject | IPCC | |
dc.subject | CLIMATE CHANGE | |
dc.subject | DROUGHT | |
dc.subject | AIR MOISTURE | |
dc.subject | EMISSION PATHWAYS | |
dc.subject | LAND COVER CHANGE | |
dc.subject | RADIATIVE FORCING | |
dc.subject | FOREST DYNAMICS | |
dc.subject | CLIMATE | |
dc.subject | DEFORESTATION | |
dc.subject | SOLAR RADIATION | |
dc.subject | FORESTS | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE | |
dc.subject | EMISSION PATHWAYS | |
dc.subject | FOREST CARBON STOCKS | |
dc.subject | ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS | |
dc.subject | CLIMATE SYSTEM | |
dc.subject | TROPICAL DEFORESTATION | |
dc.subject | CARBON PRICE | |
dc.subject | CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION | |
dc.subject | HISTORICAL EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | FOREST | |
dc.subject | CARBON SEQUESTRATION | |
dc.subject | OZONE CONCENTRATION | |
dc.subject | GLOBAL EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | CARBON FLUXES | |
dc.subject | FERTILIZATION | |
dc.subject | GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE | |
dc.subject | ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE | |
dc.subject | ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS | |
dc.subject | FOREST SECTOR | |
dc.subject | ENERGY PRODUCTION | |
dc.subject | WOODY BIOMASS | |
dc.subject | PROTEINS | |
dc.subject | ENERGY EFFICIENCY | |
dc.subject | FOREST METEOROLOGY | |
dc.subject | BIOMASS ENERGY | |
dc.subject | CARBON PRICES | |
dc.subject | ENERGY PRODUCTION | |
dc.subject | COMBUSTION | |
dc.subject | CARBON STOCK | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION | |
dc.subject | NITROGEN | |
dc.subject | OZONE | |
dc.subject | ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE | |
dc.subject | WOODY BIOMASS | |
dc.subject | CARBON STOCKS | |
dc.subject | TROPOSPHERIC OZONE | |
dc.subject | ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS | |
dc.subject | RELATIVE HUMIDITY | |
dc.subject | RAIN | |
dc.subject | CLIMATE SYSTEM | |
dc.subject | FOREST PLANTATIONS | |
dc.subject | GCM | |
dc.subject | CARBON SINK | |
dc.subject | SURFACE TEMPERATURE | |
dc.subject | AIR MOISTURE | |
dc.subject | GASES | |
dc.subject | CARBON TAX | |
dc.subject | FOREST AREA | |
dc.subject | FOREST AREA | |
dc.subject | GLOBAL FOREST | |
dc.subject | AFFORESTATION | |
dc.subject | LAND‐USE | |
dc.subject | WIND SPEED | |
dc.subject | PRICES | |
dc.subject | NEGATIVE IMPACTS | |
dc.subject | BENEFITS | |
dc.subject | EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE | |
dc.subject | SURFACE ALBEDO | |
dc.subject | ENERGY | |
dc.title | Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World | en |
dc.title.subtitle | An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors | en |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.type | Document de travail | fr |
dc.type | Documento de trabajo | es |
dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
okr.date.disclosure | 2015-11-09 | |
okr.doctype | Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper | |
okr.doctype | Publications & Research | |
okr.docurl | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25250682/climate-change-impacts-mitigation-developing-world-integrated-assessment-agriculture-forestry-sectors | |
okr.identifier.doi | 10.1596/1813-9450-7477 | |
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum | 090224b08400b01f_2_0 | |
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum | 25250682 | |
okr.identifier.report | WPS7477 | |
okr.imported | true | |
okr.language.supported | en | |
okr.pdfurl | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/11/05/090224b0831968a1/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Climate0change0and0forestry0sectors.pdf | en |
okr.topic | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Climate Change Economics | |
okr.topic | Energy :: Energy and Environment | |
okr.topic | Environment :: Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases | |
okr.topic | Agriculture :: Climate Change and Agriculture | |
okr.topic | Agriculture :: Forestry Management | |
okr.unit | World Bank Group’s Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solutions Area | |
relation.isSeriesOfPublication | 26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87 |
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