Publication:
Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors

dc.contributor.author Havlík, Petr
dc.contributor.author Valin, Hugo
dc.contributor.author Gusti, Mykola
dc.contributor.author Schmid, Erwin
dc.contributor.author Leclère, David
dc.contributor.author Forsell, Nicklas
dc.contributor.author Herrero, Mario
dc.contributor.author Khabarov, Nikolay
dc.contributor.author Mosnier, Aline
dc.contributor.author Cantele, Matthew
dc.contributor.author Obersteiner, Michael
dc.date.accessioned 2015-12-18T19:32:32Z
dc.date.available 2015-12-18T19:32:32Z
dc.date.issued 2015-11
dc.description.abstract This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest. en
dc.identifier http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25250682/climate-change-impacts-mitigation-developing-world-integrated-assessment-agriculture-forestry-sectors
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23441
dc.language English
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7477
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder World Bank
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject ALBEDO
dc.subject PHOTOSYNTHESIS
dc.subject DIVERGENCE
dc.subject EMISSIONS REDUCTION
dc.subject FOREST DEGRADATION
dc.subject ALTITUDE
dc.subject EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE
dc.subject EMISSION ABATEMENT
dc.subject TEMPERATURE
dc.subject CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subject FOREST MANAGEMENT
dc.subject ABSORPTION
dc.subject RELATIVE HUMIDITY
dc.subject GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subject WIND SPEED
dc.subject CARBON
dc.subject GLOBAL WARMING
dc.subject CONCENTRATES
dc.subject ESTIMATES OF CARBON
dc.subject METEOROLOGY
dc.subject WIND
dc.subject EMISSIONS
dc.subject FOREST PLANTATIONS
dc.subject ATMOSPHERE
dc.subject INCENTIVES
dc.subject GHGS
dc.subject EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
dc.subject GAS
dc.subject GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subject CLOUDINESS
dc.subject HUMIDITY
dc.subject RADIATIVE FORCING
dc.subject GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subject CARBON CYCLE FEEDBACKS
dc.subject BIOSPHERE
dc.subject SOLAR RADIATION
dc.subject EMISSION REDUCTIONS
dc.subject LAND USE
dc.subject AIR
dc.subject GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subject CARBON CYCLE
dc.subject ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION
dc.subject OIL PALM
dc.subject EMISSIONS ABATEMENT
dc.subject CARBON CAPTURE
dc.subject LAND USE CHANGE
dc.subject EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE
dc.subject FERTILIZERS
dc.subject RADIATION
dc.subject BIOMASS
dc.subject CARBON NEUTRAL
dc.subject FOREST SECTOR
dc.subject CO2
dc.subject GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION
dc.subject TROPICS
dc.subject ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION
dc.subject EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE
dc.subject NEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subject EMISSION INCREASE
dc.subject BIOMASS RESOURCES
dc.subject EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE
dc.subject CARBON CAPTURE
dc.subject ENERGY SOURCES
dc.subject EMISSION LEVELS
dc.subject CAPACITY
dc.subject GHG
dc.subject GLOBAL EMISSIONS REDUCTION
dc.subject FOREST MODEL
dc.subject EMISSION LEVELS
dc.subject GLOBAL WARMING
dc.subject EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE
dc.subject LAND USE CHANGE
dc.subject CARBON SEQUESTRATION
dc.subject SURFACE TEMPERATURE
dc.subject FORESTRY
dc.subject EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
dc.subject TROPICAL FORESTS
dc.subject SUGAR CANE
dc.subject CARBON SINK
dc.subject CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject HISTORICAL EMISSIONS
dc.subject FOREST LOSS
dc.subject FOREST CARBON STOCK
dc.subject GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subject ENERGY POLICY
dc.subject PRECIPITATION
dc.subject CULTIVATED LAND
dc.subject EMISSIONS REDUCTION
dc.subject CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
dc.subject GREENHOUSE GASES
dc.subject CARBON PRICES
dc.subject CARBON EMISSIONS
dc.subject LAND USE
dc.subject EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
dc.subject AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS
dc.subject FOREST CARBON
dc.subject GREENHOUSE
dc.subject EMISSION
dc.subject CARBON PRICE
dc.subject LEAD
dc.subject ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS
dc.subject FOREST SECTORS
dc.subject ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subject IPCC
dc.subject CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject DROUGHT
dc.subject AIR MOISTURE
dc.subject EMISSION PATHWAYS
dc.subject LAND COVER CHANGE
dc.subject RADIATIVE FORCING
dc.subject FOREST DYNAMICS
dc.subject CLIMATE
dc.subject DEFORESTATION
dc.subject SOLAR RADIATION
dc.subject FORESTS
dc.subject EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE
dc.subject EMISSION PATHWAYS
dc.subject FOREST CARBON STOCKS
dc.subject ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subject CLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subject TROPICAL DEFORESTATION
dc.subject CARBON PRICE
dc.subject CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subject HISTORICAL EMISSIONS
dc.subject FOREST
dc.subject CARBON SEQUESTRATION
dc.subject OZONE CONCENTRATION
dc.subject GLOBAL EMISSIONS
dc.subject CARBON FLUXES
dc.subject FERTILIZATION
dc.subject GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE
dc.subject ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS
dc.subject FOREST SECTOR
dc.subject ENERGY PRODUCTION
dc.subject WOODY BIOMASS
dc.subject PROTEINS
dc.subject ENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subject FOREST METEOROLOGY
dc.subject BIOMASS ENERGY
dc.subject CARBON PRICES
dc.subject ENERGY PRODUCTION
dc.subject COMBUSTION
dc.subject CARBON STOCK
dc.subject EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION
dc.subject NITROGEN
dc.subject OZONE
dc.subject ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE
dc.subject WOODY BIOMASS
dc.subject CARBON STOCKS
dc.subject TROPOSPHERIC OZONE
dc.subject ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS
dc.subject RELATIVE HUMIDITY
dc.subject RAIN
dc.subject CLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subject FOREST PLANTATIONS
dc.subject GCM
dc.subject CARBON SINK
dc.subject SURFACE TEMPERATURE
dc.subject AIR MOISTURE
dc.subject GASES
dc.subject CARBON TAX
dc.subject FOREST AREA
dc.subject FOREST AREA
dc.subject GLOBAL FOREST
dc.subject AFFORESTATION
dc.subject LAND‐USE
dc.subject WIND SPEED
dc.subject PRICES
dc.subject NEGATIVE IMPACTS
dc.subject BENEFITS
dc.subject EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE
dc.subject SURFACE ALBEDO
dc.subject ENERGY
dc.title Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World en
dc.title.subtitle An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors en
dc.type Working Paper en
dc.type Document de travail fr
dc.type Documento de trabajo es
dspace.entity.type Publication
okr.date.disclosure 2015-11-09
okr.doctype Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctype Publications & Research
okr.docurl http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25250682/climate-change-impacts-mitigation-developing-world-integrated-assessment-agriculture-forestry-sectors
okr.identifier.doi 10.1596/1813-9450-7477
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum 090224b08400b01f_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum 25250682
okr.identifier.report WPS7477
okr.imported true
okr.language.supported en
okr.pdfurl http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/11/05/090224b0831968a1/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Climate0change0and0forestry0sectors.pdf en
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Climate Change Economics
okr.topic Energy :: Energy and Environment
okr.topic Environment :: Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases
okr.topic Agriculture :: Climate Change and Agriculture
okr.topic Agriculture :: Forestry Management
okr.unit World Bank Group’s Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solutions Area
relation.isSeriesOfPublication 26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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