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Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors

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dc.contributor.authorHavlĆ­k, Petr
dc.contributor.authorValin, Hugo
dc.contributor.authorGusti, Mykola
dc.contributor.authorSchmid, Erwin
dc.contributor.authorLeclĆØre, David
dc.contributor.authorForsell, Nicklas
dc.contributor.authorHerrero, Mario
dc.contributor.authorKhabarov, Nikolay
dc.contributor.authorMosnier, Aline
dc.contributor.authorCantele, Matthew
dc.contributor.authorObersteiner, Michael
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-18T19:32:32Z
dc.date.available2015-12-18T19:32:32Z
dc.date.issued2015-11
dc.description.abstractThis paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2Ā°C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25250682/climate-change-impacts-mitigation-developing-world-integrated-assessment-agriculture-forestry-sectors
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7477
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/23441
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7477
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectALBEDO
dc.subjectPHOTOSYNTHESIS
dc.subjectDIVERGENCE
dc.subjectEMISSIONS REDUCTION
dc.subjectFOREST DEGRADATION
dc.subjectALTITUDE
dc.subjectEMISSIONS FROM LAND USE
dc.subjectEMISSION ABATEMENT
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subjectFOREST MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectABSORPTION
dc.subjectRELATIVE HUMIDITY
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subjectWIND SPEED
dc.subjectCARBON
dc.subjectGLOBAL WARMING
dc.subjectCONCENTRATES
dc.subjectESTIMATES OF CARBON
dc.subjectMETEOROLOGY
dc.subjectWIND
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectFOREST PLANTATIONS
dc.subjectATMOSPHERE
dc.subjectINCENTIVES
dc.subjectGHGS
dc.subjectEVAPOTRANSPIRATION
dc.subjectGAS
dc.subjectGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectCLOUDINESS
dc.subjectHUMIDITY
dc.subjectRADIATIVE FORCING
dc.subjectGLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subjectCARBON CYCLE FEEDBACKS
dc.subjectBIOSPHERE
dc.subjectSOLAR RADIATION
dc.subjectEMISSION REDUCTIONS
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectAIR
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectCARBON CYCLE
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION
dc.subjectOIL PALM
dc.subjectEMISSIONS ABATEMENT
dc.subjectCARBON CAPTURE
dc.subjectLAND USE CHANGE
dc.subjectEMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE
dc.subjectFERTILIZERS
dc.subjectRADIATION
dc.subjectBIOMASS
dc.subjectCARBON NEUTRAL
dc.subjectFOREST SECTOR
dc.subjectCO2
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION
dc.subjectTROPICS
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION
dc.subjectEMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subjectEMISSION INCREASE
dc.subjectBIOMASS RESOURCES
dc.subjectEMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE
dc.subjectCARBON CAPTURE
dc.subjectENERGY SOURCES
dc.subjectEMISSION LEVELS
dc.subjectCAPACITY
dc.subjectGHG
dc.subjectGLOBAL EMISSIONS REDUCTION
dc.subjectFOREST MODEL
dc.subjectEMISSION LEVELS
dc.subjectGLOBAL WARMING
dc.subjectEMISSIONS FROM LAND USE
dc.subjectLAND USE CHANGE
dc.subjectCARBON SEQUESTRATION
dc.subjectSURFACE TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectFORESTRY
dc.subjectEMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
dc.subjectTROPICAL FORESTS
dc.subjectSUGAR CANE
dc.subjectCARBON SINK
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectHISTORICAL EMISSIONS
dc.subjectFOREST LOSS
dc.subjectFOREST CARBON STOCK
dc.subjectGAS EMISSIONS
dc.subjectENERGY POLICY
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectCULTIVATED LAND
dc.subjectEMISSIONS REDUCTION
dc.subjectCLIMATE SENSITIVITY
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GASES
dc.subjectCARBON PRICES
dc.subjectCARBON EMISSIONS
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectEMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS
dc.subjectFOREST CARBON
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE
dc.subjectEMISSION
dc.subjectCARBON PRICE
dc.subjectLEAD
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS
dc.subjectFOREST SECTORS
dc.subjectANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectDROUGHT
dc.subjectAIR MOISTURE
dc.subjectEMISSION PATHWAYS
dc.subjectLAND COVER CHANGE
dc.subjectRADIATIVE FORCING
dc.subjectFOREST DYNAMICS
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectDEFORESTATION
dc.subjectSOLAR RADIATION
dc.subjectFORESTS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS FROM LAND USE
dc.subjectEMISSION PATHWAYS
dc.subjectFOREST CARBON STOCKS
dc.subjectANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectCLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subjectTROPICAL DEFORESTATION
dc.subjectCARBON PRICE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subjectHISTORICAL EMISSIONS
dc.subjectFOREST
dc.subjectCARBON SEQUESTRATION
dc.subjectOZONE CONCENTRATION
dc.subjectGLOBAL EMISSIONS
dc.subjectCARBON FLUXES
dc.subjectFERTILIZATION
dc.subjectGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE
dc.subjectANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS
dc.subjectFOREST SECTOR
dc.subjectENERGY PRODUCTION
dc.subjectWOODY BIOMASS
dc.subjectPROTEINS
dc.subjectENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectFOREST METEOROLOGY
dc.subjectBIOMASS ENERGY
dc.subjectCARBON PRICES
dc.subjectENERGY PRODUCTION
dc.subjectCOMBUSTION
dc.subjectCARBON STOCK
dc.subjectEMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION
dc.subjectNITROGEN
dc.subjectOZONE
dc.subjectANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE
dc.subjectWOODY BIOMASS
dc.subjectCARBON STOCKS
dc.subjectTROPOSPHERIC OZONE
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS
dc.subjectRELATIVE HUMIDITY
dc.subjectRAIN
dc.subjectCLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subjectFOREST PLANTATIONS
dc.subjectGCM
dc.subjectCARBON SINK
dc.subjectSURFACE TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectAIR MOISTURE
dc.subjectGASES
dc.subjectCARBON TAX
dc.subjectFOREST AREA
dc.subjectFOREST AREA
dc.subjectGLOBAL FOREST
dc.subjectAFFORESTATION
dc.subjectLANDā€USE
dc.subjectWIND SPEED
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACTS
dc.subjectBENEFITS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE
dc.subjectSURFACE ALBEDO
dc.subjectENERGY
dc.titleClimate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing Worlden
dc.title.subtitleAn Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectorsen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleClimate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors
okr.date.disclosure2015-11-09
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:23:40.740605Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25250682/climate-change-impacts-mitigation-developing-world-integrated-assessment-agriculture-forestry-sectors
okr.guid866881467997281798
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7477
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b08400b01f_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum25250682
okr.identifier.reportWPS7477
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/11/05/090224b0831968a1/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Climate0change0and0forestry0sectors.pdfen
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Climate Change Economics
okr.topicEnergy::Energy and Environment
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases
okr.topicAgriculture::Climate Change and Agriculture
okr.topicAgriculture::Forestry Management
okr.unitWorld Bank Groupā€™s Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solutions Area
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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