Publication:
The Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorMa, Lin
dc.contributor.authorShapira, Gil
dc.contributor.authorde Walque, Damien
dc.contributor.authorDo, Quy-Toan
dc.contributor.authorFriedman, Jed
dc.contributor.authorLevchenko, Andrei A.
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-02T13:16:06Z
dc.date.available2021-06-02T13:16:06Z
dc.date.issued2021-05
dc.description.abstractIn lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality, and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. The findings show that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children’s lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The ratio stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle and upper-middle income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries lockdowns can actually produce net increases in mortality. In contrast, the optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones, and never produces a net mortality increase.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/990621622121589737/The-Intergenerational-Mortality-Tradeoff-of-COVID-19-Lockdown-Policies
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9677
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/35638
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9677
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectPANDEMIC RESPONSE
dc.subjectLOCKDOWN
dc.subjectCHILD MORTALITY
dc.subjectSIR-MACRO
dc.subjectECONOMIC DOWNTURN
dc.subjectPANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.titleThe Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policiesen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleThe Intergenerational Mortality Tradeoff of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies
okr.date.disclosure2021-05-27
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T10:39:20.818515Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/990621622121589737/The-Intergenerational-Mortality-Tradeoff-of-COVID-19-Lockdown-Policies
okr.guid990621622121589737
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9677
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b08863242f_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33116866
okr.identifier.reportWPS9677
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/990621622121589737/pdf/The-Intergenerational-Mortality-Tradeoff-of-COVID-19-Lockdown-Policies.pdfen
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Early Child and Children's Health
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Employment and Shared Growth
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty and Health
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group, Development Economics
relation.isAuthorOfPublication41f6725d-021b-5878-8750-949260b0f2ca
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb5740416-f4ef-5235-974a-47bd257d61a4
relation.isAuthorOfPublication5b6f36d3-c0a4-5a3a-b01c-d543e4573c19
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb5740416-f4ef-5235-974a-47bd257d61a4
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
The-Intergenerational-Mortality-Tradeoff-of-COVID-19-Lockdown-Policies.pdf
Size:
3.51 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
English PDF Revised
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Policy Research Working Papers