Publication:
The Global Trade Slowdown : Cyclical or Structural?

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dc.contributor.authorConstantinescu, Cristina
dc.contributor.authorRuta, Michele
dc.contributor.authorMattoo, Aaditya
dc.date.accessioned2015-01-07T21:55:02Z
dc.date.available2015-01-07T21:55:02Z
dc.date.issued2015-01
dc.description.abstractThis paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of gross domestic product, but also because of a structural change in the trade-gross domestic product relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and gross domestic product.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23179583/global-trade-slowdown-cyclical-or-structural
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7158
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/21144
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank Group, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7158
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectANTIDUMPING
dc.subjectAVERAGE TRADE
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectBORDER MEASURES
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOODS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY
dc.subjectCONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectCOUNTERVAILING DUTIES
dc.subjectCREDIT CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectCUSTOMS
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEBT CRISIS
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC INPUTS
dc.subjectDURABLE GOODS
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF TRADE
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectEUROPEAN UNION
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORT SUBSIDIES
dc.subjectEXPORT VOLUMES
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectFINAL GOODS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN VALUE
dc.subjectFUTURE PROSPECTS
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGLOBAL TRADE
dc.subjectGLOBALIZATION
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROSS EXPORTS
dc.subjectGROWTH IN TRADE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectIMPORT LICENSES
dc.subjectIMPORT PROTECTION
dc.subjectIMPORT SHARE
dc.subjectIMPORT VOLUME
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
dc.subjectINDUSTRIALIZATION
dc.subjectINTERNAL TRADE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE STATISTICS
dc.subjectINVENTORY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPROTECTIONISM
dc.subjectPROTECTIONIST
dc.subjectPROTECTIONIST MEASURES
dc.subjectRAPID EXPANSION
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectRECESSION
dc.subjectREGRESSION ANALYSIS
dc.subjectSHARE OF WORLD TRADE
dc.subjectSOVEREIGN DEBT
dc.subjectSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.subjectTRADE ALERT
dc.subjectTRADE BARRIERS
dc.subjectTRADE FLOWS
dc.subjectTRADE INTEGRATION
dc.subjectTRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectTRADE MEASURES
dc.subjectTRADE PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectTRADE POLICIES
dc.subjectTRADE PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectTRADE REGIME
dc.subjectTRADE RELATIONSHIP
dc.subjectTRADE VOLUMES
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectVERTICAL SPECIALIZATION
dc.subjectVOLUME OF TRADE
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
dc.subjectWTO
dc.titleThe Global Trade Slowdown : Cyclical or Structural?en
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleThe Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?
okr.date.disclosure2015-01-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T10:23:55.072911Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23179583/global-trade-slowdown-cyclical-or-structural
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.guid991561468127799318
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7158
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b084340cc8_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum23179583
okr.identifier.reportWPS7158
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/01/07/000158349_20150107092019/Rendered/PDF/WPS7158.pdfen
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Free Trade
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Emerging Markets
okr.topicLaw and Development::Trade Law
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.unitTrade and International Integration Team, Development Research Group
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationf938bd19-ef80-50c5-9b58-e8429fce3b91
relation.isAuthorOfPublication1e63409b-8428-4de9-8942-70e823b051f4
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryf938bd19-ef80-50c5-9b58-e8429fce3b91
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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