Publication: South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2015: Making the Most of Cheap Oil
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2015-04
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2015-04-14
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The South Asia Economic Focus is a biannual economic update presenting recent economic developments and a near term economic outlook for South Asia. It includes a Focus section presenting more in depth analysis of an economic topic of relevance for stability, growth and prosperity in the region as well as country briefs covering Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It concludes with a data section providing key economic indicators for South Asia "at a glance". Overall, it aims at providing important background information and timely analysis of key indicators and economic and financial developments of relevance to World Bank Group operations and interaction with counterparts in the region, particularly during annual and spring meeting.
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“World Bank. 2015. South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2015: Making the Most of Cheap Oil. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21735 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Regional growth is expected to surpass 7 percent from 2018 onwards. Robust domestic demand, an uptick in exports, and steady FDI inflows underlie this positive outlook. But with financial sector risks remaining, creating financing opportunities for private investment remains a challenge. Pressures against international trade are mounting. The negotiation of mega-regional trade agreements stalled, the number of protectionist measures has increased, and existing agreements may be reconsidered. South Asia was already less integrated in global merchandise trade than other regions. In light of current pressures, a legitimate question is whether it should focus on exports as a driver of economic growth and job creation. However, the prospects for the region are better than it seems. The stalled mega-regional trade agreements, which did not include any South Asian country, were expected to reduce South Asia’s competitiveness. Simulations on the impact of hypothetical new trade barriers applied across the board suggest that the harm for the region would be limited. And in a scenario where hypothetical new trade barriers would be applied selectively, South Asia could actually benefit from trade diversion. The region also stands to gain from the observed growth recovery in advanced economies, because they are the main markets for its exports. The current globalization backlash should thus not dissuade South Asian countries from having a stronger outward orientation. But the gains for the region would be larger if its exports were more diversified and its supply response were more elastic.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-04-07)South Asia remained the fastest growing region in the world last year, but growth remained driven by domestic demand – and not exports – which resulted in another year of double-digit volume growth of imports. The value of imports was further pushed up by rising oil prices. The widening current account deficits became more difficult to finance and these tensions triggered capital outflows, depreciation pressures, increases in credit default swap spreads, and falling stock prices. In recent months, however, the data shows a more positive picture. The growth outlook for South Asia assumes that the recent acceleration of export growth continues and that import growth slows. Under these conditions, GDP growth is expected to accelerate. Under current circumstances fiscal tightening is appropriate, not only to make government debt more sustainable, but also to bring the economy back into balance, and thus become less vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in international financial markets. Using a gravity model, we show that South Asian countries export only a third of their potential. If countries export closer to potential, not only would short-term adjustments be easier, but also the long-term growth potential would be higher. Closing the export gap is an essential step in addressing both short-term and long-term macroeconomic challenges in South Asia.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2018(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-04-15)South Asia is again the fastest growing region in the world. And growth should further strengthen to 7.1 percent on average in 2019-20, reflecting an improvement across most of the region. But are countries generating enough jobs? The demographic transition is swelling the ranks of the working-age population across most of South Asia. For this report, crucial information about employment in South Asia is extracted in a transparent and replicable way from over 60 surveys and censuses covering the period from 2001 onwards. The analysis of this information reveals that employment does respond to economic growth in the short term, implying that growth is not jobless. It also appears that countries in South Asia have created large numbers of jobs over the years. However, the nature of the jobs created is not fully encouraging, and the analysis shows that rapid growth alone will not be sufficient to bring South Asian employment rates to the levels observed elsewhere in the developing world. In addition to high growth, more and better jobs need to be created for every percentage point of growth. The results in this chapter call for better employment data, and for a focus on the economic policies that can boost job creation.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2016(2016-04-10)South Asia by now has consolidated its position as fastest growing developing region in the world. Against the backdrop of relative external stability and some monetary policy space, growth is expected to continue a gradual acceleration on the back of strong investment performance and a return to solid contributions from export growth. India remains the motor of the region and on its way closer to 8 percent real GDP growth, though on a relatively more gradual path than previously anticipated. At the same time, economies across the region will have to tackle fading tailwinds and face ever more binding domestic constraints in the form of persistently high fiscal deficits together with high debt levels as well as some vulnerabilities in the financial sector. The focus section of this report will delve deeper into evaluating the quality of fiscal consolidation and policy, trying to assess short and longer term impact across major South Asian economies.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-10-04)The South Asia Economic Focus is a biannual economic update presenting recent economic developments and a near term economic outlook for South Asia. It includes a Focus section presenting more in depth analysis of an economic topic of relevance for stability, growth and prosperity in the region as well as country briefs covering Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It concludes with a data section providing key economic indicators for South Asia "at a glance". Overall, it aims at providing important background information and timely analysis of key indicators and economic and financial developments of relevance to World Bank Group operations and interaction with counterparts in the region, particularly during annual and spring meeting
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