Publication: Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use
Date
2003-03
ISSN
Published
2003-03
Author(s)
Guindon, G. Emmanuel
Boisclair, David
Abstract
This paper first estimates the number of
tobacco users in 2000 and cigarette consumption from 1970 to
2000 by regions and levels of development and briefly
discusses the advantages and disadvantages of estimating
tobacco use on the basis of prevalence surveys or aggregate
data. Secondly, prevalence (and its associated number of
smokers) and cigarette consumption (total and per capita)
are projected in the future using several scenarios of
changes in tobacco use (prevalence and cigarette
consumption), as well as different assumptions about
population and income growth. The results show that even if
all countries immediately implement a comprehensive set of
tobacco control policies, the reduction in the number of
tobacco users and the total consumption of cigarettes will
be gradual. This should give comfort to farmers and others
who fear the impact of tobacco control on their livelihoods.
It is however, discouraging news for public health, since it
implies that the number of tobacco attributable deaths will
continue to rise for decades to come.
Citation
“Guindon, G. Emmanuel; Boisclair, David. 2003. Past, Current and Future Trends in Tobacco Use. HNP discussion paper;. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/d27beb56-8016-57f8-8a73-e8c5292bfa14 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”