Publication:
Global Trade Watch 2017: Trade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?

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dc.contributor.authorConstantinescu, Cristina
dc.contributor.authorMulabdic, Alen
dc.contributor.authorRuta, Michele
dc.contributor.authorMattoo, Aaditya
dc.date.accessioned2018-05-04T15:02:51Z
dc.date.available2018-05-04T15:02:51Z
dc.date.issued2018-05-01
dc.description.abstractTrade rebounded in 2017, with trade volume growing at 4.3 percent in 2017—the fastest rate in 6 years. The recovery of trade is not limited to a few regions but is widespread, suggesting that we may be at a turning point. The largest contributions to global trade growth have come from East Asian countries in the developing world and the Euro area in the developed world. Merchandise trade, which in recent years has been less resilient than services trade, picked up, growing by 4.5 percent in 2017. Cyclical factors drove better trade performance in 2017. Trade grew faster because real gross domestic product grew faster. Investment growth played a critical role because investment is the most import intensive component of aggregate demand, and capital goods production has longer global value chains (GVCs). Preliminary monthly data indicate that the import values of capital goods such as machinery and electrical equipment grew in 2017 at the fastest rates since 2012 and that they have been the most significant contributors to 2017 nonfuel import growth in the European Union and United States. The improved performance of trade may be widespread, but it is fragile. Some of the factors underlying the global trade slowdown of recent years—weak growth in GVCs and high trade policy uncertainty—are still present. In particular, there are serious risks in the trade policy domain. The share of merchandise trade that trade-restrictive measures cover remained stable at approximately 1 percent in 2017. But the portion due to trade remedy initiations—a harbinger of future protection — has increased significantly since 2015, and there are risks of policy reversals in major markets. At the same time, new deep trade agreements have recently entered into force and others are being negotiated.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/934031525380654860/Global-trade-watch-2017-trade-defies-policy-uncertainty-will-it-last
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/29785
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/29785
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectTRADE VOLUME
dc.subjectGLOBAL VALUE CHAINS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectSERVICES TRADE
dc.subjectCOMPETITION POLICY
dc.subjectDEEP TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AREA
dc.subjectTRADE INTEGRATION
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TARIFFS
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.titleGlobal Trade Watch 2017en
dc.title.subtitleTrade Defies Policy Uncertainty–Will It Last?en
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleGlobal Trade Watch 2017
okr.date.disclosure2018-05-03
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-07T08:24:30.361892Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-08T16:11:41.639651Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-09T03:04:09.642165Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/934031525380654860/Global-trade-watch-2017-trade-defies-policy-uncertainty-will-it-last
okr.guid934031525380654860
okr.guid106831525380751230
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/29785
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/29785
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b0859a0ec6_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum29863019
okr.identifier.report125930
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/934031525380654860/pdf/125930-WP-v1-PUBLIC-14873-WB-GlobalTradeWatch-WEB.pdfen
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Intellectual Property Rights
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::International Trade and Trade Rules
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade and Regional Integration
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade and Services
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::World Trade Organization
okr.unitMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice; and Trade and International Integration Team of the Development Research Group
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryf938bd19-ef80-50c5-9b58-e8429fce3b91
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