Publication:
Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach

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dc.contributor.authorCuevas, Mario A.
dc.date.accessioned2013-08-05T19:04:55Z
dc.date.available2013-08-05T19:04:55Z
dc.date.issued2002-04
dc.description.abstractReal GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevas finds that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price of oil. This association is also robust in the presence of key economic policy variables. From 1970-80, when the underlying annual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12 percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potential GDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from 1981-2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the real price of oil was -5 percent, the underlying growth rate of potential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength of association between the underlying growth of oil prices and real GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s, suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine for future growth in Venezuela.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/04/1769435/potential-gdp-growth-venezuela-structural-time-series-approach
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2826
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/14807
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, D.C.
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No.2826
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES BONDS
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCPI
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC MODELING
dc.subjectECONOMETRICS
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DYNAMICS
dc.subjectECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC STATISTICS
dc.subjectECONOMIC TIME SERIES
dc.subjectENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGROWTH POTENTIAL
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectMULTIPLIER EFFECTS
dc.subjectOIL
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTS
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOIL SECTOR
dc.subjectOPEC
dc.subjectPOTENTIAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectPRICE OF OIL
dc.subjectQUOTAS
dc.subjectRANDOM WALK
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectTIME SERIES
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.titlePotential GDP Growth in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approachen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titlePotential GDP Growth in Venezuela: A Structural Time Series Approach
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:19:02.658673Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/04/1769435/potential-gdp-growth-venezuela-structural-time-series-approach
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.globalpracticeEnergy and Extractives
okr.guid485411468760794706
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2826
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000094946_0205010411327
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum1769435
okr.identifier.reportWPS2826
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2002/05/14/000094946_0205010411327/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.countryVenezuela, Republica Bolivariana de
okr.sectorOther Public Sector Management
okr.sectorPublic Administration, Law, and Justice
okr.topicEnergy::Energy Demand
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicOil Refining and Gas Industry
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Impact Evaluation
okr.topicEnvironmental Economics and Policies
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Reduction Strategies
okr.topicClimate Change
okr.unitOff of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
okr.volume1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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