Publication:
The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico : Uncertain Future, Robust Decisions

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2014-01-17T22:20:08Z
dc.date.available2014-01-17T22:20:08Z
dc.date.issued2013-01
dc.description.abstractThis documented case of climate change adaptation in Campeche Mexico grapples with a problem that is fundamental to addressing climate change risks in areas of high vulnerability, which is how to reach consensus and take decisions under an uncertain future. The state of Campeche in Mexico, is used as an example. With its long coastline, Campeche is highly vulnerable to current and projected future climate threats. Two different approaches to decision making under uncertainty have been explored. (i) A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach was used to systematically analyze expected impacts, identify and agree on a menu of adaptation measures, and prioritize those measures, using a powerful combination of solid scientific knowledge and local expertise. (ii) The real options theory approach was applied to selected adaptation alternatives, and the benefits of waiting were compared with the costs of delaying decisions. In general, options that were modular and flexible were found to lead to more robust and prudent adaptation measures. The specific results obtained in this work are less important than the overall tenor and spirit of the messages from these exercises. Most importantly both exercises SEA and real options demonstrated that involved actors are ultimately consistent and cautious in their approach to climate risks. An important lesson to emerge from this work is that there is merit in adopting multiple approaches to tackle problems where uncertainty looms large. When the answers converge there is likely to be greater confidence in the outcomes. A second and perhaps more important lesson is the need to identify all costs including the options foregone by embarking on an irreversible course of action.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17618011/campeche-mexico-case-climate-change-adaptation-uncertain-future-robust-decisions
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/16591
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/16591
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesLatin America and Caribbean Region Environment and Water Resources occasional paper series;
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectAERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PURPOSES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectAIR
dc.subjectAIR QUALITY
dc.subjectALTERNATIVE ENERGY
dc.subjectAMPHIBIANS
dc.subjectAQUACULTURE
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC MODELS
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA
dc.subjectBAROMETRIC PRESSURE
dc.subjectBASINS
dc.subjectBAY
dc.subjectBEACH
dc.subjectBEACH EROSION
dc.subjectBEACH PROFILE
dc.subjectBEACHES
dc.subjectBENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subjectBIODIVERSITY
dc.subjectBIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
dc.subjectBIOLOGICAL MONITORING
dc.subjectBIOLOGY
dc.subjectBIOSPHERE
dc.subjectBRACKISH WATER
dc.subjectCARBON
dc.subjectCARBON CAPTURE
dc.subjectCARBON EMISSION
dc.subjectCARBON SINK
dc.subjectCLASSIFICATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE RISKS
dc.subjectCLIMATE EVENT
dc.subjectCLIMATE IMPACTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE RISK
dc.subjectCLIMATE RISKS
dc.subjectCLIMATE THREATS
dc.subjectCLIMATE TRENDS
dc.subjectCLIMATIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectCO
dc.subjectCOAST
dc.subjectCOASTAL AREAS
dc.subjectCOASTAL CHANGE
dc.subjectCOASTAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectCOASTAL ECOSYSTEM
dc.subjectCOASTAL EROSION
dc.subjectCOASTAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectCOASTAL MONITORING
dc.subjectCOASTAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectCOASTAL STATES
dc.subjectCOASTAL SYSTEMS
dc.subjectCOASTAL WETLAND
dc.subjectCOASTAL WETLANDS
dc.subjectCOASTAL ZONE
dc.subjectCOASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectCOASTAL ZONES
dc.subjectCOASTLINE
dc.subjectCOASTLINES
dc.subjectCOASTS
dc.subjectCOLORS
dc.subjectCONSERVATION
dc.subjectCONSTRUCTION
dc.subjectCONTINENTS
dc.subjectCORAL
dc.subjectCORAL REEFS
dc.subjectCORROSION
dc.subjectCREATED WETLANDS
dc.subjectCROPS
dc.subjectCURRENTS
dc.subjectDAMS
dc.subjectDECISION MAKING
dc.subjectDELTA
dc.subjectDIKES
dc.subjectDRAINAGE
dc.subjectDRAINAGE SYSTEMS
dc.subjectDUNE
dc.subjectDUNES
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC VALUE
dc.subjectECONOMICS
dc.subjectECONOMISTS
dc.subjectECOSYSTEMS
dc.subjectEMISSION REDUCTION
dc.subjectENDANGERED SPECIES
dc.subjectENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectESTUARIES
dc.subjectESTUARY
dc.subjectEUTROPHICATION
dc.subjectEXTERNALITIES
dc.subjectEXTREME EVENTS
dc.subjectFIRE PREVENTION
dc.subjectFISH
dc.subjectFISH POPULATION
dc.subjectFISHERIES
dc.subjectFISHING
dc.subjectFLOODING
dc.subjectFLOODPLAINS
dc.subjectFLOODS
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOREST
dc.subjectFOREST FIRES
dc.subjectFORESTS
dc.subjectFRESHWATER
dc.subjectGAS
dc.subjectGAS PRODUCTION
dc.subjectGEOLOGY
dc.subjectGLACIERS
dc.subjectGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectGLOBAL TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE
dc.subjectGROUNDWATER
dc.subjectGULF
dc.subjectHABITAT DEGRADATION
dc.subjectHABITATS
dc.subjectHOUSING
dc.subjectHUMAN ACTIVITIES
dc.subjectHURRICANES
dc.subjectHYDROCARBON
dc.subjectHYDROCARBONS
dc.subjectHYDROGRAPHY
dc.subjectICE MASSES
dc.subjectIMAGES
dc.subjectINCUBATION
dc.subjectINDUSTRIAL EXPANSION
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectLAND AREA
dc.subjectLAND MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectLAND RECLAMATION
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectLAND USE CHANGE
dc.subjectLAND USE PLANS
dc.subjectLIQUID WASTE
dc.subjectLITTORAL
dc.subjectMANGROVE
dc.subjectMANGROVE FORESTS
dc.subjectMANGROVES
dc.subjectMARINE TURTLES
dc.subjectMEAN SEA LEVEL
dc.subjectMIGRATORY BIRDS
dc.subjectMITIGATION
dc.subjectNATIONAL CLIMATE
dc.subjectNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectNATIONAL SCALE
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCE
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectNUTRIENT
dc.subjectOCEAN CURRENT
dc.subjectOCEAN CURRENTS
dc.subjectOCEAN TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectOCEANS
dc.subjectOIL
dc.subjectOIL INDUSTRY
dc.subjectOIL RESERVES
dc.subjectOPTION VALUE
dc.subjectORGANIC LOADS
dc.subjectPEAK FLOWS
dc.subjectPERMIT REGULATIONS
dc.subjectPLANT SPECIES
dc.subjectPLAYA
dc.subjectPOLICY DECISIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY INSTRUMENTS
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLLUTION
dc.subjectPOPULATION DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPP
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION INTENSITY
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION PATTERNS
dc.subjectPRESENT VALUE
dc.subjectPRESERVATION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION COSTS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION PATTERNS
dc.subjectPUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subjectQUALITY STANDARDS
dc.subjectRAIN
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectRAINFALL EVENTS
dc.subjectRAINFALL INTENSITY
dc.subjectRAINWATER
dc.subjectRESERVOIRS
dc.subjectRESOURCE MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRESTORATION
dc.subjectRESTORATION PROGRAMS
dc.subjectRETROFITTING
dc.subjectRIVER
dc.subjectRIVER DELTAS
dc.subjectRUNOFF
dc.subjectRURAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectSALINITY
dc.subjectSALT MARSHES
dc.subjectSALTWATER INTRUSION
dc.subjectSATELLITE DATA
dc.subjectSATELLITE IMAGES
dc.subjectSCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE
dc.subjectSEA
dc.subjectSEA LEVEL
dc.subjectSEA LEVEL RISE
dc.subjectSEA LEVEL RISES
dc.subjectSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
dc.subjectSEA TURTLES
dc.subjectSEABED
dc.subjectSEAGRASSES
dc.subjectSEAS
dc.subjectSEASHORE
dc.subjectSEDIMENT
dc.subjectSEDIMENT TRANSPORT
dc.subjectSEDIMENTATION
dc.subjectSEDIMENTS
dc.subjectSHORE
dc.subjectSHORELINE
dc.subjectSPECIES
dc.subjectSPECIES DIVERSITY
dc.subjectSTORM SURGE
dc.subjectSTORM SURGES
dc.subjectSTORMS
dc.subjectSUBSTRATES
dc.subjectSURFACE TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectSURFACE WATERS
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectSWAMPS
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE RECORDS
dc.subjectTIDE
dc.subjectTIDES
dc.subjectTOPOGRAPHIC MAPS
dc.subjectTOPOGRAPHY
dc.subjectTROPICAL CYCLONES
dc.subjectTROPICAL DRY FOREST
dc.subjectTROPICAL STORMS
dc.subjectTSUNAMIS
dc.subjectTURTLE
dc.subjectUNDERGROUND WATER
dc.subjectVEGETATION
dc.subjectWASTE MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectWATER LEVELS
dc.subjectWATER QUALITY
dc.subjectWATER RESOURCES
dc.subjectWATER USE
dc.subjectWAVES
dc.subjectWEATHER CONDITIONS
dc.subjectWETLAND
dc.subjectWETLAND ECOSYSTEMS
dc.subjectWETLAND RESTORATION
dc.subjectWETLANDS
dc.subjectWIND
dc.subjectWINDS
dc.titleThe Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico : Uncertain Future, Robust Decisionsen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaClimate Change
okr.date.disclosure2013-04-23
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-05T11:43:58.177338Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17618011/campeche-mexico-case-climate-change-adaptation-uncertain-future-robust-decisions
okr.globalpracticeTransport and ICT
okr.globalpracticeEnvironment and Natural Resources
okr.globalpracticeWater
okr.guid701801468047797909
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000445729_20130423150032
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum17618011
okr.identifier.report76891
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/04/23/000445729_20130423150032/Rendered/PDF/768910WP0P14450aptation0in0Campeche.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.sectorAgriculture, fishing, and forestry :: Forestry
okr.sectorAgriculture, fishing, and forestry :: Irrigation and drainage
okr.sectorWater, sanitation and flood protection :: General water, sanitation and flood protection sector
okr.themeEnvironment and natural resource management
okr.themeEnvironment and natural resources management :: Climate change
okr.themeEnvironment and natural resources management :: Water resource management
okr.themeEnvironment and natural resources management :: Pollution management and environmental health
okr.themeEnvironment and natural resources management :: Other environment and natural resources management
okr.themeEnvironment and natural resources management :: Environmental policies and institutions
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases
okr.topicWater Resources::Wetlands
okr.topicEnvironment::Coastal and Marine Environment
okr.topicScience and Technology Development::Science of Climate Change
okr.topicEnvironmental Economics and Policies
okr.unitEnvironment (LCSEN)
okr.volume1 of 1
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