Publication:
Agreeing on Robust Decisions : New Processes for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

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dc.contributor.authorKalra, Nidhi
dc.contributor.authorHallegatte, Stephane
dc.contributor.authorLempert, Robert
dc.contributor.authorBrown, Casey
dc.contributor.authorFozzard, Adrian
dc.contributor.authorGill, Stuart
dc.contributor.authorShah, Ankur
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-25T21:59:54Z
dc.date.available2014-06-25T21:59:54Z
dc.date.issued2014-06
dc.description.abstractInvestment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties linked to climate change and other future conditions further challenges decision making by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. While decision makers can continue to use the decision metrics they have used in the past (such as net present value), alternative methodologies can improve decision processes, especially those that lead with analysis and end in agreement on decisions. Such "Agree-on-Decision" methods start by stress-testing options under a wide range of plausible conditions, without requiring us to agree ex ante on which conditions are more or less likely, and against a set of objectives or success metrics, without requiring us to agree ex ante on how to aggregate or weight them. As a result, these methods are easier to apply to contexts of large uncertainty or disagreement on values and objectives. This inverted process promotes consensus around better decisions and can help in managing uncertainty. Analyses performed in this way let decision makers make the decision and inform them on (1) the conditions under which an option or project is vulnerable; (2) the tradeoffs between robustness and cost, or between various objectives; and (3) the flexibility of various options to respond to changes in the future. In doing so, they put decision makers back in the driver's seat. A growing set of case studies shows that these methods can be applied in real-world contexts and do not need to be more costly or complicated than traditional approaches. Finally, while this paper focuses on climate change, a better treatment of uncertainties and disagreement would in general improve decision making and development outcomes.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19616379/agreeing-robust-decisions-new-processes-decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6906
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/18772
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6906
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectABATEMENT
dc.subjectABATEMENT COSTS
dc.subjectAFFORESTATION
dc.subjectAIRPORTS
dc.subjectAPPROACH TO CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectATMOSPHERE
dc.subjectATMOSPHERE-OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION
dc.subjectBENEFICIARIES
dc.subjectCAR
dc.subjectCAR CRASH
dc.subjectCARBON BUDGET
dc.subjectCARBON EMISSIONS
dc.subjectCARBON PRICE
dc.subjectCARS
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGES
dc.subjectCLIMATE CONDITIONS
dc.subjectCLIMATE DATA
dc.subjectCLIMATE EFFECTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE EXPERTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE FACTORS
dc.subjectCLIMATE FORECASTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE INFORMATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODEL
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODELERS
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODELS
dc.subjectCLIMATE POLICIES
dc.subjectCLIMATE PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectCLIMATE RESPONSE
dc.subjectCLIMATE RISKS
dc.subjectCLIMATE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectCLIMATE SCIENTISTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE SENSITIVITY
dc.subjectCLIMATE SIGNAL
dc.subjectCLIMATE STATISTICS
dc.subjectCLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subjectCLIMATE THREATS
dc.subjectCLIMATE UNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABILITY
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABLES
dc.subjectCLIMATES
dc.subjectCLIMATIC EFFECTS
dc.subjectCLOUDS
dc.subjectCO
dc.subjectCO2
dc.subjectCONGESTION COSTS
dc.subjectCONVECTION
dc.subjectCORROSION
dc.subjectCOST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subjectCOST OF CARBON
dc.subjectCOST-BENEFIT
dc.subjectCOST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subjectCREDIBILITY
dc.subjectCROP INSURANCE
dc.subjectCROSSING
dc.subjectCROSSINGS
dc.subjectDAMAGES
dc.subjectDEEP UNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectDEGREE OF RISK
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATES
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS
dc.subjectDRAINAGE
dc.subjectDRIVERS
dc.subjectDROUGHT
dc.subjectECONOMIC ANALYSES
dc.subjectECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECOSYSTEM
dc.subjectEMISSION
dc.subjectEMISSION REDUCTION
dc.subjectEMISSION REDUCTION TARGET
dc.subjectEMISSION SCENARIO
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS REDUCTION
dc.subjectEMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS SCENARIOS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS TRENDS
dc.subjectENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectENERGY USE
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL COSTS
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS
dc.subjectEXCESSIVE RAIN
dc.subjectFEASIBILITY
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFLOODS
dc.subjectFOREST
dc.subjectFOREST MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFORESTRY
dc.subjectFORESTRY SECTOR
dc.subjectFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectFUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectFUTURES
dc.subjectGHG
dc.subjectGLACIERS
dc.subjectGLOBAL CLIMATE
dc.subjectGLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectGLOBAL WARMING
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT POLICIES
dc.subjectGREEN BELT
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GASES
dc.subjectHOUSING AFFORDABILITY
dc.subjectHURRICANE
dc.subjectHURRICANE PROTECTION
dc.subjectHURRICANES
dc.subjectICE SHEETS
dc.subjectIMPACT OF CLIMATE
dc.subjectIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINFORMATION ON CLIMATE
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectINSURANCE COMPANIES
dc.subjectINTANGIBLES
dc.subjectINTENSITY OF STORMS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINVESTING
dc.subjectINVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES
dc.subjectINVESTMENT DECISION
dc.subjectINVESTMENT DECISIONS
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectJOBS
dc.subjectLAKES
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectLAND USE PATTERNS
dc.subjectLOCAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectLONG-TERM INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectLOWER COSTS
dc.subjectLOWER DISCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectMANGROVE FOREST
dc.subjectMARGINAL ABATEMENT
dc.subjectMARGINAL ABATEMENT COST
dc.subjectMARKET PRICE
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectMARKET VALUE
dc.subjectMARKET VALUES
dc.subjectMONETARY VALUE
dc.subjectMONSOONS
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subjectOCEANS
dc.subjectOPPORTUNITY COST
dc.subjectPHYSICS
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPORTFOLIOS
dc.subjectPOWER PLANTS
dc.subjectPOWER STATIONS
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectPRESENT VALUE
dc.subjectPROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectPROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC TRANSPORT
dc.subjectPUBLIC TRANSPORT SUBSIDY
dc.subjectQUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
dc.subjectRAIN
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectRAINY DAYS
dc.subjectRAPID CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectREGIONAL CLIMATE
dc.subjectREGULATORY POLICIES
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICES
dc.subjectRENEWABLE ENERGY
dc.subjectRESOURCE ECONOMICS
dc.subjectRETURN
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectRISK AVERSION
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
dc.subjectRISK NEUTRAL
dc.subjectROAD
dc.subjectROAD TRAFFIC
dc.subjectROAD TUNNEL
dc.subjectROADS
dc.subjectROUTE
dc.subjectROUTES
dc.subjectSAFETY
dc.subjectSCENARIOS
dc.subjectSCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
dc.subjectSEA LEVEL RISE
dc.subjectSEISMIC EVENT
dc.subjectSENSITIVITY ANALYSES
dc.subjectSETTLEMENT
dc.subjectSHADOW PRICE
dc.subjectSILVER
dc.subjectSOCIAL COST OF CARBON
dc.subjectSTORM SURGE
dc.subjectSTORMS
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE CHANGE
dc.subjectTEMPERATURES
dc.subjectTERRORISM
dc.subjectTOTAL COST
dc.subjectTRADING
dc.subjectTRADING SYSTEM
dc.subjectTRAFFIC
dc.subjectTRAFFIC CONGESTION
dc.subjectTRAFFIC LANES
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectTRANSPORT
dc.subjectTRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectTRAVEL COSTS
dc.subjectTREASURY
dc.subjectTROPICS
dc.subjectTRUE
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTIES
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectURBAN PLANNERS
dc.subjectUTILITY FUNCTION
dc.subjectVALUATION
dc.subjectVALUATION TECHNIQUES
dc.subjectVALUATIONS
dc.subjectWORST-CASE
dc.titleAgreeing on Robust Decisions : New Processes for Decision Making under Deep Uncertaintyen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaClimate Change
okr.crossref.titleAgreeing on Robust Decisions: New Processes for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
okr.date.disclosure2014-06-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:23:06.982898Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19616379/agreeing-robust-decisions-new-processes-decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeTransport and ICT
okr.globalpracticeEnvironment and Natural Resources
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.guid365031468338971343
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6906
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20140604102709
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum19616379
okr.identifier.reportWPS6906
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/04/000158349_20140604102709/Rendered/PDF/WPS6906.pdfen
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Climate Change Economics
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicTransport Economics Policy and Planning
okr.topicScience and Technology Development::Science of Climate Change
okr.topicTransport
okr.unitOffice of the Chief Economist, Climate Change Group
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2fea2b63-4a74-5fbd-b964-71ef895df009
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery2fea2b63-4a74-5fbd-b964-71ef895df009
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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