Publication:
Trade and Civil Conflicts

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dc.contributor.authorAssem, Hoda
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-20T20:56:01Z
dc.date.available2023-06-20T20:56:01Z
dc.date.issued2023-06-20
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates the impact of civil conflicts on international trade. First, it quantifies how much civil conflicts suppress trade and explores the underlying mechanisms within a structural gravity model. Trade openness can lower the risk of civil conflicts because expected gains from international trade could discourage both governments and rebels from igniting conflicts (deterrence mechanism). Alternatively, international trade could act as a substitute for internal trade, lowering the opportunity cost of civil conflicts (insurance mechanism). This paper empirically investigates both mechanisms. Second, the paper investigates the spillovers of civil conflicts on trade for neighboring countries uninvolved in the conflict. Third, it examines if the impact of civil conflicts is contemporaneous or persistent through time. The paper uses data on violent civil conflicts and international and intra-national trade data from 142 countries to estimate a structural gravity trade model for 1989-2006. The results show that civil conflicts in a country can reduce its trade with other countries by over 40 percent. Spillovers of neighboring civil conflicts are also highly detrimental. Finally, the impact of civil conflicts is highly persistent through time and increases with the duration of the conflict.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099905205312330455/IDU0a32a89fd05022044600a8730ad25dcba77eb
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10465
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39904
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers; 10465
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectCIVIL CONFLICT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectSPILLOVERS OF CONFLICT
dc.subjectPOST CONFLICT ECONOMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectIMPACTS OF CIVIL CONFLICT
dc.subjectTRADE AND CONFLICT DATA
dc.titleTrade and Civil Conflictsen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleTrade and Civil Conflicts
okr.date.disclosure2023-05-31
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-07T08:51:20.305805Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-08T16:26:02.417005Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-09T03:01:27.400293Z
okr.date.lastmodified2023-06-14T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099905205312330455/IDU0a32a89fd05022044600a8730ad25dcba77eb
okr.guid099905205312330455
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-a32a89fd-5022-4460-a873-ad25dcba77eb
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10465
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10465
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34072730
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34072730
okr.identifier.reportWPS10465
okr.import.id861
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099905205312330455/pdf/IDU0a32a89fd05022044600a8730ad25dcba77eb.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.topicSocial Development::Post Conflict Reintegration
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Poverty and Trade
okr.topicConflict and Development::Post Conflict Reconstruction
okr.topicConflict and Development::Conflict and Fragile States
okr.unitOffice of the Chief Economist (MNACE)
relation.isAuthorOfPublication5c184a46-2362-4d36-9c80-88023b5a865c
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery5c184a46-2362-4d36-9c80-88023b5a865c
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