Publication: Fueling Africa's Flight: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Sustainable Aviation Fuels in Africa
Loading...
Date
2025-06-03
ISSN
Published
2025-06-03
Editor(s)
Abstract
This study explores the potential for producing sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in four African countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. Rather than serving as a full feasibility analysis or detailed project proposal, it uses a techno-economic approach to showcase Africa’s potential through examples from these countries. The analysis highlights strategies for cost reduction and risk management, with a focus on the higher selling prices of SAF in Africa, which are driven by elevated risk premiums and green premiums. By assessing feedstock availability, production technologies, and policy frameworks, the study provides actionable insights to accelerate SAF adoption in Africa. The aim is to bridge the cost gap with conventional fossil-based jet fuel, position Africa as an integral part of sustainable aviation value chain, and contribute significantly to reducing carbon emissions.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Abate, Megersa; Malina, Robert; Gonca, Seber; Schlumberger, E. Charles. 2025. Fueling Africa's Flight: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Sustainable Aviation Fuels in Africa. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43286 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Role of Sustainable Aviation Fuels in Decarbonizing Air Transport(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022)The air transport sector is an integral part of economic growth and development. As the only available means of transporting passengers and goods across the globe within a single day, air transport provides critical connectivity between regions and better access to global markets. The creation of these benefits, however, leads to detrimental impacts on the environment and public health, including the emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases (GHGs). This report emphasizes SAF as the main mitigation option that can most readily realize substantial GHG emission savings for air transport in the medium term (for example, the next 5 to 10 years). Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) is the term used by the aviation industry to describe a set of fuels that can be sustainably produced and generate lower CO2 emissions than conventional kerosene on a life-cycle basis. In the context of international regulation developed under the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), SAF is defined more precisely as a renewable or waste-derived aviation fuel that meets a set of Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) Sustainability Criteria, including a GHG emission reduction criterion. Finally, continued support for sustainable aviation-fuel research and development is needed. This should include the development of feedstock supply chains, new and innovative production technologies, and the development of innovative business models that increase the value of all products and by-products of SAF production operations. As the SAF production and distribution network becomes global, a deeper analysis is also needed to design the structure of biomass feedstock and refined fuel products transportation, whether distributed or centralized, in streamlined supply chains.Publication Household Cooking Fuel Choice and Adoption of Improved Cookstoves in Developing Countries : A Review(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-06)Improving access to affordable and reliable energy services for cooking is essential for developing countries in reducing adverse human health and environmental impacts hitherto caused by burning of traditional biomass. This paper reviews empirical studies that analyze choices of fuel and adoption of improved stoves for cooking in countries where biomass is still the predominant cooking fuel. The review highlights the wide range of factors that influence households cooking fuel choices and adoption of improved stoves, including socioeconomic (access and availability, collection costs and fuel prices, household income, education and awareness), behavioral (food tastes, lifestyle), and cultural and external factors (indoor air pollution, government policies). The paper also summarizes the evidence on the significant adverse health impacts from exposure to indoor smoke, especially among women and young children. In low-income households, perceived health benefits of adopting improved stoves and financial benefits from fuel savings tend to be outweighed by the costs of improved stoves, even after accounting for the opportunity cost of time spent collecting biomass fuel. The paper identifies knowledge and evidence gaps on the success of policies and programs designed to scale up the adoption of improved cookstoves.Publication Ready for Takeoff? The Potential for Low-Cost Carriers in Developing Countries(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-09-10)The emergence of low-cost carriers (LCCs) has been a key catalyst for the development of the aviation industry in the last decade. Indeed, extensive research has been undertaken to analyze the business model and impact on the aviation sector and beyond. Despite recent developments in the LCC markets in Asia and Latin America, much of the research has been focused on developed countries. Therefore, the purpose of this book is to identify the premises and prerequisites of the LCC model, and assess whether this business model could be successful in other less-developed countries, in particular the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. This book identifies various definitions that have been applied to describe the LCC business model. In essence the majority of researchers define LCCs as carriers which, through a variety of operational processes, have achieved a cost advantage over full-service carriers (FSCs). This cost advantage is, in most cases, translated to the consumers by a lower fare offering. Although many carriers are defined as LCCs, the LCC model has developed into many different variations since the original Southwest Airlines model, the first U.S. LCC, which began operations in the 1960s.Publication Africa Energy Poverty : G8 Energy Ministers Meeting 2009(Washington, DC, 2009-05-24)Worldwide, about 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity services. There are also large populations without access in the poorer countries of Asia and Latin America, as well as in the rural and peri-urban areas of middle income countries. However large-scale electrification programs that is currently underway in middle income countries and the poor countries of Asia will increase household electricity access more rapidly than in sub-Saharan Africa. Africa has the lowest electrification rate of all the regions at 26 percent of households, meaning that as many as 547 million people are without access to electricity. On current trends less than half of African countries will reach universal access to electricity even by 2050. Without access to electricity services, the poor are deprived of opportunities to improve their living standards and the delivery of health and education services is compromised when electricity is not available in clinics, in schools and in the households of students and teachers. The total financing needs for Africa to resolve the power supply crisis are of the order of approximately US$40 billion per annum or 6.4 percent of region's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In response to the power crisis, donors have increased their support to the power sector, though more is needed. From the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, donor assistance for the African power sector averaged no more than US$500 million per year. The private sector will be key to energy access expansion. For example, private sector expertise will be needed to develop the large complex generation and transmission projects (especially cross-border projects) that are necessary and for which a project finance approach will be often the most appropriate. The current global credit crisis poses additional challenges to mobilizing financing for energy infrastructure and especially for projects with perceived higher risk or higher costs. Nevertheless, governments can still access finance in the private markets for sound investments.Publication The Growth of Transport Sector CO2 Emissions and Underlying Factors in Latin America and the Caribbean(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-09)This study examines the factors responsible for the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide emissions in 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries during 1980-2005 by decomposing the emissions growth into components associated with changes in fuel mix, modal shift, and economic growth, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. The key finding of the study is that economic growth and the changes in transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector carbon dioxide emissions growth in the countries considered. The results imply that fiscal policy instruments - such as subsidies to clean fuels and clean vehicles - would be more effective in reducing emissions in countries where the economic activity effect is the primary driver for transport sector carbon dioxide emissions growth. By contrast, regulatory policy instruments - such as vehicle efficiency standards and vehicle occupancy standards - would be more effective in countries where the transportation energy intensity effect is the main driver of carbon dioxide emissions growth. Both fiscal and regulatory policy instruments would be useful in countries where both economic activity and transportation energy intensity effects are responsible for driving transport sector carbon dioxide emissions growth.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-01)Middle-income countries are in a race against time. Many of them have done well since the 1990s to escape low-income levels and eradicate extreme poverty, leading to the perception that the last three decades have been great for development. But the ambition of the more than 100 economies with incomes per capita between US$1,100 and US$14,000 is to reach high-income status within the next generation. When assessed against this goal, their record is discouraging. Since the 1970s, income per capita in the median middle-income country has stagnated at less than a tenth of the US level. With aging populations, growing protectionism, and escalating pressures to speed up the energy transition, today’s middle-income economies face ever more daunting odds. To become advanced economies despite the growing headwinds, they will have to make miracles. Drawing on the development experience and advances in economic analysis since the 1950s, World Development Report 2024 identifies pathways for developing economies to avoid the “middle-income trap.” It points to the need for not one but two transitions for those at the middle-income level: the first from investment to infusion and the second from infusion to innovation. Governments in lower-middle-income countries must drop the habit of repeating the same investment-driven strategies and work instead to infuse modern technologies and successful business processes from around the world into their economies. This requires reshaping large swaths of those economies into globally competitive suppliers of goods and services. Upper-middle-income countries that have mastered infusion can accelerate the shift to innovation—not just borrowing ideas from the global frontiers of technology but also beginning to push the frontiers outward. This requires restructuring enterprise, work, and energy use once again, with an even greater emphasis on economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability. Neither transition is automatic. The handful of economies that made speedy transitions from middle- to high-income status have encouraged enterprise by disciplining powerful incumbents, developed talent by rewarding merit, and capitalized on crises to alter policies and institutions that no longer suit the purposes they were once designed to serve. Today’s middle-income countries will have to do the same.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication World Bank Annual Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25)This annual report, which covers the period from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024, has been prepared by the Executive Directors of both the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA)—collectively known as the World Bank—in accordance with the respective bylaws of the two institutions. Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors, has submitted this report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.