Publication:
Moldova Trade Study: Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2016-04-11T19:42:18Z
dc.date.available2016-04-11T19:42:18Z
dc.date.issued2016-01-30
dc.description.abstractMoldova’s recent Association Agreement with the European Union (EU), which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), represents an important opportunity, as well as challenges. This analytical document has been commissioned by the World Bank Group to provide insights into potential outcomes of the DCFTA and of other trade options that Moldova has, using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model calibrated to its economy. This paper begins by describing the general trends in economic relations between Moldova and the EU over the past 10 years, with an emphasis on trade, as well as Foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor migration. This section includes some additional facts and details that complement the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic. In the second section, the paper presents the main elements of the DCFTA and highlights the trade commitments and concessions that the EU and Moldova undertook. It also includes a short review of available literature on the ex-ante or ex post impact assessments of other Association Agreements between the EU and third countries that have been done using CGE models. The third section presents key features of the DCGE and discusses the data used for assembling the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Then, the main features of the simulated trade scenarios are presented. Finally, this paper discusses the DCGE simulation results, including the effects of the various scenarios on welfare, trade, and economic activity level. Some distributional impacts are also brought into discussion. The final section concludes and makes several recommendations.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26075964/dcfta-good-moldova-analysis-moldova’s-trade-options-using-dynamic-computable-general-equilibrium-model
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/24043
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/24043
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectTARIFFS
dc.subjectREGULATORY FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectCUSTOMS ADMINISTRATION
dc.subjectCUSTOMS UNION
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKETS
dc.subjectCURRENCY APPRECIATION
dc.subjectMULTILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectPROFIT MARGINS
dc.subjectEXPORT CAPACITY
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTORS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectBARRIERS ON IMPORTS
dc.subjectEXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectTRADE BARRIERS
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectPROPERTY RIGHTS
dc.subjectPROTECTIONIST
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKET
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectNATIONAL TREATMENT
dc.subjectSTATISTICAL DATA
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectTRADE AREAS
dc.subjectEXPORT PRICES
dc.subjectECONOMIC RELATIONS
dc.subjectWELFARE
dc.subjectTARIFF CONCESSIONS
dc.subjectSPECIAL INCENTIVES
dc.subjectOPTIMIZATION
dc.subjectGROSS VALUE
dc.subjectINCENTIVES
dc.subjectFREE IMPORTS
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINPUTS
dc.subjectPAYMENTS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectTECHNICAL REGULATIONS
dc.subjectTRENDS
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL ACCESS
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectCUSTOMS PROCEDURES
dc.subjectCUSTOMS DUTIES
dc.subjectTRADE IN GOODS
dc.subjectINFLUENCE
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectFOREIGN TRADE
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectIMPORT PRICES
dc.subjectCOSTS
dc.subjectTRADE RESTRICTIONS
dc.subjectTELECOMMUNICATIONS
dc.subjectRENT
dc.subjectCUSTOMS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectFREE ACCESS
dc.subjectMONOPOLY
dc.subjectIMPERFECT COMPETITION
dc.subjectQUOTAS
dc.subjectCRITERIA
dc.subjectEXPORT VOLUME
dc.subjectMARKETS
dc.subjectWTO
dc.subjectTARIFF REDUCTIONS
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectAVERAGE PRODUCTION COSTS
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
dc.subjectUTILITY
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectCUSTOMS ENFORCEMENT
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectTRADE COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKET
dc.subjectPRODUCTION INPUTS
dc.subjectTAXES
dc.subjectPROTECTIONIST MEASURES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL STANDARDS
dc.subjectTRADE VOLUME
dc.subjectEXPORT FACILITATION
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectTRADE IN SERVICES
dc.subjectGROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectTRAVEL
dc.subjectCAPITAL
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectTRADE PREFERENCES
dc.subjectDEFLATORS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectEXPORT COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectTRADE ARRANGEMENTS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTIONS
dc.subjectTRADE DEFICIT
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectECONOMIC SECTORS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES
dc.subjectEXPORT PRODUCTS
dc.subjectDEMAND
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectDOMESTIC SALES
dc.subjectEXPECTED VALUE
dc.subjectECONOMY
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectTRADE AREA
dc.subjectTRADE FACILITATION
dc.subjectTRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TREATMENT
dc.subjectSKILLED LABOR
dc.subjectTRADE DIVERSION
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectECONOMIC INTEGRATION
dc.subjectMUTUAL RECOGNITION
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectEXPORT PRICE
dc.subjectGOODS
dc.subjectECONOMIES OF SCALE
dc.subjectGENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectBILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectMARGINAL REVENUE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectSUPERMARKETS
dc.subjectHOTELS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRODUCTION
dc.subjectCUSTOMS UNIONS
dc.subjectTARIFF
dc.subjectTRADE RELATIONS
dc.subjectTRADE SANCTIONS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AREA
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectTARIFF CONCESSION
dc.subjectMOST FAVORED NATION
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TARIFF
dc.subjectPRICE INDEXES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectOUTCOMES
dc.subjectIMPORT DUTIES
dc.subjectIMPORT DUTY
dc.subjectTRADE REGIME
dc.subjectCUSTOMS DECLARATIONS
dc.subjectOUTSOURCING
dc.subjectUNSKILLED LABOR
dc.subjectTARIFF TREATMENT
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectPRODUCTION COSTS
dc.subjectBENEFITS
dc.subjectADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.titleMoldova Trade Studyen
dc.title.subtitleNote 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Modelen
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleMoldova Trade Study
okr.date.disclosure2016-03-15
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26075964/dcfta-good-moldova-analysis-moldova’s-trade-options-using-dynamic-computable-general-equilibrium-model
okr.guid281771467991921364
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/24043
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b084310372_3_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum26075964
okr.identifier.report103996
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2016/03/16/090224b08420476e/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Is0the0DCFTA0g0l0equilibrium0model.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryMoldova
okr.sectorIndustry and trade
okr.themeTrade and integration :: Regional integration
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade and Regional Integration
okr.topicIndustry::Food & Beverage Industry
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.unitT&C GP-Europe East - IBRD (GTC10)
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