Publication:
Are International Food Price Spikes the Source of Egypt's High Inflation?

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorAl-Shawarby, Sherine
dc.contributor.authorSelim, Hoda
dc.date.accessioned2012-12-21T20:57:17Z
dc.date.available2012-12-21T20:57:17Z
dc.date.issued2012-08
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines whether domestic inflation spikes in Egypt during 2001-2011 were primarily the result of external food price shocks. To estimate the pass-through of international food price inflation to domestic price inflation, two different methodologies are used: a two-step regression model estimates the pass-through in the long run, and a vector autoregression model provides the short-run estimates. The empirical evidence confirms that pass-through is high in the short term, but not in the long run. More precisely, the results show that (i) long-run pass-through to domestic food inflation is relatively low, lying between 13 and 16 percent, while the long-term spill-over from domestic food inflation to core inflation is moderate, lying around 60 percent; (ii) in the short term, pass-through is relatively high, estimated around 29 percent after 6 months and around two-thirds after a year, but the spill-over effect to core inflation is limited; (iii) international food price shocks explain only a small portion of domestic inflation shocks in both the short and long terms; and (iv) international price inflation has asymmetric effects on domestic prices.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/08/16620776/international-food-price-spikes-source-egypts-high-inflation
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6177
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/12021
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;6177
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectADMINISTERED PRICES
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectBEHAVIOR OF PRICES
dc.subjectBUDGET DEFICIT
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITALIST ECONOMIES
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANKS
dc.subjectCEREALS
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICES
dc.subjectCONSUMER PROTECTION
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION BASKET
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectCORE INFLATION
dc.subjectCYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectDEFLATION
dc.subjectDEPOSITS
dc.subjectDEPRECIATION
dc.subjectDETERMINANTS OF INFLATION
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC INFLATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE INFLATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE LEVEL
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subjectDUMMY VARIABLE
dc.subjectDUMMY VARIABLES
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectEFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIES
dc.subjectENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE ANCHOR
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE PEG
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS VARIABLE
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCK
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE BANK
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE INFLATION
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD SUPPLY
dc.subjectFOREIGN ASSETS
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN PRICE LEVEL
dc.subjectFRUITS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHIGH INFLATION
dc.subjectIMPORT
dc.subjectIMPORT PRICES
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME TAX
dc.subjectINFLATION DYNAMICS
dc.subjectINFLATION EXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectINFLATION MEASURE
dc.subjectINFLATION MEASURES
dc.subjectINFLATION MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectINFLATION TARGETING
dc.subjectINFLATIONARY PRESSURES
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL INFLATION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL PRICE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL PRICES
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
dc.subjectMONETARY AUTHORITIES
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORKS
dc.subjectNOMINAL ANCHOR
dc.subjectNOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectOUTPUT GAP
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE ADJUSTMENT
dc.subjectPRICE ADJUSTMENTS
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectPRICE INDEX
dc.subjectPRICE INDICES
dc.subjectPRICE LEVEL
dc.subjectPRICE RIGIDITY
dc.subjectPRICE STABILITY
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRICING STRATEGIES
dc.subjectPRODUCER PRICE
dc.subjectPRODUCER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL EXPORTS
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectREJECTION
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICE
dc.subjectRETAIL
dc.subjectRETAILING
dc.subjectROBUSTNESS CHECKS
dc.subjectSHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectSTANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectSTEEL
dc.subjectSUPPLY SHOCKS
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectTRACK RECORD
dc.subjectVARIANCE-COVARIANCE MATRIX
dc.subjectVEGETABLES
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectWEIGHTS
dc.subjectWFP
dc.subjectWHEAT
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMY
dc.titleAre International Food Price Spikes the Source of Egypt's High Inflation?en
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaJobs
okr.crossref.titleAre International Food Price Spikes the Source of Egypt's High Inflation?
okr.date.disclosure2012-08-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T10:02:09.860793Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/08/16620776/international-food-price-spikes-source-egypts-high-inflation
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid545831468234313522
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6177
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20120820133956
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum16620776
okr.identifier.reportWPS6177
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/08/20/000158349_20120820133956/Rendered/PDF/wps6177.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.countryEgypt, Arab Republic of
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Access to Markets
okr.topicFood and Beverage Industry
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Markets and Market Access
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Currencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Emerging Markets
okr.topicIndustry
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Thumbnail Image
Name:
wps6177.pdf
Size:
813.14 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
wps6177.txt
Size:
67.29 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Policy Research Working Papers