Publication:
Potential Growth: A Global Database

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dc.contributor.authorKilic Celik, Sinem
dc.contributor.authorKose, M. Ayhan
dc.contributor.authorOhnsorge, F.
dc.contributor.authorRuch, F. Ulrich
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-15T18:40:30Z
dc.date.available2023-03-15T18:40:30Z
dc.date.issued2023-03
dc.description.abstractPotential growth—the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment—is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive database to date, covering the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for up to 173 countries over 1981–2021. Based on this database, the paper presents three findings. First, all measures of global potential growth show a steady and widespread decline over the past decade, with all the fundamental drivers of growth losing momentum over time. In 2011–21, potential growth was below its 2000–10 average in nearly all advanced economies and roughly 60 percent of emerging market and developing economies. Second, adverse events, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the decline. At the country-level also, national recessions lowered potential growth even five years after their onset. Third, the persistent impact of recessions on potential growth operated through weaker growth of investment, employment, and productivity.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099426303102336406/IDU0f9f2613e0a18e0486c0a2710e80b2c21a128
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10354
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39539
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers; 10354
dc.rightsCC BY-NC 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectGROWTH EXPECTATIONS IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectFISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMEASURES OF POTENTIAL GROWTH
dc.subjectGLOBAL GROWTH DATABASE
dc.subjectDECLINING GROWTH POTENTIAL
dc.titlePotential Growthen
dc.title.subtitleA Global Databaseen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titlePotential Growth: A Global Database
okr.date.disclosure2023-03-10
okr.date.lastmodified2023-03-10T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099426303102336406/IDU0f9f2613e0a18e0486c0a2710e80b2c21a128
okr.guid099426303102336406
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10354
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34019195
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34019195
okr.identifier.reportWPS10354
okr.import.id97
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099426303102336406/pdf/IDU0f9f2613e0a18e0486c0a2710e80b2c21a128.pdfen
okr.region.geographicalWorld
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.unitProspects Group (DECPG)
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