Publication:
How Much Does Reducing Inequality Matter for Global Poverty?

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dc.contributor.authorNegre, Mario
dc.contributor.authorLakner, Christoph
dc.contributor.authorPrydz, Espen Beer
dc.contributor.authorMahler, Daniel Gerszon
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-12T16:14:23Z
dc.date.available2020-06-12T16:14:23Z
dc.date.issued2020-06-01
dc.description.abstractThe goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and working towards a more equal distribution of incomes are part of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. Using data from 166 countries comprising 97.5 percent of the world's population, we simulate scenarios for global poverty from 2019 to 2030 under various assumptions about growth and inequality. We use different assumptions about growth incidence curves to model changes in inequality, and rely on a machine-learning algorithm called model-based recursive partitioning to model how growth in GDP is passed through to growth as observed in household surveys. When holding within-country inequality unchanged and letting GDP per capita grow according to World Bank forecasts and historically observed growth rates, our simulations suggest that the number of extreme poor (living on less than 1.90 US Dollars/day) will remain above 600 million in 2030, resulting in a global extreme poverty rate of 7.4 percent. If the Gini index in each country decreases by 1 percent per year, the global poverty rate could reduce to around 6.3 percent in 2030, equivalent to 89 million fewer people living in extreme poverty. Reducing each country's Gini index by 1 percent per year has a larger impact on global poverty than increasing each country's annual growth 1 percentage points above forecasts. We also study the impact of COVID-19 on poverty and find that the pandemic may have driven around 60 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. If the virus increased the Gini by 2 pecent in all countries, then more than 90 million may have been driven into extreme poverty in 2020.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/765601591733806023/How-Much-Does-Reducing-Inequality-Matter-for-Global-Poverty
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/33902
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/33902
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesGlobal Poverty Monitoring Technical Note;
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectGLOBAL POVERTY
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCLUSIVE GROWTH
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
dc.subjectSDGs
dc.subjectFORECASTING
dc.subjectMACHINE LEARNING
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectPANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.titleHow Much Does Reducing Inequality Matter for Global Poverty?en
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleHow Much Does Reducing Inequality Matter for Global Poverty?
okr.date.disclosure2020-06-09
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/765601591733806023/How-Much-Does-Reducing-Inequality-Matter-for-Global-Poverty
okr.guid765601591733806023
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/33902
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b087a1b272_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum32112430
okr.identifier.report149386
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/765601591733806023/pdf/How-Much-Does-Reducing-Inequality-Matter-for-Global-Poverty.pdfen
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Assessment
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Lines
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Monitoring & Analysis
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty and Health
okr.unitDECRG: Poverty & Inequality (DECPI); Poverty and Equity Global Practice
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationfe09a17f-1d05-5a36-808c-daa18418e7bb
relation.isAuthorOfPublication3360909a-fdcc-580a-9567-25d105453578
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryfe09a17f-1d05-5a36-808c-daa18418e7bb
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