Publication:
Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in Brazil

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dc.contributor.authorJorgensen, Ole Hagen
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-19T17:59:39Z
dc.date.available2012-03-19T17:59:39Z
dc.date.issued2011-01-01
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of population aging in Brazil. Three alternative yet complementary methodologies are adopted, and depending on policy responses to the fiscal implications of aging, there are two main findings: First, saving rates could increase and not necessarily fall as a consequence of aging in Brazil -- thus contradicting conventional views. Second, lifetime wealth across generations could increase -- as capital deepening generates a second demographic dividend. Two policy responses to aging are emphasized: First, a structural policy response of linking mandatory retirement (or entitlement) ages to increasing life expectancy would boost labor supply and reduce the fiscal costs of aging. Second, in terms of preferable parametric policy responses, the second demographic dividend will be promoted to the highest extent by keeping taxes and debt unchanged while allowing public pensions to adjust downward. Such a policy response would keep pensions from further crowding out private saving -- thus balancing capital accumulation with intergenerational income distribution. In conclusion, Brazil will not necessarily experience a fall in saving and growth, but if government policies are appropriately, adequately, and timely formulated, population aging is likely to lead to substantial capital deepening and increases in lifetime income, wealth, and welfare.en
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110103132308
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5519
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/3292
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5519
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectAGE MORTALITY
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEBT
dc.subjectAGING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectALTERNATIVE FINANCING
dc.subjectAMORTIZATION
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectBEQUEST
dc.subjectBEQUESTS
dc.subjectBORROWING
dc.subjectBUDGET CONSTRAINT
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKET
dc.subjectCAPITAL SAVINGS
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectCHILD MORTALITY
dc.subjectCHILD SURVIVAL
dc.subjectCLOSED ECONOMY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCREDIT FLOWS
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEBT BURDEN
dc.subjectDEBT FINANCING
dc.subjectDEBT RATIO
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICE
dc.subjectDECLINE IN FERTILITY
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
dc.subjectDEPENDENCY RATIO
dc.subjectDEPENDENCY RATIOS
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
dc.subjectDIVIDEND
dc.subjectDIVIDENDS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC BORROWING
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEBT
dc.subjectEARNINGS
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC AGENTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC MODELS
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTCOMES
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectEDUCATION SYSTEMS
dc.subjectEFFECTS OF POPULATION
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectELDERLY
dc.subjectELDERLY PEOPLE
dc.subjectEMPLOYERS
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectEXCLUSION
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFACTORS OF PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFAMILIES
dc.subjectFERTILITY
dc.subjectFERTILITY RATES
dc.subjectFEWER PEOPLE
dc.subjectFINANCES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL BURDEN
dc.subjectFINANCIAL DEPTH
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFISCAL BURDEN
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFUTURE GENERATIONS
dc.subjectFUTURE RESEARCH
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BONDS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BUDGET
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT FINANCES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT FINANCING
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT POLICIES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT POLICY
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH THEORY
dc.subjectHEALTH CARE
dc.subjectHEALTH SYSTEM
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD LEVEL
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SAVING
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SAVING RATE
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SAVING RATES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectIMMIGRATION
dc.subjectIMPROVEMENTS IN CHILD SURVIVAL
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME GROUP
dc.subjectINCOME GROUPS
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINDEXATION
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectINFORMAL CREDIT
dc.subjectINTEREST PAYMENTS
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINVESTMENT RATE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
dc.subjectLABOR SUPPLY
dc.subjectLIFE EXPECTANCY
dc.subjectLONGER LIFE
dc.subjectLOWER FERTILITY
dc.subjectM2
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
dc.subjectMARGINAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectMARKET STRUCTURES
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMULTIPLIERS
dc.subjectNORMAL GOOD
dc.subjectNUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectNUMBER OF WORKERS
dc.subjectOLD AGE
dc.subjectOLD-AGE
dc.subjectOLDER AGE GROUPS
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMY
dc.subjectOPTIMIZATION
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectOUTPUT RATIO
dc.subjectPARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSES
dc.subjectPARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
dc.subjectPENSION
dc.subjectPENSION ASSETS
dc.subjectPENSION CONTRIBUTION
dc.subjectPENSION CONTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectPENSION REFORM
dc.subjectPENSION SYSTEM
dc.subjectPENSION SYSTEMS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPERFECT COMPETITION
dc.subjectPHYSICAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectPOLICY DISCUSSIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSE
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSES
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOLITICAL STABILITY
dc.subjectPOPULATION AGE STRUCTURE
dc.subjectPOPULATION CHANGES
dc.subjectPOPULATION DIVISION
dc.subjectPOPULATION DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectPOPULATION PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectPOPULATION STRUCTURE
dc.subjectPOSITIVE EFFECTS
dc.subjectPRIVATE CREDIT
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPRIVATE PENSION
dc.subjectPRIVATE PENSIONS
dc.subjectPRIVATE SAVING
dc.subjectPRIVATE SAVINGS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPROGRESS
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subjectPUBLIC PENSION
dc.subjectPUBLIC PENSIONS
dc.subjectPUBLIC SAVING
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR DEBT
dc.subjectRATE OF RETURN
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectRECEIPTS
dc.subjectRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION
dc.subjectREPLACEMENT RATE
dc.subjectREPLACEMENT RATES
dc.subjectRESPECT
dc.subjectRETIREMENT AGE
dc.subjectRETIREMENT AGES
dc.subjectRISK OF DEFAULT
dc.subjectRISK PREMIUM
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSAVINGS MECHANISM
dc.subjectSAVINGS MOTIVE
dc.subjectSAVINGS RATE
dc.subjectSAVINGS RATIO
dc.subjectSECURITY ARRANGEMENTS
dc.subjectSHARE OF CAPITAL
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECURITY
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSURVIVAL RATE
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX RATE
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectTRANSITION COUNTRIES
dc.subjectTRANSITION ECONOMIES
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectURBANIZATION
dc.subjectWAGE RATES
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.titleMacroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in Brazilen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleMacroeconomic and policy implications of population aging in Brazil
okr.date.disclosure2011-01-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:35:17.369519Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110103132308
okr.globalpracticeHealth, Nutrition, and Population
okr.guid285911468228269971
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5519
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20110103132308
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum13310888
okr.identifier.reportWPS5519
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/01/03/000158349_20110103132308/Rendered/PDF/WPS5519.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.countryBrazil
okr.region.geographicalSouth America
okr.region.geographicalAmerica
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Population Policies
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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