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Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Firm Performance in Central Asia: The Role of Export Links and Digital Gains

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dc.contributor.authorDalvit, Nicolo
dc.contributor.authorIootty, Mariana
dc.contributor.authorSrinivasan, Nithya
dc.contributor.authorMelecky, Martin
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-30T19:57:05Z
dc.date.available2023-08-30T19:57:05Z
dc.date.issued2023-08-30
dc.description.abstractThis paper studies the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the performance of firms in Central Asia. It uses unique data from the Business Pulse Survey run by the World Bank in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, which tracks the sales and employment—along with other main characteristics—of about 1,200 to 1,800 firms in a panel structure. The survey contains two waves before and one wave after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Using the difference-in-differences methodology in a regression setup, the analysis finds that Central Asian firms with pre-invasion trade links to Russia suffered greater drops in sales and employment after the invasion—even though exporters to Russia may have experienced, on average, higher sales during the studied period. Considering the pre-invasion digitization of firms, the findings show that digitization helped firms increase their average employment during the studied period. However, the analysis does not find any significant mitigating effect of digitalization associated with the impact of the invasion.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099815408282337165/IDU036b901aa03b7104b550ad2c07c51ef816334
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10557
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40301
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 10557
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectUKRAINE INVASION
dc.subjectFIRM PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectSALES
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectCENTRAL ASIA
dc.subjectTRADE LINK WITH RUSSIA
dc.subjectBUSINESS PULSE SURVEY
dc.subjectDIFFERENCE IN DIFFERENCES
dc.titleRussia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Firm Performance in Central Asiaen
dc.title.subtitleThe Role of Export Links and Digital Gainsen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleRussia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Firm Performance in Central Asia: The Role of Export Links and Digital Gains
okr.date.disclosure2023-08-28
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-07T08:16:59.149984Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-08T16:07:41.690787Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-09T02:50:41.829098Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-30T04:31:25.479576Z
okr.date.lastmodified2023-08-28T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099815408282337165/IDU036b901aa03b7104b550ad2c07c51ef816334
okr.guid099815408282337165
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-36b901aa-3b71-4b55-ad2c-7c51ef816334
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10557
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10557
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34151756
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34151756
okr.identifier.reportWPS10557
okr.import.id1656
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099815408282337165/pdf/IDU036b901aa03b7104b550ad2c07c51ef816334.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryUkraine
okr.region.countryRussian Federation
okr.region.geographicalCentral Asia
okr.sectorPublic Administration - Financial Sector
okr.themeFinancial Sector oversight and policy/banking regulation & restructuring,Mitigation,Infrastructure Finance,Human Development and Gender,Financial Stability,ICT,Economic Policy,ICT Solutions,Fiscal Policy,Environment and Natural Resource Management,Disease Control,Finance for Development,Finance,Enterprise Development,Private Sector Development,Pandemic Response,MSME Development,Fiscal sustainability,Climate change,Adaptation,Disaster Risk Finance,Financial Sector Integrity
okr.topicConflict and Development::Armed Conflict
okr.topicInformation and Communication Technologies::Digital Divide
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Private Sector Economics
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Access to Markets
okr.unitEFI-ECA-FCI-Finance-1 (EECF1)
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