Publication:
Hidden Debt Revelations

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorHorn, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorMihalyi, David
dc.contributor.authorNickol, Philipp
dc.contributor.authorSosa-Padilla, César
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-18T20:58:37Z
dc.date.available2024-09-18T20:58:37Z
dc.date.issued2024-09-18
dc.description.abstractHow reliable are public debt statistics This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics, and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex post data revisions across a comprehensive new database of more than 50 vintages of World Bank debt statistics. In a sample of debt data covering 146 countries and 53 years, the paper establishes three new stylized facts: (i) debt statistics are systematically under-reported; (ii) hidden debt accumulates in boom years and tends to be revealed in bad times, often during IMF programs and sovereign defaults; and (iii) in debt restructurings, higher hidden debt is associated with larger creditor losses. The novel data is used to numerically discipline a quantitative sovereign debt model with hidden debt accumulation and an endogenous monitoring decision that triggers revelations. Model simulations show that hidden debt has adverse effects on default risk, debt-carrying capacity and asset prices and is therefore welfare detrimental.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099436209162426807/IDU11e8447b910f541496b18a3018630cb1554dc
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10907
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/42162
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 10907
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectHIDDEN DEBT
dc.subjectSOVEREIGN DEBT
dc.subjectDEFAULT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL LENDING AND DEBT PROBLEMS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISES
dc.titleHidden Debt Revelationsen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleHidden Debt Revelations
okr.date.disclosure2024-09-18
okr.date.lastmodified2024-09-16T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099436209162426807/IDU11e8447b910f541496b18a3018630cb1554dc
okr.guid099436209162426807
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-1e8447b9-0f54-496b-8a30-8630cb1554dc
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10907
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10907
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34391658
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34391658
okr.identifier.reportWPS10907
okr.import.id5298
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099436209162426807/pdf/IDU11e8447b910f541496b18a3018630cb1554dc.pdfen
okr.region.geographicalWorld
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Strategic Debt Management
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.unitProsperity-Econ Pol-Gbl Mac&Debt (EMFMD)
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Thumbnail Image
Name:
IDU11e8447b910f541496b18a3018630cb1554dc.pdf
Size:
1.95 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
IDU11e8447b910f541496b18a3018630cb1554dc.txt
Size:
267.54 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Policy Research Working Papers