Publication: Vulnerability to Oil Price Increases : A Decomposition Analysis of 161 Countries
Date
2008-08
ISSN
Published
2008-08
Author(s)
Bacon, Robert
Kojima, Masami
Abstract
This paper examines the levels of and
changes in vulnerability to oil price increases between 1996
and 2006 in 161 countries for which data are available.
Vulnerability defined here as the ratio of the value of net
oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP) rises if oil
consumption increases and oil production decreases per unit
of GDP. By comparing the level of vulnerability of different
economies at a point in time, those that are particularly
vulnerable to oil price increases can be highlighted. This
enables consideration of the factors (variables) that help
determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Over time
economies change in ways that may make them more vulnerable
to oil price increases or less so, and the change in
vulnerability will be related to changes in the underlying
variables. The analysis this paper uses is a starting point
for linking these factors. The study also examined changes
in vulnerability by subdividing the period under review into
two sub-periods, 1996-2001 and 2001-6. The oil price
increase during the first sub-period was small, and
correspondingly the change in vulnerability was also
limited. The change in vulnerability was greater during the
second sub-period, which saw a 2.5-fold price increase in
nominal U.S. dollars. This paper highlights the role of
changes in the oil share of energy and of energy intensity,
both of which can be influenced by government policies, and
also by oil production, which, even though it is largely a
function of geology, can also be affected by a
country's upstream fiscal, contractual, and regulatory frameworks.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami. 2008. Vulnerability to Oil Price Increases : A Decomposition Analysis of 161 Countries. Extractive industries and development series;no. 1. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18402 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”