Publication:
Volatility and Growth

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dc.contributor.authorHnatkovska, Viktoria
dc.contributor.authorLoayza, Norman
dc.date.accessioned2013-06-11T22:06:15Z
dc.date.available2013-06-11T22:06:15Z
dc.date.issued2003-08
dc.description.abstractThe authors study the empirical, cross-country relationship between macroeconomic volatility and long-run economic growth. They address four central questions: 1) Does the volatility-growth link depend on country and policy characteristics, such as the level of development or trade openness? 2) Does this link reflect a statistically and economically significant causal effect from volatility to growth? 3) Has this relationship been stable over time and has it become stronger in recent decades? 4) Does the volatility-growth connection actually reveal the impact of crises rather than the overall effect of cyclical fluctuations? The authors find that macroeconomic volatility, and long-run economic growth are indeed negatively related. This negative link is exacerbated in countries that are poor, institutionally underdeveloped, undergoing intermediate stages of financial development, or unable to conduct counter-cyclical fiscal policies. They find evidence that this negative relationship actually reflects the harmful effect from volatility to growth. Furthermore, the authors find that the negative effect of volatility on growth has become considerably larger in the past two decades, and that it is mostly due to large recessions rather than normal cyclical fluctuations.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/01/2877484/volatility-growth
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-3184
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/13853
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 3184
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectAVERAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectAVERAGE GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectAVERAGE INCOME
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENT
dc.subjectCAUSAL EFFECT
dc.subjectCAUSAL IMPACT
dc.subjectCOUNTRY AVERAGES
dc.subjectCOUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY DATA
dc.subjectDEPENDENT VARIABLE
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISES
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIES IN TRANSITION
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL GROWTH LITERATURE
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL LITERATURE
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL MODELS
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL REGULARITIES
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL RESULTS
dc.subjectERROR TERM
dc.subjectESTIMATION RESULTS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT
dc.subjectEXPLANATORY VARIABLES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL DEPTH
dc.subjectFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SYSTEMS
dc.subjectFISCAL CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectGROWTH DETERMINANTS
dc.subjectGROWTH EFFECT
dc.subjectGROWTH LITERATURE
dc.subjectGROWTH PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectGROWTH PROCESS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectGROWTH REGRESSION
dc.subjectGROWTH REGRESSIONS
dc.subjectHIGH INCOME
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSES
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectLONG-RUN GROWTH
dc.subjectLONG-RUN IMPACT
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION
dc.subjectMEAN GROWTH
dc.subjectNEGATIVE EFFECT
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subject0 HYPOTHESIS
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectOUTPUT GAP
dc.subjectOUTPUT VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPOOR COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectRECESSIONS
dc.subjectRICH COUNTRIES
dc.subjectRULE OF LAW
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT EFFECT
dc.subjectSTABILIZATION POLICIES
dc.subjectSTANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectSTANDARD GROWTH DETERMINANTS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS
dc.subjectSYSTEMIC BANKING CRISES
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectTRADE OPENNESS
dc.subjectTRADE SHOCKS
dc.subjectTRANSITIONAL CONVERGENCE
dc.titleVolatility and Growthen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleVolatility and Growth
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:14:48.358793Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/01/2877484/volatility-growth
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.globalpracticeGovernance
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.guid154121468765320854
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-3184
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000012009_20040203142259
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum2877484
okr.identifier.reportWPS3184
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2004/02/03/000012009_20040203142259/Rendered/PDF/WPS3184.pdfen
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Markets and Market Access
okr.topicFinancial Crisis Management and Restructuring
okr.topicGovernance::Governance Indicators
okr.topicFiscal and Monetary Policy
okr.unitOff of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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