Publication:
Volatility and Growth

dc.contributor.author Hnatkovska, Viktoria
dc.contributor.author Loayza, Norman
dc.date.accessioned 2013-06-11T22:06:15Z
dc.date.available 2013-06-11T22:06:15Z
dc.date.issued 2003-08
dc.description.abstract The authors study the empirical, cross-country relationship between macroeconomic volatility and long-run economic growth. They address four central questions: 1) Does the volatility-growth link depend on country and policy characteristics, such as the level of development or trade openness? 2) Does this link reflect a statistically and economically significant causal effect from volatility to growth? 3) Has this relationship been stable over time and has it become stronger in recent decades? 4) Does the volatility-growth connection actually reveal the impact of crises rather than the overall effect of cyclical fluctuations? The authors find that macroeconomic volatility, and long-run economic growth are indeed negatively related. This negative link is exacerbated in countries that are poor, institutionally underdeveloped, undergoing intermediate stages of financial development, or unable to conduct counter-cyclical fiscal policies. They find evidence that this negative relationship actually reflects the harmful effect from volatility to growth. Furthermore, the authors find that the negative effect of volatility on growth has become considerably larger in the past two decades, and that it is mostly due to large recessions rather than normal cyclical fluctuations. en
dc.identifier http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/01/2877484/volatility-growth
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13853
dc.language English
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3184
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder World Bank
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject ACCOUNTING
dc.subject AVERAGE GROWTH
dc.subject AVERAGE GROWTH RATE
dc.subject AVERAGE INCOME
dc.subject BUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subject BUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subject CAPITAL INVESTMENT
dc.subject CAUSAL EFFECT
dc.subject CAUSAL IMPACT
dc.subject COUNTRY AVERAGES
dc.subject COUNTRY CHARACTERISTICS
dc.subject COUNTRY DATA
dc.subject DEPENDENT VARIABLE
dc.subject DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subject DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject DEVELOPMENT COUNTRIES
dc.subject DOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subject ECONOMIC CRISES
dc.subject ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION
dc.subject EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
dc.subject EMPIRICAL GROWTH LITERATURE
dc.subject EMPIRICAL LITERATURE
dc.subject EMPIRICAL MODELS
dc.subject EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES
dc.subject EMPIRICAL RESULTS
dc.subject ERROR TERM
dc.subject ESTIMATION RESULTS
dc.subject EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT
dc.subject EXPLANATORY VARIABLES
dc.subject FINANCIAL DEPTH
dc.subject FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subject FINANCIAL SYSTEMS
dc.subject FISCAL CONSTRAINTS
dc.subject FISCAL POLICIES
dc.subject FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject GROWTH DETERMINANTS
dc.subject GROWTH EFFECT
dc.subject GROWTH LITERATURE
dc.subject GROWTH PERFORMANCE
dc.subject GROWTH PROCESS
dc.subject GROWTH RATE
dc.subject GROWTH RATES
dc.subject GROWTH REGRESSION
dc.subject GROWTH REGRESSIONS
dc.subject HIGH INCOME
dc.subject HUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subject INCOME LEVELS
dc.subject INFLATION
dc.subject INFLATION RATE
dc.subject INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSES
dc.subject INSURANCE
dc.subject INTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subject LONG-RUN GROWTH
dc.subject LONG-RUN IMPACT
dc.subject LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subject MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY
dc.subject MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subject MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION
dc.subject MEAN GROWTH
dc.subject NEGATIVE EFFECT
dc.subject NEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subject 0 HYPOTHESIS
dc.subject OUTPUT
dc.subject OUTPUT GAP
dc.subject OUTPUT VOLATILITY
dc.subject PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject POOR COUNTRIES
dc.subject PURCHASING POWER
dc.subject REAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject RECESSIONS
dc.subject RICH COUNTRIES
dc.subject RULE OF LAW
dc.subject SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
dc.subject STABILIZATION POLICIES
dc.subject STANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subject STANDARD GROWTH DETERMINANTS
dc.subject STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS
dc.subject SYSTEMIC BANKING CRISES
dc.subject TERMS OF TRADE
dc.subject TRADE OPENNESS
dc.subject TRADE SHOCKS
dc.subject TRANSITIONAL CONVERGENCE
dc.title Volatility and Growth en
dspace.entity.type Publication
okr.doctype Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctype Publications & Research
okr.docurl http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/01/2877484/volatility-growth
okr.globalpractice Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpractice Poverty
okr.globalpractice Governance
okr.globalpractice Finance and Markets
okr.identifier.doi 10.1596/1813-9450-3184
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum 000012009_20040203142259
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum 2877484
okr.identifier.report WPS3184
okr.language.supported en
okr.pdfurl http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2004/02/03/000012009_20040203142259/Rendered/PDF/WPS3184.pdf en
okr.topic Poverty Reduction :: Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topic Economic Theory and Research
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Markets and Market Access
okr.topic Financial Crisis Management and Restructuring
okr.topic Governance :: Governance Indicators
okr.topic Fiscal and Monetary Policy
okr.unit Off of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
okr.volume 1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication 26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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