Publication: Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Raising Firm Productivity
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2021-11
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2022-01-31
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To boost economic growth and foster sustained formal job creation in Kosovo, igniting firm productivity is crucial. Based on detailed micro-data, this note examines the characteristics and recent evolution of firms in Kosovo, with particular attention to firm productivity. For the last decade, the landscape of firms in Kosovo has been dominated by microenterprises with low productivity, employment, and survival rates. Firm creation and growth,small firm density, average size, and the likelihood of survival are all low, which implies that there are severe constraints on private sector development. Kosovo’s firms are only tenuously linked to global markets and the country is lagging in the share of female-run companies. Positive and rising net job creation in 2015-18 was driven by higher formalization of jobs and the increasing size of incumbent firms, especially young small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Kosovo needs a multidimensional policy strategy to foster growth in firm productivity. Based on the study findings and the results of other notes prepared for Kosovo’s country economic memorandum (CEM), this note presents a policy strategy that targets the three main sources of firm productivity growth: (1) firm productivity (the within component); (2) market reallocation (the between component); and (3) firm dynamics (entry and exit). Section one examines the characteristics and recent dynamics of Kosovar firms. Section two analyzes the drivers and evolution of productivity, with emphasis on the links between productivity and access to credit. It also assesses the main barriers to productivity growth. Section three sheds light on how Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected Kosovar firms. Section four concludes by discussing tentative policy implications of the analysis.
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“World Bank. 2021. Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021: Raising Firm Productivity. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36897 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)Kosovo, one of the youngest countries in an aging Europe, took its first steps on the road to greater prosperity a quarter of a century ago. Kosovo’s economy has experienced significant growth in recent years. The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered Kosovo’s first ever recession in 2020. While spending on education has more than doubled, the quality of human capital needs to improve. And barriers to women’s economic empowerment need to be lifted. Proximity to major markets in Europe and a youthful population provide an opportunity for growth. Kosovo is one of the youngest countries in an aging Europe. Trade facilitation and logistics connectivity are getting better. Proximity to a large and affluent market, low taxes and labor costs, a resilient and liquid financial sector, and strong ties with its diaspora will help support growth.Publication Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)Igniting farm productivity can support growth and job creation in Kosovo. Agricultural production, in real terms, has been decreasing in Kosovo since 2009 but employment has not changed much. This note examines drivers of agricultural productivity and its growth in Kosovo, and implied constraints on growth of agriculture, using farm-level data. The results of the productivity analysis suggest that in Kosovo there is a considerable misallocation of resources that if remedied can boost growth and job creation. In Kosovo, which suffers from low technical efficiency (TE), an average farm can produce the same amount of output using 72.8 percent less inputs. For micro and small farms, the current design of farm support does not facilitate income smoothing. On the other hand, agribusiness, mainly food processing, has been growing steadily in terms of number of firms, annual turnover, and employment. Finally, the impacts of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on Kosovo agriculture have been multiple and so have been policy responses.Publication Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)This note assesses pre-university education in Kosovo and identifies policies that can improve education quality and equity. There is a substantial need for improvement to the foundations of the education system, especially in terms of coverage and quality. If Kosovo is to reap the benefits of its demographic dividend for faster growth and poverty reduction, making it a policy to invest in human capital through education must be a priority. The low levels of foundational literacy skills limit the ability of Kosovars to develop the skills the labor market requires, especially for those living in rural areas and minority communities and those of low socioeconomic status. Kosovo has made considerable progress in increasing access to preprimary and primary education, but more needs to be done to equitably increase coverage of preschool and secondary education. Narrowing the wide geographic, ethnic, and socioeconomic disparities in education outcomes and ensuring that all children have access to quality education is paramount. The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is expected to further erode Kosovo’s modest improvements made in education. Employers in Kosovo note the poor quality of the education system and the limited practical and professional skills students acquire.Publication Kosovo Country Economic Memorandum, November 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)Foreign direct investment (FDI) can bring many benefits to Kosovo’s economy, creating more and better jobs and spurring greater and more resilient economic growth. Many transition economies have used FDI as a pillar of their structural transformation and modernization efforts. The small number of firms in Kosovo that include FDI are more productive than other firms, and they were more resilient in the wake of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) economic recession. In Kosovo, FDI inflows have been concentrated in sectors that provide limited potential for productivity spillovers and benefits to the domestic economy. 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The third section combines the findings from the first two sections with an in-depth assessment of Kosovo’s policy, legal, and institutional framework for investment to present a targeted reform agenda and policy action plan to help attract more and higher-quality investments to Kosovo.Publication Kosovo - Unlocking Growth Potential : Strategies, Policies, Actions - A Country Economic Memorandum(World Bank, 2010-04-29)Kosovo's economic growth in the past decade has been solid, yet, with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of 1,760, the country remains one of the poorest in Europe. The end of the conflict, output was growing at double-digit rates, driven by the donor-funded reconstruction efforts. Since 2005, annual growth has decelerated to below 5 percent. However, the other countries in Southeast Europe have been growing faster, so the income gap has widened. Kosovo's economy would need to more than double its growth rate to 10 percent per annum over the next decade to reach Albania's income level (assuming Albania's economy continues to grow at 5.5 percent annually over this period). To reach Montenegro's current GDP per capita level of about 5,700, the economy would have to grow at 12 percent per annum for an entire decade. At the same time, Kosovo has the weakest employment track record in Europe: the unemployment rate has reached 48 percent and the employment rate is extremely low (26 percent). Consequently, poverty remains persistent and widespread (though shallow) with 45 percent of the population estimated to consume less than the national poverty line, while 17 percent are extremely poor. Much of the economic progress in the recent period has been based on donor aid and remittances, which cannot be the foundation of a sustainable economic strategy. Kosovo has the potential to shift toward faster, private sector led growth. Kosovo's products have free market access to the European Union (EU) and Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) countries, so exports could become an important pillar of growth. Unleashing that potential will involve bringing on line three production factors that are now sitting partially idle: labor, land, and energy and minerals. The encouraging news is that unleashing this potential is within the country's own grasp, because most of the current obstacles are of a policy nature. However, simultaneous action will be required on several policy fronts.
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