Publication:
Distinguishing between Observationally Equivalent Theories of Crises

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dc.contributor.authorShankar, Rashmi
dc.date.accessioned2014-08-01T18:24:40Z
dc.date.available2014-08-01T18:24:40Z
dc.date.issued2002-11
dc.description.abstractThe objective of this paper is to empirically test across alternative, apparently observationally equivalent theories of currency crises. Theories of crises are often difficult to distinguish from each other based on the behavior of commonly used predictors. Using a comprehensive data set on gross external assets and liabilities for 167 countries created by the World Bank's Latin America and the Caribbean Region and the Development Research Group, this study is able to make a significant move toward redressing this shortcoming. It focuses on identifying potential crisis predictors, as well as testing the validity of the distinct transmission mechanisms implied by various theories of currency crisis. Evidence is presented in support of insurance-based models, suggesting that proxies for contingent liability accumulation are effective crisis predictors.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/11/2075371/distinguishing-between-observationally-equivalent-theories-crises
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2926
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/19202
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 2926
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectADVERSE SELECTION
dc.subjectASSETS
dc.subjectASYMMETRIC INFORMATION
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subjectBALANCE SHEET
dc.subjectBANK ASSETS
dc.subjectBANK GUARANTEES
dc.subjectBANK RUNS
dc.subjectBANKING CRISES
dc.subjectBANKING CRISIS
dc.subjectBANKING SECTOR
dc.subjectBANKING SYSTEM
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL CONTROLS
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLIGHT
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subjectCURRENCY CRISES
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEPOSIT INSURANCE
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subjectDOMESTIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXPROPRIATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFOREIGN ASSETS
dc.subjectFOREIGN BANKS
dc.subjectFOREIGN CAPITAL
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP DEFLATOR
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectILLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectIMPLICIT GUARANTEES
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINEFFICIENCY
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINSOLVENCY
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subjectLENDER OF LAST RESORT
dc.subjectLIQUID ASSETS
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectM2
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectMAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
dc.subjectMONETARY AUTHORITIES
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMORAL HAZARD
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPORTFOLIO
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectRANDOM WALK
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectREAL WAGES
dc.subjectRECESSION
dc.subjectSTOCK PRICES
dc.subjectTIME SERIES
dc.subjectTRANSMISSION MECHANISM
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectVULNERABILITY
dc.titleDistinguishing between Observationally Equivalent Theories of Crisesen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleDistinguishing between Observationally Equivalent Theories of Crises
okr.date.disclosure2002-11-30
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:12:20.097863Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/11/2075371/distinguishing-between-observationally-equivalent-theories-crises
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.guid274971468739159508
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2926
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000094946_02120504013795
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum2075371
okr.identifier.reportWPS2926
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2002/12/21/000094946_02120504013795/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.geographicalCaribbean
okr.region.geographicalLatin America
okr.sectorFinance :: General finance sector
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicBanks and Banking Reform
okr.topicEnvironmental Economics and Policies
okr.topicInternational Terrorism and Counterterrorism
okr.topicPayment Systems and Infrastructure
okr.topicFinancial Crisis Management and Restructuring
okr.topicFiscal and Monetary Policy
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development
okr.unitOffice of the Chief Economist, Latin America and the Caribbean Region
okr.volume1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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