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Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown?

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dc.contributor.authorPerry, Guillermo
dc.contributor.authorHerrera, Santiago
dc.contributor.authorQuintero, Neile
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-30T18:43:24Z
dc.date.available2014-06-30T18:43:24Z
dc.date.issued2000-05
dc.description.abstractThe authors explain Latin America's growth slowdown in 1998-1999. To do so, they use two complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific external factors: the terms of trade, international interest rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and climatological factors (El Nino). Using quarterly GDP data for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50-60 percent of the slowdown was due to these external factors. The second approach allows for effects on output by some endogeneous variables, such as domestic real interest rates, and real exchange rates. Using monthly industrial performance data, the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector auto-regressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the slowdown in the sub-period 1998-99 is explained more than 60 percent by shocks to the external factors.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/05/437692/output-fluctuations-latin-america-explains-recent-slowdown
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2333
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/18841
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 2333
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subjectAUTOREGRESSION
dc.subjectAVERAGE LEVEL
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectBONDS
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectCD
dc.subjectCONTEMPORANEOUS CORRELATION
dc.subjectCONVERTIBILITY
dc.subjectCOVARIANCE MATRIX
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectCURRENCY CRISES
dc.subjectCURRENCY DEPRECIATION
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subjectDATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectDATA SETS
dc.subjectDEPENDENT VARIABLE
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectDOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectDYNAMIC PANEL
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL LITERATURE
dc.subjectENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS
dc.subjectESTIMATION RESULTS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE VARIABILITY
dc.subjectEXPLANATORY VARIABLES
dc.subjectEXTERNAL % SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL CONDITIONS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FACTORS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectINCREASE GROWTH
dc.subjectINCREASES GROWTH
dc.subjectINDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES
dc.subjectINDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
dc.subjectINDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE SHOCKS
dc.subjectINTERNAL FACTORS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectLAGGED DEPENDENT
dc.subjectLAGGED VALUE
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES
dc.subjectMULTIPLIERS
dc.subjectNEGATIVE EFFECT
dc.subjectOUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectOUTPUT GROWTH
dc.subjectOUTPUT VARIABILITY
dc.subjectOUTPUT VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPANEL REGRESSIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY VARIABLES
dc.subjectPOOLING
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectREAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectRELATIVE IMPORTANCE
dc.subjectSCENARIOS
dc.subjectSTANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS
dc.titleOutput Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown?en
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleOutput Fluctuations in Latin America: What Explains the Recent Slowdown?
okr.date.disclosure2000-05-31
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:41:11.189624Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/05/437692/output-fluctuations-latin-america-explains-recent-slowdown
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.guid617391468743744294
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2333
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000094946_00052005302967
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum437692
okr.identifier.reportWPS2333
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2000/06/05/000094946_00052005302967/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.geographicalLatin America
okr.themeEconomic management :: Macroeconomic management
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicInternational Terrorism and Counterterrorism
okr.topicEnvironmental Economics and Policies
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Macroeconomic Management
okr.topicPayment Systems and Infrastructure
okr.topicFiscal and Monetary Policy
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.unitEconomic Policy Sector Unit and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office
okr.volume1
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb8257292-3111-5480-90dd-5aeb70e52589
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb8257292-3111-5480-90dd-5aeb70e52589
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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