Publication:
Rate Cycles

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dc.contributor.authorForbes, Kristin
dc.contributor.authorHa, Jongrim
dc.contributor.authorKose, M. Ayhan
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-22T21:25:41Z
dc.date.available2024-08-22T21:25:41Z
dc.date.issued2024-08-22
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes cycles in policy interest rates in 24 advanced economies over 1970–2024, combining a new application of business cycle methodology with rich time-series decompositions of the shocks driving rate movements. “Rate cycles” have gradually evolved over time, with less frequent cyclical turning points, more moderate tightening phases, and a larger role for global shocks. Against this backdrop, the 2020–24 rate cycle has been unprecedented in many dimensions: it features the fastest pivot from active easing to a tightening phase, followed by the most globally synchronized tightening, and an unusually long period of holding rates constant. It also exhibits the largest role for global shocks—with global demand shocks still dominant, but an increased role for global supply shocks in explaining interest rate movements. Inflation and the growth in output and employment have, on average, largely returned to historical norms for this stage in a tightening phase. Any recalibration of interest rates going forward should be gradual, however, and account for the interactions between increasingly important global factors and domestic circumstances, combined with uncertainty as to whether rate cycles have reverted to pre-2008 patterns.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099357408202420800/IDU13abc89901592d14fe1194aa1591b8d77e41c
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10876
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/42077
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 10876
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectDEMAND SCHOCKS
dc.subjectSUPPLY SHOCKS
dc.subjectECB
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectBUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectDECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectSDG 8
dc.titleRate Cyclesen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleRate Cycles
okr.date.disclosure2024-08-22
okr.date.lastmodified2024-08-20T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099357408202420800/IDU13abc89901592d14fe1194aa1591b8d77e41c
okr.guid099357408202420800
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-3abc8990-592d-4fe1-94aa-591b8d77e41c
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10876
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10876
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34379456
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34379456
okr.identifier.reportWPS10876
okr.import.id5140
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099357408202420800/pdf/IDU13abc89901592d14fe1194aa1591b8d77e41c.pdfen
okr.region.geographicalWorld
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Finance and Development
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Business Environment
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development
okr.unitProspects Group (DECPG)
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationac9fefe8-9d4d-555d-bb68-f056fd7a3790
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryac9fefe8-9d4d-555d-bb68-f056fd7a3790
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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