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Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates

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dc.contributor.authorGoldemberg, Diana
dc.contributor.authorAzevedo, Joao Pedro
dc.contributor.authorIqbal, Syedah Aroob
dc.contributor.authorHasan, Amer
dc.contributor.authorGeven, Koen
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-18T15:44:36Z
dc.date.available2020-06-18T15:44:36Z
dc.date.issued2020-06
dc.description.abstractSchool closures due to COVID-19 have left more than a billion students out of school. This paper presents the results of simulations considering three, five and seven months of school closure and different levels of mitigation effectiveness resulting in optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic global scenarios. Using data on 157 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of schooling and learning will fall. COVID-19 could result in a loss of between 0.3 and 0.9 years of schooling adjusted for quality, bringing down the effective years of basic schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7.9 years to between 7.0 and 7.6 years. Close to 7 million students from primary up to secondary education could drop out due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Students from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction of $355, $872, or $1,408 in yearly earnings. In present value terms, this amounts to between $6,472 and $25,680 dollars in lost earnings over a typical student's lifetime. Exclusion and inequality will likely be exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups, like girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities, are more adversely affected by the school closures. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could generate learning losses that have a present value of $10 trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make in the basic education of this cohort of students. The world could thus face a substantial setback in achieving the goal of halving the percentage of learning poor and be unable to meet the goal by 2030 unless drastic remedial action is taken.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/329961592483383689/Simulating-the-Potential-Impacts-of-COVID-19-School-Closures-on-Schooling-and-Learning-Outcomes-A-Set-of-Global-Estimates
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9284
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/33945
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9284
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectPANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectSCHOOL CLOSURE
dc.subjectLEARNING LOSS
dc.subjectLEARNING OUTCOMES
dc.subjectEDUCATION
dc.subjectDROPOUT RATE
dc.titleSimulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomesen
dc.title.subtitleA Set of Global Estimatesen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleSimulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates
okr.date.disclosure2020-06-18
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/329961592483383689/Simulating-the-Potential-Impacts-of-COVID-19-School-Closures-on-Schooling-and-Learning-Outcomes-A-Set-of-Global-Estimates
okr.guid329961592483383689
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9284
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b087a8366d_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum32145839
okr.identifier.reportWPS9284
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/329961592483383689/pdf/Simulating-the-Potential-Impacts-of-COVID-19-School-Closures-on-Schooling-and-Learning-Outcomes-A-Set-of-Global-Estimates.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined24975
okr.statistics.dr329961592483383689
okr.statistics.drstats12852
okr.topicEducation::Early Childhood Development
okr.topicEducation::Economics of Education
okr.topicEducation::Education For All
okr.topicEducation::Primary Education
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Health and Poverty
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Public Health Promotion
okr.topicEducation::Secondary Education
okr.unitEducation Global Practice
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relation.isAuthorOfPublicationef08efb0-dbe1-5bbb-862c-06d9464d6e22
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery360f7a2e-0784-56e1-acf4-7f805fd50257
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