Publication:
Geospatial Analysis of Displacement in Afghanistan

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dc.contributor.authorDahmani Scuitti, Anais
dc.contributor.authorKnippenberg, Erwin
dc.contributor.authorKosmidou-Bradley, Walker
dc.contributor.authorBelanger, Johanna Lee
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-09T20:03:21Z
dc.date.available2023-10-09T20:03:21Z
dc.date.issued2023-10-09
dc.description.abstractGiven increasing levels of displacement due to conflict and climate change, it is important to establish robust monitoring systems. This paper explores how remote sensing data, particularly geospatial data, can be leveraged to monitor displacement flows. It draws lessons from northeastern Afghanistan, namely the 2018 drought, which is considered one of the worst in decades. The analysis identifies displacement patterns by combining displacement data from the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix with nighttime lights. The results suggest that the cumulated displacement movements from 2018 to 2020 can be proxied by trends in nighttime light imagery. Settlements with higher net inflows of displaced persons between 2018 and 2020 have comparatively larger nighttime light growth. Allowing for nonlinearity suggests decreasing marginal returns of displacement on nighttime lights, as settlements showing the largest expansion of nighttime lights are those with the lowest displacement inflows. The model uses data on nighttime lights to predict whether a settlement was a net receiver of displacement flows during 2018–20 and correctly classifies 63.2 percent of the settlements as net inflow or net outflow. This study provides a proof of concept to test whether population displacements can be proxied using geospatial data trained on administrative records in a data-scarce environment, where real-time insights can inform humanitarian assistance. This work was done before the political crisis of August 2021.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099807010042337170/IDU03c1ca6ba06ffa0476108e1f0709f7beb61e2
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10583
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40439
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers; 10583
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectMIGRATION
dc.subjectDISPLACEMENT
dc.subjectGEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC REGRESSIONS
dc.subjectNIGHTTIME LIGHT
dc.titleGeospatial Analysis of Displacement in Afghanistanen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleGeospatial Analysis of Displacement in Afghanistan
okr.date.disclosure2023-10-04
okr.date.lastmodified2023-10-04T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099807010042337170/IDU03c1ca6ba06ffa0476108e1f0709f7beb61e2
okr.guid099807010042337170
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-3c1ca6ba-6ffa-4761-8e1f-709f7beb61e2
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10583
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10583
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34174889
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34174889
okr.identifier.reportWPS10583
okr.import.id1951
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099807010042337170/pdf/IDU03c1ca6ba06ffa0476108e1f0709f7beb61e2.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryAfghanistan
okr.sectorCentral Government (Central Agencies)
okr.themeInclusive Growth,Data Development and Capacity Building,Financial Stability,Economic Policy,Rural Development,Social Development and Protection,Economic Growth and Planning,Finance,Fragility, Conflict and Violence,Public Sector Management,Urban and Rural Development,Geospatial Services,Data production, accessibility and use,Transparency, Accountability and Good Governance,Spatial Growth,Public Administration,Financial Sector Integrity,Forced Displacement
okr.topicCommunities and Human Settlements::Human Migrations & Resettlements
okr.topicSocial Development::Social Analysis
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Economic Geography
okr.unitEFI-SAR-POV-Poverty and Equity (ESAPV)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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