dc.contributor.author	World Bank
dc.date.accessioned	2024-03-26T15:03:03Z
dc.date.available	2024-03-26T15:03:03Z
dc.date.issued	2024-04-25
dc.description.abstract	The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some countervailing forces offsetting tepid demand, such as heightened geopolitical strains and increasing metals-intensive investments in the energy transition. Commodity prices are forecast to soften marginally in 2024 and 2025 but remain substantially above pre-pandemic levels. Unlike most other prices, crude oil prices are expected to increase in 2024, mainly reflecting geopolitical tensions. The key risk to commodity price projections relates to the possibility of a broadening of the Middle East conflict, which could lead to significantly higher oil prices, thus reigniting global inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, food insecurity worsened markedly last year, reflecting elevated food prices and armed conflicts around the world. Should such conflicts worsen, global hunger could rise substantially. Heightened uncertainty around the commodity price outlook underscores the importance of forecast accuracy. A Special Focus section evaluates the performance of five approaches used to forecast prices of three commodities—aluminum, copper, and oil. It concludes that there is no “one-approach-beats-all.” Macroeconometric models tend to be more accurate at longer horizons, mainly due to their ability to account for the impact of structural changes. It is, however, critical to incorporate judgment and information that cannot be accounted for by statistical approaches. This highlights the importance of employing a wide range of approaches when forecasting commodity prices.
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/41280
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/41280
dc.language.iso	en_US
dc.publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject	COMMODITY PRICES
dc.subject	ENERGY PRICES
dc.subject	INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES
dc.subject	OIL AND GAS
dc.subject	OPEC
dc.subject	OPEC+
dc.subject	AGRICULTURE PRICES
dc.subject	METAL PRICES
dc.subject	CRITICAL MINERALS
dc.subject	PRECIOUS METALS
dc.subject	AFFORDABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY
dc.subject	SDG 7
dc.title	Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024	en
dc.type	Serial
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.crossref.title	Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024
okr.date.disclosure	2024-04-25
okr.date.doiregistration	2025-04-15T11:43:43.346552Z
okr.date.doiregistration	2025-04-30T04:31:15.011288Z
okr.doctype	Publications & Research::Publication
okr.docurl	https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099548005132432324/idu17e28d2121917814ab41a1221f82604cfb20f
okr.guid	099548005132432324
okr.identifier.docmid	P176968
okr.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.1596/41280
okr.identifier.report	190167
okr.region.geographical	World
okr.topic	Energy::Energy Markets
okr.topic	Energy::Oil & Gas
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Commodities
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.unit	Prospects Group (DECPG)

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Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024