Publication:
The Role of Inventory Adjustments in Quantifying Factors Causing Food Price Inflation

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dc.contributor.authorHochman, Gal
dc.contributor.authorRajagopal, Deepak
dc.contributor.authorTimilsina, Govinda
dc.contributor.authorZilberman, David
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-19T18:03:40Z
dc.date.available2012-03-19T18:03:40Z
dc.date.issued2011-08-01
dc.description.abstractThe food commodity price increases beginning in 2001 and culminating in the food crisis of 2007/08 reflected a combination of several factors, including economic growth, biofuel expansion, exchange rate fluctuations, and energy price inflation. To quantify these influences, the authors developed an empirical model that also included crop inventory adjustments. The study shows that, if inventory effects are not taken into account, the impacts of the various factors on food commodity price inflation would be overestimated. If the analysis ignores crop inventory adjustments, it indicates that prices of corn, soybean, rapeseed, rice, and wheat would have been, respectively, 42, 38, 52, and 45 percent lower than the corresponding observed prices in 2007. If inventories are properly taken into account, the contributions of the above mentioned factors to those commodity prices are 36, 26, 26, and 35 percent, respectively. Those four factors, taken together, explain 70 percent of the price increase for corn, 55 percent for soybean, 54 percent for wheat, and 47 percent for rice during the 2001-2007 period. Other factors, such as speculation, trade policy, and weather shocks, which are not included in the analysis, might be responsible for the remaining contribution to the food commodity price increases.en
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110801103735
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5744
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/3506
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPaper is funded by the Knowledge for Change Program (KCP),Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5744
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectABSOLUTE VALUE
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND CURVE
dc.subjectAGGREGATE SUPPLY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL POLICY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRICES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
dc.subjectANNUAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectBUFFER
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCEREALS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY MARKETS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectCONSUMER SURPLUS
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION DEMAND
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION INCREASES
dc.subjectCORN
dc.subjectCORN PRICE
dc.subjectCORN PRICES
dc.subjectCORRELATION COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectDAIRY
dc.subjectDEMAND CURVE
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR FOOD
dc.subjectDEMAND FUNCTION
dc.subjectDEMAND FUNCTIONS
dc.subjectDEMAND GROWTH
dc.subjectDEPRECIATION
dc.subjectDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDISPOSABLE INCOME
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subjectDUMMY VARIABLES
dc.subjectECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectENERGY DEMAND
dc.subjectENERGY PRICE
dc.subjectENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM CONDITION
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
dc.subjectEXCESS DEMAND
dc.subjectEXCESS SUPPLY
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE SHOCK
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectFACTOR PRICES
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectFOOD CROPS
dc.subjectFOOD DEMAND
dc.subjectFOOD EXPORT
dc.subjectFOOD EXPORTS
dc.subjectFOOD MARKETS
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE INFLATION
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD SUBSIDIES
dc.subjectFOODS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS
dc.subjectGLOBAL DEMAND
dc.subjectGLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY
dc.subjectGLOBALIZATION
dc.subjectGNP
dc.subjectGRAINS
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectIFPRI
dc.subjectIMPACT OF SHOCKS
dc.subjectIMPORT
dc.subjectIMPORT BARRIERS
dc.subjectIMPORT TARIFFS
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME EFFECT
dc.subjectINCOME EFFECTS
dc.subjectINCOME ELASTICITIES
dc.subjectINCOME ELASTICITY
dc.subjectINCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINPUT PRICES
dc.subjectINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL PRICE
dc.subjectINVENTORIES
dc.subjectINVENTORY
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subjectLONG-TERM EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectM1
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
dc.subjectMAIZE
dc.subjectMAJOR CURRENCIES
dc.subjectMAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES
dc.subjectMARKET ANALYSIS
dc.subjectMARKET EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectMARKET POWER
dc.subjectMARKETING
dc.subjectMEAT
dc.subjectMEATS
dc.subjectMILK POWDER
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOIL SUPPLIES
dc.subjectOPPORTUNITY COSTS
dc.subjectPATENTS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOMES
dc.subjectPETROLEUM PRICES
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPORK
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGE
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE CONTROLS
dc.subjectPRICE DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPRICE EFFECT
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITIES
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY
dc.subjectPRICE FLUCTUATION
dc.subjectPRICE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASE
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectPRICE INDICES
dc.subjectPRICE INFLATION
dc.subjectPRICE LEVEL
dc.subjectPRICE STABILITY
dc.subjectPRICE TRENDS
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRIMARY COMMODITIES
dc.subjectPRIMARY COMMODITY
dc.subjectPROCESSED FOODS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION COSTS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPROTEIN
dc.subjectRANDOM WALK
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectRATE OF GROWTH
dc.subjectREFINERIES
dc.subjectREGULATORY FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectRESTAURANTS
dc.subjectRETAIL
dc.subjectSLOWDOWN
dc.subjectSOYBEAN
dc.subjectSOYBEANS
dc.subjectSTANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectSTAPLE FOODS
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSTRONG DEMAND
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTE
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTES
dc.subjectSUGAR
dc.subjectSUGARCANE
dc.subjectSUPERMARKETS
dc.subjectSUPPLIERS
dc.subjectSUPPLY CHAIN
dc.subjectSUPPLY CURVES
dc.subjectSUPPLY FUNCTION
dc.subjectSUPPLY SHOCKS
dc.subjectSUPPLY SIDE
dc.subjectSUPPLY-SIDE
dc.subjectSURPLUS
dc.subjectTARIFF REDUCTIONS
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPORTS
dc.subjectTOTAL IMPORTS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICIES
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectTRADE RESTRICTIONS
dc.subjectUPWARD PRESSURE
dc.subjectURUGUAY ROUND
dc.subjectVEGETABLE OILS
dc.subjectWHEAT
dc.subjectWORLD DEMAND
dc.subjectWORLD PRICE
dc.subjectWORLD PRICES
dc.titleThe Role of Inventory Adjustments in Quantifying Factors Causing Food Price Inflationen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaJobs
okr.crossref.titleThe Role of Inventory Adjustments in Quantifying Factors Causing Food Price Inflation
okr.date.disclosure2011-08-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:20:03.339657Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110801103735
okr.globalpracticeAgriculture
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid860221468326686333
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5744
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20110801103735
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum14698450
okr.identifier.reportWPS5744
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/08/01/000158349_20110801103735/Rendered/PDF/WPS5744.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeThe World Region
okr.region.administrativeThe World Region
okr.sectorEnergy efficiency in power sector
okr.sectorEnergy and mining
okr.topicIndustry::Food & Beverage Industry
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.unitDECRG: Agriculture & Rural Devt. (DECAR)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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