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Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty in the Philippines : A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

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dc.contributor.authorCororaton, Caesar B.
dc.contributor.authorCockburn, John
dc.contributor.authorCorong, Erwin
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-21T15:09:00Z
dc.date.available2012-06-21T15:09:00Z
dc.date.issued2005-10
dc.description.abstractSince the early 1980s the Philippines has undertaken substantial trade reform. The current Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations is now likely to bring further reform and shocks to world import prices and export demand. The impact of all these developments on the poor is not very clear and is the subject of intense debate. The authors use a detailed economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to run a series of policy experiments. They find that poverty increases slightly with the implementation of the prospective Doha scenario. These effects are focused primarily among rural households in the wake of falling world prices and demand for the Philippines' agricultural exports. The authors find that the impacts of full liberalization-involving free world trade and complete domestic liberalization-depend strongly on the mechanism the government adopts to offset forgone tariff revenue. If an indirect tax is used, the incidence of poverty falls marginally, but the depth (poverty gap) and severity (squared poverty gap) increase substantially. If, instead, an income tax is used, all measures of poverty increase. In both cases, full liberalization favors urban households, as exports, which are primarily nonagricultural, expand. In separate simulations, the authors discover that free world trade is poverty reducing and favors rural households, whereas domestic liberalization is poverty increasing and favors urban households. Under free world trade, rural households benefit from increasing world agricultural demand. The anti-rural bias of domestic liberalization stems from the fact that import prices fall more for agricultural goods than for industrial goods, as initial import-weighted average tariff rates are higher for the former. In conclusion, the current Doha agreement appears likely to slightly increase poverty, especially in rural areas and among the unemployed, self-employed, and rural low-educated. The Philippines is found to have an interest in pushing for more ambitious world trade liberalization, as free world trade holds out promise for reducing poverty.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/10/6318939/doha-scenarios-trade-reforms-poverty-philippines-computable-general-equilibrium-analysis
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-3738
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/8637
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; No. 3738
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.titleDoha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, and Poverty in the Philippines : A Computable General Equilibrium Analysisen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleDoha Scenarios, Trade Reforms, And Poverty In The Philippines : A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T07:19:50.366109Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/10/6318939/doha-scenarios-trade-reforms-poverty-philippines-computable-general-equilibrium-analysis
okr.guid420721468333071538
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-3738
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000016406_20050930154415
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum6318939
okr.identifier.reportWPS3738
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2005/09/30/000016406_20050930154415/Rendered/PDF/wps3738.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.countryPhilippines
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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