Publication:
Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Change

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dc.contributor.authorLotsch, Alexander
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-07T21:53:09Z
dc.date.available2012-06-07T21:53:09Z
dc.date.issued2007-07
dc.description.abstractThe detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals significant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland density responds positively to increases in precipitation in semi-arid and arid zones of the sub-tropics and warmer temperatures in higher elevations. As a result, marginal increases in seasonal precipitation lead to denser cropping areas in arid and semi-arid regions. Warmer temperatures, on the other hand, tend to decrease the probability of cropping in most parts of Africa (the opposite is true for increases in rainfall and decreases in temperatures relative to current conditions). Despite discrepancies and uncertainties in climate model output, the analysis suggests that cropland area in Africa is likely to decrease significantly in response to transient changes in climate. The continent is expected to have lost on average 4.1 percent of its cropland by 2039, and 18.4 percent is likely to have disappeared by the end of the century. In some regions of Africa the losses in cropland area are likely to occur at a much faster rate, with northern and eastern Africa losing up to 15 percent of their current cropland area within the next 30 years or so. Gains in cropland area in western and southern Africa due to projected increases in precipitation during the earlier portions of the century will be offset by losses later on. In conjunction with existing challenges in the agricultural sector in Africa, these findings demand sound policies to manage existing agricultural lands and the productivity of cropping systems.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7998467/sensitivity-cropping-patterns-africa-transient-climate-change
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-4289
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/7480
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; No. 4289
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL LAND
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL MARKETS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectALLOCATION OF LAND
dc.subjectALTITUDE
dc.subjectARID ZONES
dc.subjectATMOSPHERE
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectBIOSPHERE
dc.subjectCARBON
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGES
dc.subjectCLIMATE CONTROLS
dc.subjectCLIMATE DYNAMICS
dc.subjectCLIMATE EFFECTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE IMPACTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODELS
dc.subjectCLIMATE RESEARCH
dc.subjectCLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT
dc.subjectCLIMATE SENSITIVITY
dc.subjectCLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subjectCLIMATE SYSTEMS
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABILITY
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABLES
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIATION
dc.subjectCLIMATIC CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATIC ZONES
dc.subjectCLIMATOLOGY
dc.subjectCONGO BASIN
dc.subjectCROP
dc.subjectCROP YIELD
dc.subjectCROPLAND
dc.subjectCROPLANDS
dc.subjectCROPPING
dc.subjectCROPPING PATTERNS
dc.subjectCROPPING SYSTEMS
dc.subjectCROPS
dc.subjectCULTIVATION
dc.subjectDATES
dc.subjectDEGRADATION
dc.subjectDEGRADATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION OF CROPLAND
dc.subjectECOLOGICAL ZONES
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECOSYSTEMS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFARMING
dc.subjectFERTILIZATION
dc.subjectFLOODS
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOREST
dc.subjectGENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL
dc.subjectGEOSPHERE
dc.subjectGLOBAL ATMOSPHERE
dc.subjectGLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectGLOBAL POPULATION
dc.subjectGLOBAL WARMING
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GASES
dc.subjectGROWING SEASON
dc.subjectHORN OF AFRICA
dc.subjectIFPRI
dc.subjectINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectIRRIGATION
dc.subjectLAKES
dc.subjectLAND COVER
dc.subjectLAND MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectLAND PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectLAND USE PATTERNS
dc.subjectLAND USES
dc.subjectLOW TEMPERATURES
dc.subjectMAGNITUDE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONS
dc.subjectMETEOROLOGY
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectNITROGEN
dc.subjectPLANT GROWTH
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectRURAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectRURAL INCOME
dc.subjectRURAL INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectRURAL LIVELIHOODS
dc.subjectRURAL POVERTY
dc.subjectRURAL SECTOR
dc.subjectSAFETY NETS
dc.subjectSAHEL
dc.subjectSEA
dc.subjectSEA ICE
dc.subjectSOIL
dc.subjectSOIL CHARACTERISTICS
dc.subjectSOIL FERTILITY
dc.subjectSOILS
dc.subjectSPRING
dc.subjectSTORMS
dc.subjectSULFATE
dc.subjectSURFACE TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE CHANGE
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE CHANGES
dc.subjectTERRACING
dc.subjectVEGETATION
dc.subjectWORLD FOOD SUPPLY
dc.titleSensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa to Transient Climate Changeen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleSensitivity of cropping patterns in Africa to transient climate change
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T07:19:43.460786Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/07/7998467/sensitivity-cropping-patterns-africa-transient-climate-change
okr.globalpracticeSocial, Urban, Rural and Resilience
okr.globalpracticeAgriculture
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.globalpracticeEnvironment and Natural Resources
okr.guid229651468204837060
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-4289
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20070730154846
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum7998467
okr.identifier.reportWPS4289
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2007/07/30/000158349_20070730154846/Rendered/PDF/wps4289.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.topicRural Development::Common Property Resource Development
okr.topicEnvironment::Global Environment Facility
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.topicCrops and Crop Management Systems
okr.topicClimate Change
okr.topicAgriculture
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isAuthorOfPublication1ef02828-de51-434a-a375-9333db120f1a
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery1ef02828-de51-434a-a375-9333db120f1a
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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