Publication:
Climatic Shocks and Internal Migration: Evidence from 442 Million Personal Records in 64 Countries

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dc.contributor.authorAbel, Guy J.
dc.contributor.authorMuttarak, Raya
dc.contributor.authorStephany, Fabian
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-28T15:55:17Z
dc.date.available2022-01-28T15:55:17Z
dc.date.issued2022-01-27
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines whether and how climatic shocks influence individual migration decisions. The authors use census microdata across 64 countries over the period 1960 to 2012, covering 442 million individual records, combined with geo-referenced temperature and precipitation data summarized for each origin and destination administrative unit. Migration is identified when an individual changed a place of usual residence one, five, or ten years ago to a new major administrative unit in the same country. Given an exceptionally large number of observations, the authors apply a two-step approach to analyze the relationship between exposure to climatic shocks and migration. First, the authors use random forest models to uncover that in many countries climatic shocks are as important as better-known individual-level covariates in determining migration decisions. This observation serves as a yardstick for the second step of the analysis. For a subset of countries, where rainfall shocks play an important role in migration, the authors compare internal migration patterns across time by examining whether a region experiencing positive or negative rainfall shocks observed higher or lower migration. The authors find that negative rainfall shocks suppress outmigration particularly for low-income countries. The opposite is true for positive rainfall shocks whereby migration is found to increase, especially for lower-income countries. The finding supports the liquidity constraint argument whereby adverse climatic conditions can disrupt migration financing and consequently suppress ability to migrate.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/099055001252216358/P173491-8fbaa9a6-8fb5-485c-90a6-f963a20ffd48
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/36886
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/36886
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectINTERNAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE SHOCK
dc.subjectCLIMATE RESILIENCE
dc.subjectMIGRATION DRIVERS
dc.subjectCENSUS DATA
dc.subjectINTERNAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectRANDOM FOREST MODEL
dc.subjectMACHINE LEARNING
dc.titleClimatic Shocks and Internal Migrationen
dc.title.subtitleEvidence from 442 Million Personal Records in 64 Countriesen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleClimatic Shocks and Internal Migration
okr.date.disclosure2022-01-28
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-05T11:28:37.204255Z
okr.date.lastmodified2022-01-28T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/099055001252216358/P173491-8fbaa9a6-8fb5-485c-90a6-f963a20ffd48
okr.guid099055001252216358
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum33713153
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33713153
okr.identifier.report168232
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change Impacts
okr.topicEnvironment::Water Resources Management
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Migration and Development
okr.topicWater Resources::Hydrology
okr.topicWater Resources::Water and Food Supply
okr.unitGlobal Solutions Water (SWAGL)
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