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Income Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria

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dc.contributor.authorAbidoye, Babatunde
dc.contributor.authorCalì, Massimiliano
dc.date.accessioned2015-03-31T14:57:19Z
dc.date.available2015-03-31T14:57:19Z
dc.date.issued2015-03
dc.description.abstractThis paper extends the micro evidence on the impact of income shocks on civil conflict using data across Nigerian states over the past decade. The paper uses an innovative empirical strategy matching household survey, oil production, and domestic and international price data to capture three separate channels linking income changes to conflict. Price increases of consumed items have a significant conflict-inducing effect consistent with the hypothesis that they reduce real incomes and thus the opportunity cost of fighting. Failure to include this consumption impact severely biases (toward zero) the conflict-reducing effect of price rises of agricultural commodities via production. In addition, oil price hikes increase conflict intensity in oil producing areas, consistent with the "rapacity" hypothesis. However, this effect disappears in the period after the agreement granting amnesty to militant groups in oil-producing areas. The paper also discusses the importance of factors mediating the impact of the shocks on conflict and a number of policy implications following the analysis. Finally, the empirical strategy is employed to unveil a strong relationship between income shocks and violence in the current Boko Haram conflict. The analysis suggests some policy implications, which may be relevant for the Nigerian context and beyond.en
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7213
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/21652
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank Group, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7213
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjecteconomic shocks
dc.subjectconflict
dc.subjectcommodity prices
dc.titleIncome Shocks and Conflicten
dc.title.subtitleEvidence from Nigeriaen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaFragility, Conflict, and Violence
okr.crossref.titleIncome Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria
okr.date.disclosure2015-03-11
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T07:18:11.461717Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid610151468188673741
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7213
okr.identifier.reportWPS7213
okr.language.supporteden
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.countryNigeria
okr.topicAgriculture::Commodity Risk Management
okr.topicConflict and Development::Conflict and Fragile States
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Commodities
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Consumption
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Income
okr.topicEnergy::Oil & Gas
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.unitTrade and Competitiveness Global Practice Group
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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