Publication:
Groundswell Africa: A Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegal

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dc.contributor.authorRigaud, Kanta Kumari
dc.contributor.authorde Sherbinin, Alex
dc.contributor.authorJones, Bryan
dc.contributor.authorAbu-Ata, Nathalie E.
dc.contributor.authorAdamo, Susana
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-02T13:50:01Z
dc.date.available2021-11-02T13:50:01Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-18
dc.description.abstractThe World Bank’s flagship report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility (Rigaud et al. 2018). An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region. The recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, West Africa could see as many as 32.0 million people move because of slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge. These spatial population shifts will represent up to 3.5 percent of the total population of West Africa. Understanding the scale and the patterns of these climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert, minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. By 2050, internal climate migration in Senegal could reach more than 1 million. This figure represents 3.3 percent of the population, at the high end of the confidence interval under the pessimistic scenario, which combines high emissions with unequal development. In alternative scenarios, more inclusive and climate-friendly, the scale of climate migration would be reduced. The greatest gains in modulating the scale of climate migration are realized under the optimistic scenario, which combines low emissions with moderate development pathways. The number of climate migrants would drop from a mean value of 600,000 under the pessimistic and reference scenario in 2050 to 90,000 in 2050 under the optimistic scenario, which translates into a reduction of 85 percent. This major drop underscores the critical need for both inclusive development and low emissions to modulate the scale of climate migration, with the greatest gains achieved through early action.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/776881634532602504/Groundswell-Africa-A-Deep-Dive-into-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-Senegal
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/36445
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/36445
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectMIGRATION
dc.subjectINTERNAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE MIGRATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT
dc.subjectCLIMATE RESILIENCE
dc.subjectDISPLACEMENT
dc.titleGroundswell Africaen
dc.title.subtitleA Deep Dive into Internal Climate Migration in Senegalen
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-climate-business-plan
okr.crossref.titleGroundswell Africa
okr.date.disclosure2021-10-18
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-05T11:38:04.690226Z
okr.date.lastmodified2021-10-13T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/776881634532602504/Groundswell-Africa-A-Deep-Dive-into-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-Senegal
okr.guid237101639030869806
okr.guid776881634532602504
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b088a792d8_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33486939
okr.identifier.report165170
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/776881634532602504/pdf/Groundswell-Africa-A-Deep-Dive-into-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-Senegal.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.administrativeAfrica Western and Central (AFW)
okr.region.countrySenegal
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change Impacts
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change and Environment
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Migration and Development
okr.unitEnvironment, Natural Resources and Blue Economy Global Practice
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