Publication:
Resource Discoveries, Learning, and National Income Accounting

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dc.contributor.authorHamilton, Kirk
dc.contributor.authorAtkinson, Giles
dc.date.accessioned2013-09-26T16:21:54Z
dc.date.available2013-09-26T16:21:54Z
dc.date.issued2013-06
dc.description.abstractQuestions about the ultimate size of mineral and energy resource endowments and the degree of fiscal prudence which should be exercised by countries engaged in resource extraction have become central for many developing countries during the recent resource boom. To explore these questions, this paper develops a model of optimal resource extraction and discovery that combines two polar assumptions: (i) that discovering a resource today drives up the cost of future resource discoveries, and (ii) that extracting resources yields knowledge that reduces the cost of discovery. Although the model shows that resource discoveries should be valued at marginal discovery cost in measures of national saving and income, the ultimate size of the resource that can be exploited is the result of the interplay between rising discovery costs and accumulating knowledge. Empirical tests of the model show that the resulting income estimates would be extremely volatile for many extractive economies, owing to the lumpiness of resource discoveries. Two alternative accounting approaches, based on Hicksian concepts, yield more intuitive and less volatile income estimates. The question of fiscal prudence for extractive economies hinges on how optimistic countries are about the risks in future mineral and energy markets, and how far into the future these countries are willing to project optimistic trends when making decisions about how much to consume and how much to save of current resource revenues.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17919466/resource-discoveries-learning-national-income-accounting
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6505
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/15864
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6505
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectALLOCATION
dc.subjectASSET VALUE
dc.subjectBALANCE SHEET
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectCAPITAL GAIN
dc.subjectCAPITAL GAINS
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLOSED ECONOMY
dc.subjectCONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION INCREASES
dc.subjectCURRENT PRICES
dc.subjectDEPOSIT
dc.subjectDEPOSITS
dc.subjectDERIVATIVE
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATES
dc.subjectDISCOUNTED VALUE
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC FACTORS
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectECONOMIC THEORY
dc.subjectECONOMICS
dc.subjectENERGY ECONOMICS
dc.subjectENERGY POLICY
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL ACCOUNTING
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectEXPECTED VALUE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPLOITATION
dc.subjectEXPORTER
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectFACE VALUE
dc.subjectFEASIBILITY
dc.subjectFINANCIAL ASSETS
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectFUNCTIONAL FORMS
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectIMPERFECT ECONOMIES
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME MEASURES
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINVESTING
dc.subjectLAND PRICES
dc.subjectMARGINAL PRODUCT
dc.subjectMARGINAL UTILITY
dc.subjectMARGINAL UTILITY OF CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectMONOPOLY
dc.subjectNATIONAL ACCOUNTING
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTING
dc.subjectNATIONAL SAVING
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOIL
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOIL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectOIL RESERVE
dc.subjectOIL RESOURCE
dc.subjectOIL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOLIGOPOLY
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMIES
dc.subjectOPTIMIZATION
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPRESENT VALUE
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectPROVEN OIL RESERVES
dc.subjectPROVEN RESERVES
dc.subjectRENT SEEKING
dc.subjectRESERVE
dc.subjectRESOURCE ECONOMICS
dc.subjectRETURN
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSAVINGS RATES
dc.subjectSHADOW PRICES
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
dc.subjectTECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTIES
dc.subjectUTILITY FUNCTION
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectresource discoveries
dc.titleResource Discoveries, Learning, and National Income Accountingen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaClimate Change
okr.crossref.titleResource Discoveries, Learning, and National Income Accounting
okr.date.disclosure2013-06-07
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T12:05:36.895969Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17919466/resource-discoveries-learning-national-income-accounting
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeEnvironment and Natural Resources
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.guid697801468328808812
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6505
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20130625112946
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum17919466
okr.identifier.reportWPS6505
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/06/25/000158349_20130625112946/Rendered/PDF/WPS6505.pdfen
okr.sectorEnergy and mining
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicBanks and Banking Reform
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Climate Change Economics
okr.topicEnvironmental Economics and Policies
okr.topicEnvironment
okr.unitEnvironment and Energy Team, Development Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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