Publication: Belarus : Window of Opportunity to Enhance Competitiveness and Sustain Economic Growth, A Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus, Volume 2, Executive Summary
Loading...
Published
2005-11
ISSN
Date
2012-06-18
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus takes stock of the growth trends in the country's economy since 1996, reviews the evidence of the accumulated challenges and risks within the existing growth patterns, and provides recommendations aimed at strengthening growth sustainability. In sum, while economic growth in the last nine years has been impressive, the report argues that maintaining the current growth strategy would lead to a gradual erosion of economic competitiveness. The government should make significant policy adjustments by reorienting its policies toward ensuring a better business environment, and a smaller sized government. Current international and domestic environment are favorable for supporting a policy shift toward the acceleration of structural reforms. At the moment, the government is well equipped to mitigate the potential costs of these reforms, because the policy settings are largely determined by the growing economy, the positive trends in both the enterprise and the household sectors, favorable developments in the global economy, low debt, and the strong administrative capacity of the state. This situation could change: various pressures might become stronger, and then these same reforms would become politically more costly, and fiscally more risky. In short, the current window of opportunity should be used to ensure that the authorities' growth and poverty objectives are sustainable in the medium to long terms. The analysis in this report has documented a significant and broad-based growth, while pointing to the erosion of several important factors that have driven this growth recently. The Belarusian economy is facing a considerable risk of declining competitiveness. To sustain growth, a significant policy adjustment is necessary to enhance market discipline, and encourage new business entry.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2005. Belarus : Window of Opportunity to Enhance Competitiveness and Sustain Economic Growth, A Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus, Volume 2, Executive Summary. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8351 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Belarus - Industrial Performance Before and During the Global Crisis : Belarus Economic Policy Notes : Note No. 2(World Bank, 2010-06-25)This note attempts to analyze and tentatively answer these questions by focusing on the drivers of growth and productivity, labor markets and enterprise restructuring, as well as the state system of enterprise support, which is key to understanding the interplay between the state and the economy in Belarus. The period of analysis covers 2004-08 with appropriate references to the previous periods and comparisons with Russia and/or other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. The final section explores the Belarus's industrial performance in the period of the global crisis (late 2008-09) and reviews the government's policies that have been largely responsible for a relatively mild effect of the crisis on economic dynamics in the country. The analysis is based on the official statistics provided to the team by the National Statistics Committee (Belstat), National Bank, and various ministries, as well as statistics from other national and international statistical sources. In addition, the analysis benefited from the data provided by various enterprise surveys undertaken by the Research Institute by the Ministry of Economy (RIME) and from two sector case studies (in machinery and dairy sub-sectors). Belarus has weathered the crisis so far better than most of its neighbors, in part due to the government policies to boost domestic demand in a predominantly state-owned and controlled economy. This was achieved at a considerable macroeconomic cost. The country's ability to sustain possible future shocks declined, and macroeconomic risks increased. The crisis has further exposed risks associated with the Government of Belarus (GOB) practice of heavy reliance on administratively set targets for large and medium-size enterprises, especially targets for output and average wage growth.Publication Ukraine's Trade Policy : A Strategy for Integration into Global Trade(Washington, DC, 2005)This publication identifies the key drivers of Ukraine's recent trade performance, assesses current trade policies, and proposes recommendations to strengthen the Ukraine's trade integration strategy. It also identifies core bottlenecks in the ongoing integration processes, including global and regional integration. The study concludes that the main obstacles to furthering Ukraine's trade integration are domestic, and relate to deficiencies in the business environment. Problems in customs administration, standardization, and administrative barriers for new entry require immediate attention. The report highlights specific policy issues that hamper World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, such as trade legislation, protection of intellectual property rights, government support for specific industries, and export restrictions. It also recommends improvements in the structure of Ukraine's import tariffs, reform of both the regime of free economic zones and mechanism of the value-added tax (VAT) refund, and investment in a major upgrade of government capacity for investment and export promotion. The report also draws attention to the importance of the post-WTO accession agenda for Ukraine. To take advantage of WTO membership, the Government will need to undertake significant institutional reforms to implement WTO regulatory rules in ways that facilitate integration into the world economy and provide benefits to private sector participants.Publication Nepal : Trade and Competitiveness Study(Washington, DC, 2003-10-22)This study analyzes Nepal's trade policies and performance, identifies constraints to increasing trade competitiveness, and recommends policy changes and technical assistance to improve trade performance. The study is timely, as Nepal's interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper of 2003 assigns a key role to trade and exports as drivers of broad-based economic growth-one of the four main pillars of its strategy. Key conclusions of this report suggest Nepal's trade policies are generally sound, and the country is competitive in a variety of products. However, these positive factors are tempered by constraints that make Nepal's productivity among the lowest in the region, create an inhospitable business climate, and discourage foreign direct investment-a key conduit for export-market access and technology transfer. The most critical constraints are: 1) delays in customs and transshipment to India's Kolkata port; 2) high infrastructure costs, especially transport and power; 3) a rigid, formal labor market; and, 4) weak policy and institutions in the areas of taxation, investment and trade promotion. But Nepal's prudent macroeconomic stance throughout most of the 1990s, helped increase its competitiveness. Low levels of domestic borrowing by the public sector, the nominal anchor of an exchange-rate peg with India, and a large jump in remittances by expatriate Nepalese labor have enabled Nepal to maintain macroeconomic stability. Notwithstanding, and despite liberalization and growth of trade in the 1990s, the study shows that competitiveness of Nepal's economy is low, as measured by firm-level surveys in manufacturing, farm yields, and aggregate productivity estimates. Labor productivity in manufacturing and agriculture are among the lowest in the region, while manufacturing unit labor costs are among the highest, even though Nepal has comparative advantage in a range of agriculture and manufacturing products. This study shows how three key factors contribute to low price competitiveness and productivity in Nepal's economy: a) inadequate mechanisms and incentives for firms to acquire new technology, b) weak infrastructure, and, c) an unfavorable business climate. Conclusions suggest major impacts of trade on the poor can come from switching to high value cash crops from subsistence agriculture. A key constraint to that is inadequate transportation infrastructure. Growth of transport can lead to welfare effects for the poor by enabling commercial crops and use more fertilizers by farmers. Transportation also has direct welcome effects through creation of employment and income-generating opportunities. To this end, transition from traditional subsistence agriculture toward higher-margin, tradable crops (such as spices, tea, and vegetables) can be promoted by increasing access to year-round irrigation, inputs, technology, and, most importantly, markets.Publication Enhancing Regional Trade Integration in Southeast Europe(World Bank, 2010)Countries of the Southeast Europe (SEE) region have witnessed significant economic improvement since the beginning of their transition to market economies in the early 1990s. Growth has been particularly strong in the past six years, but still lower than in other fast growing countries in the East Asia and Baltic regions, or some of the other new member states of the European Union (EU). The purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to present recent trends in intra regional trade in SEE, in particular following the implementation of Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA); and (ii) to bring the attention of policy makers to some of the remaining impediments to enhanced intra regional trade. The rest of the study is organized as follows. Chapter two describes intraregional trade patterns, both prior and after the entry of CEFTA into force, including more detailed analysis of trade structure. Chapter three emphasizes the role of nontariff barriers (NTBs), such as technical regulations and standards, and their potential impact on trade enhancement, as well as the importance of the trade related environment drawing on global surveys and reports (doing business, Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS), logistics performance indicator, and the enabling trade index). It also looks at rules of origin and their role in trade creation. Chapter four aims to present the view of the private sector on CEFTA and on trade related reforms in general through two case studies of regional firms. Finally, chapter five concludes by summarizing the key recommendations of the study.Publication Introduction and summary to the Handbook of Trade Policy and WTO Accession for Development in Russia and the CIS(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-10)This paper is the introduction and summary chapter of the 43 chapter volume entitled Handbook of Trade Policy and WTO Accession for Development in Russia and the CIS. The key policy conclusions of each of the chapters are highlighted in this paper. The Handbook will be published only in Russian in 2005, but an English language version of the majority of the papers described here is available on the website www.worldbank.org/trade/russia-wto. This paper first explains the potential importance of World Trade Organization (WTO) accession as a development tool, and discusses the recent successful development models and the role of trade policy in their development. The paper then summarizes the three parts of the Handbook. The first part treats trade policy (with applications to Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS]). The second part treats World Trade Organization institutions and disciplines, again with Russia and CIS applications. And the third part focuses on various aspects of the impact of WTO accession on Russia. The numerous papers that relate trade policy and WTO accession to experience in Russia and the CIS are likely to be of special interest to native English speakers, since these papers are new to the literature. The papers in the Handbook are intended to be non-technical materials accessible to a wide policy audience. The Handbook forms the basis of a World Bank Institute course on trade policy and WTO accession, which has been delivered and will be delivered again on multiple occasions.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.