Publication: Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution
Loading...
Date
2023-04-17
ISSN
Published
2023-04-17
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper studies the effects of U.S. energy shocks on international economic activity and the world oil market. The analysis uses a set of factor-augmented vector autoregressions to identify and compare the impact of unanticipated changes in U.S. energy efficiency and U.S. oil supply over 1980Q1–2019Q4. The identification strategy relies on the fact that positive shocks in both cases decrease the real price of oil and increase global gross domestic product (GDP), while generating opposite implications for world oil production and consumption. On average, U.S. energy efficiency shocks have a larger impact on the real price of oil and global GDP than U.S. oil supply shocks. Historical decompositions suggest that in 2010–19, U.S. oil supply shocks increased GDP by 2 percent, while (negative) energy efficiency shocks decreased global GDP by 1.3 percent. The latter effect dominated during the second shale boom in 2017–19. Considerable heterogeneity exists in cross-country responses, with favorable implications for GDP in advanced and emerging market oil importers and adverse implications for oil exporters. The empirical findings are interpreted through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model that features a global oil market and where key parameters are estimated using indirect inference.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Zahid, Hamza. 2023. Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution. Policy Research Working Papers; 10402. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39699 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Internal Geography of Trade : Lagging Regions and Global Markets(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-04-08)Economic theory, including endogenous growth, the role of institutions, and, most importantly, the New Economic Geography (NEG), have made significant progress in explaining the emergence of core-periphery patterns behind this divergence. They point to the critical role of agglomeration, which confers benefits to metropolitan cores that have the advantages of large markets, deep labor pools, links to international markets, and clusters of diverse suppliers and institutions. Regions relatively near the metropolitan core are likely to benefit from spillovers and congestion-related dispersion. Regions further outside the core however, are not only less able to take advantage of spillovers, but also more likely to be far removed from key infrastructural, institutional, and interpersonal links to regional and international markets. As a result, they face significant challenges to becoming competitive locations to host economic activity. Thus the geographical pattern of core and peripheral regions is increasingly manifest in an economic pattern of 'leading' and 'lagging' regionsPublication Employment and Shared Growth : Rethinking the Role of Labor Mobility for Development(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007)This edited volume brings together the papers presented at the conference, "Rethinking the Role of Jobs for Shared Growth," held in Washington, DC, in June 2006. The common theme is that of mobility in the labor market. As growth is related to sectoral shifts in economic activity, the mobility of labor plays a crucial role in ensuring sustainable growth whose benefits are shared amongst all individuals. The papers in this volume focus on selected priority issues at the frontier of research in the microeconomics of labor markets in developing countries, multi-segmented labor markets, the role of informal employment and self-employment, the effect of worker mobility on income, and the impact of firm dynamics on growth and employment. These are important parts of the puzzle and contribute to a better understanding of the role of employment in the economic development of low-income countries.Publication Growth Empirics and Reality(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2001-05)This article questions current empirical practice in the study of growth. It argues that much of the modern empirical growth literature is based on assumptions about regressors, residuals, and parameters that are implausible from the perspective of both economic theory and the historical experiences of the countries under study. Many of these problems, it argues, are forms of violations of an exchangeability assumption that implicitly underlies standard growth exercises. The article shows that these implausible assumptions can be relaxed by allowing for uncertainty in model specification. Model uncertainty consists of two types: theory uncertainty, which relates to which growth determinants should be included in a model; and heterogeneity uncertainty, which relates to which observations in a data set constitute draw from the same statistical model. The article proposes ways to account for both theory and heterogeneity uncertainty. Finally, using an explicit decision-theoretic framework, the authors describe how one can engage in policy-relevant empirical analysis.Publication Options for a Low Carbon Energy Future in Morocco(Washington, DC, 2009-11)Morocco s economy is growing rapidly in all its sectors (tourism, agriculture, industry , etc.) Consequently, the energy demand has been increasing steadily in the period 2003-2007 when primary energy demand rose by 5% per annum and electricity demand by 8% per annum. At the request of the World Bank Group, this study was launched having 3 main objectives: An analysis of the current characteristics of energy supply and demand, the assessment of the energy strategy of Morocco for the coming years, and then a development of an alternative energy scenario with low carbon energies. Beicip-Franlab has established a detailed energy balance of Morocco on the basis ofMoroccan and international studies already conducted on the energy sector of Morocco as well as on well known databases like IEA ones.For the period 2009-2030, Morocco has defined an energy strategy which was presented during the first Assises de l Energie organized in March 2009. An assessment of this strategy considering both energy and environmental criteria will be presented in order to be compared with the business as usual scenario.Finally an alternative scenario is proposed. Based on an intensive introduction ofrenewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE), this scenario would permit a great exploitation of the available RE potential in Morocco, and particularly its wind power potential. In November 2009 after the present report is finalized, Moroccan authorities presented a solar power plan which increases its renewable energy target in 2020, making solar energy target comparable to its wind energy target.A quick review of this new solar plan is presented at the end of this report.Publication Learning from China's Rise to Escape the Middle-Income Trap : A New Structural Economics Approach to Latin America(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-08)This paper discusses the causes of the middle-income trap in Latin America and the Caribbean, identifies the challenges and opportunities for Latin America that come from China's rise, and draws lessons from New Structural Economics and the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework to help Latin America escape the middle-income trap. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are caught in a middle-income trap due to their inability to structurally upgrade from low value-added to high value-added products. Governments in Latin America and the Caribbean should intervene in industries in which they have a comparative advantage, calibrating supporting policies in close collaboration with the private sector through public-private sector alliances. Through continuous structural upgrading in sectors intensive in factors such as natural resources, scientific knowledge, and unskilled labor, the region could achieve dynamic growth. This would require investments in education, research and development, and physical infrastructure. Therefore, industrial upgrading and diversification would be essential to avoid further de-industrialization arising from the competitive pressures of the rise of China, broaden the base for economic growth, and create the basis for further sustained reduction in unemployment, poverty and income inequality. Failure to do so would lead to a loss of competitiveness and risks of further de-industrialization.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Supporting Youth at Risk(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)The World Bank has produced this policy Toolkit in response to a growing demand from our government clients and partners for advice on how to create and implement effective policies for at-risk youth. The author has highlighted 22 policies (six core policies, nine promising policies, and seven general policies) that have been effective in addressing the following five key risk areas for young people around the world: (i) youth unemployment, underemployment, and lack of formal sector employment; (ii) early school leaving; (iii) risky sexual behavior leading to early childbearing and HIV/AIDS; (iv) crime and violence; and (v) substance abuse. The objective of this Toolkit is to serve as a practical guide for policy makers in middle-income countries as well as professionals working within the area of youth development on how to develop and implement an effective policy portfolio to foster healthy and positive youth development.Publication State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-21)This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national, and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and some of the drivers seen over the past year. Specifically, this report covers carbon taxes, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and crediting mechanisms. Key topics covered in the 2024 report include uptake of ETSs and carbon taxes in low- and middle- income economies, sectoral coverage of ETSs and carbon taxes, and the use of crediting mechanisms as part of the policy mix.Publication Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-15)The Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024 is the latest edition of the series formerly known as Poverty and Shared Prosperity. The report emphasizes that reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity must be achieved in ways that do not come at unacceptably high costs to the environment. The current “polycrisis”—where the multiple crises of slow economic growth, increased fragility, climate risks, and heightened uncertainty have come together at the same time—makes national development strategies and international cooperation difficult. Offering the first post-Coronavirus (COVID)-19 pandemic assessment of global progress on this interlinked agenda, the report finds that global poverty reduction has resumed but at a pace slower than before the COVID-19 crisis. Nearly 700 million people worldwide live in extreme poverty with less than US$2.15 per person per day. Progress has essentially plateaued amid lower economic growth and the impacts of COVID-19 and other crises. Today, extreme poverty is concentrated mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa and fragile settings. At a higher standard more typical of upper-middle-income countries—US$6.85 per person per day—almost one-half of the world is living in poverty. The report also provides evidence that the number of countries that have high levels of income inequality has declined considerably during the past two decades, but the pace of improvements in shared prosperity has slowed, and that inequality remains high in Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa. Worldwide, people’s incomes today would need to increase fivefold on average to reach a minimum prosperity threshold of US$25 per person per day. Where there has been progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity, there is evidence of an increasing ability of countries to manage natural hazards, but climate risks are significantly higher in the poorest settings. Nearly one in five people globally is at risk of experiencing welfare losses due to an extreme weather event from which they will struggle to recover. The interconnected issues of climate change and poverty call for a united and inclusive effort from the global community. Development cooperation stakeholders—from governments, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector to communities and citizens acting locally in every corner of the globe—hold pivotal roles in promoting fair and sustainable transitions. By emphasizing strategies that yield multiple benefits and diligently monitoring and addressing trade-offs, we can strive toward a future that is prosperous, equitable, and resilient.Publication World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update, October 2024: Jobs and Technology(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-07)East Asia and the Pacific, seen in the context of the world economy, stands out as a paragon of development. Despite the recent ravages of the pandemic and the persistent tensions of geopolitics, the region is growing at stably high rates and the benefits are widely shared. But compared to its own past and potential, the region’s economic performance is less impressive. Growth is still below pre-pandemic rates, except in Indonesia, and output has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels in several countries, especially in the Pacific. This Economic Update highlights three key developments: shifting regional growth dynamics as China’s growth slows, changing trade patterns due to global tensions, and the impact of technologies such as robots, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms on jobs. The report calls for productivity-enhancing structural reforms to strengthen domestic growth drivers through; deeper international trade agreements to foster more open and stable trade regimes; deeper technical, digital, and soft skills while addressing impediments to labor mobility, factor price distortions and expanding social protection for workers in the digital informal economy to boost productivity and employment.Publication State and Trends of Carbon Pricing: International Carbon Markets 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-09)Well-designed, high integrity carbon markets can play a pivotal role in financing climate action in developing countries. However, several critical bottlenecks impede the growth of these markets. The 2024 State and Trends of International Carbon Markets report evaluates the progress made in addressing these bottlenecks, highlights the urgency of these issues, and proposes recommendations to ensure that carbon markets reach their full potential.