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The Effects of Climate Change in the Poorest Countries: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad

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dc.contributor.authorJedwab, Remi
dc.contributor.authorHaslop, Federico
dc.contributor.authorZarate, Roman D.
dc.contributor.authorRodriguez-Castelán, Carlos
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-06T16:11:02Z
dc.date.available2023-09-06T16:11:02Z
dc.date.issued2023-09-05
dc.description.abstractEmpirical studies of the economic effects of climate change largely rely on climate anomalies for causal identification purposes. Slow and permanent changes in climate-driven geographical conditions, that is, climate change as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have been relatively less studied, especially in Africa, which remains the most vulnerable continent to climate change. This paper focuses on Lake Chad, which used to be the 11th largest lake in the world. Lake Chad, which is the size of El Salvador, Israel, or Massachusetts, slowly shrank by 90 percent for exogenous reasons between 1963 and 1990. While the water supply decreased, the land supply increased, generating a priori ambiguous effects. These effects make the increasing global disappearance of lakes a critical trend to study. For Cameroon, Chad, Nigeria, and Niger—25 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population— the paper constructs a novel data set tracking population patterns at a fine spatial level from the 1940s to the 2010s. Difference-in-differences show much slower growth in the proximity of the lake, but only after the lake started shrinking. These effects persist two decades after the lake stopped shrinking, implying limited adaptation. Additionally, the negative water supply effects on fishing, farming, and herding outweighed the growth of land supply and other positive effects. A quantitative spatial model used to rationalize these results and estimate aggregate welfare losses, which accounts for adaptation, shows overall losses of about 6 percent. The model also allows studying the aggregate and spatial effects of policies related to migration, land use, trade, roads, and cities.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099512009052326812/IDU025c5ce8205ad304dc80a4190d0290f92636c
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10561
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40328
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers; 10561
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectARIDIFICATION
dc.subjectSHRINKAGE OF LAKES
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subjectENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectWATER SUPPLY
dc.subjectLAND SUPPLY
dc.subjectRURAL DECLINE
dc.subjectADAPTATION
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.titleThe Effects of Climate Change in the Poorest Countriesen
dc.title.subtitleEvidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chaden
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleThe Effects of Climate Change in the Poorest Countries: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad
okr.date.disclosure2023-09-05
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-25T02:24:12.952013Z
okr.date.lastmodified2023-09-05T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099512009052326812/IDU025c5ce8205ad304dc80a4190d0290f92636c
okr.guid099512009052326812
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-25c5ce82-5ad3-4dc8-a419-d0290f92636c
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10561
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10561
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34156267
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34156267
okr.identifier.reportWPS10561
okr.import.id1717
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099512009052326812/pdf/IDU025c5ce8205ad304dc80a4190d0290f92636c.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica Western and Central (AFW)
okr.region.countryCameroon
okr.region.countryChad
okr.region.countryNigeria
okr.region.geographicalAfrica
okr.sectorCentral Government (Central Agencies)
okr.themeInclusive Growth,Mitigation,Job Creation,Economic Policy,Social Development and Protection,Economic Growth and Planning,Conflict Prevention,Environment and Natural Resource Management,Private Sector Development,Fragility, Conflict and Violence,Climate change,Jobs,Adaptation
okr.topicEnvironment::Ecosystems and Natural Habitats
okr.topicSocial Development::Social Aspects of Climate Change
okr.topicAgriculture::Climate Change and Agriculture
okr.topicEnvironment::Adaptation to Climate Change
okr.unitEFI-AFR2-MTI-MacroFiscal-2 (EAWM2)
okr.unitEFI-LCR-POV-Poverty and Equity (ELCPV)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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