Publication:
Savings and the Terms of Trade under Borrowing Constraints

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dc.contributor.authorAgenor, Pierre-Richard
dc.contributor.authorAizenman, Joshua
dc.date.accessioned2014-08-28T18:41:14Z
dc.date.available2014-08-28T18:41:14Z
dc.date.issued2000-06
dc.description.abstractThe authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough rather than a sharp peak). Savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade - in contrast with the predictions of conventional consumption-smoothing models. They test the asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results - based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group of countries for which movements in the terms of trade have traditionally represented a key source of macroeconomic shocks) - indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) indeed tend to be associated with higher rates of private savings.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/06/437121/savings-terms-trade-under-borrowing-constraints
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2381
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/19837
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 2381
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectARBITRAGE
dc.subjectASYMMETRIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectBANK DEPOSITS
dc.subjectBORROWING
dc.subjectBUDGET DEFICITS
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOODS
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKET
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectCENTRAL GOVERNMENTS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY EXPORTERS
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCROSS- COUNTRY DATA
dc.subjectCROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSION
dc.subjectCROSS-SECTIONAL DATA
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectCURRENCY UNITS
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS
dc.subjectCURRENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectDATA SET
dc.subjectDEPENDENT VARIABLE
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDIMINISHING MARGINAL UTILITY
dc.subjectDISSAVINGS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC FINANCE
dc.subjectDOMESTIC LIQUIDITY
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC MODEL
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMISTS
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL RESULTS
dc.subjectEXPECTED UTILITY
dc.subjectEXPECTED VALUE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPLANATORY VARIABLES
dc.subjectEXPORT PRICE
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFUNCTIONAL FORM
dc.subjectGDP DEFLATOR
dc.subjectGNP
dc.subjectGNP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGNP PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectINCENTIVES TO SAVE
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME EFFECT
dc.subjectINCOME SHOCKS
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectLAGGED DEPENDENT
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC EFFECTS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectMARGINAL UTILITY
dc.subjectMEAN VALUE
dc.subjectNATIONAL DEFENSE
dc.subjectNEGATIVE EFFECT
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subjectNEGATIVE SHOCK
dc.subjectNEGATIVE WEALTH
dc.subjectNET EXPORTS
dc.subjectNOMINAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectNON-OIL COMMODITY
dc.subjectNON-OIL COMMODITY EXPORTERS
dc.subjectOIL
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTERS
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectPER CAPITA GROWTH
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPERMANENT INCOME
dc.subjectPERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOOR COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPOSITIVE EFFECT
dc.subjectPOSITIVE RELATIONSHIP
dc.subjectPOSITIVE SHOCKS
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE INDEX
dc.subjectPRIVATE AGENTS
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR
dc.subjectPROPENSITY TO SAVE
dc.subjectPUBLIC CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPUBLIC SAVINGS
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectREAL GNP
dc.subjectREAL INCOME
dc.subjectREAL INTEREST RATE
dc.subjectREGRESSION RESULTS
dc.subjectREGRESSION TECHNIQUES
dc.subjectRELATIVE IMPORTANCE
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICE OF CAPITAL
dc.subjectRISK AVERSION
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSAVINGS RATES
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
dc.subjectSOVEREIGN RISK
dc.subjectTAX REVENUE
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectTIME SERIES
dc.subjectTRADE EFFECTS
dc.subjectTRADE SHOCKS
dc.subjectTRADE VARIABLES
dc.subjectTRANSITORY SHOCKS
dc.subjectTROUGH
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.titleSavings and the Terms of Trade under Borrowing Constraintsen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleSavings and the Terms of Trade under Borrowing Constraints
okr.date.disclosure2000-06-30
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:42:46.716398Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/06/437121/savings-terms-trade-under-borrowing-constraints
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid348561468739157490
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2381
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000094946_00072705354794
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum437121
okr.identifier.reportWPS2381
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2000/08/14/000094946_00072705354794/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdfen
okr.region.geographicalSub-Saharan Africa
okr.themeTrade and integration
okr.topicFiscal and Monetary Policy
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Free Trade
okr.topicBanks and Banking Reform
okr.topicPayment Systems and Infrastructure
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicEnvironmental Economics and Policies
okr.unitEconomic Policy and Poverty Reduction, World Bank Institute
okr.volume1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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