Publication:
Cote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growth

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dc.contributor.authorBogetic, Zeljko
dc.contributor.authorEspina, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorNoer, John
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-11T14:10:46Z
dc.date.available2012-06-11T14:10:46Z
dc.date.issued2007-11
dc.description.abstractKey economic variables in Cote d'Ivoire vary widely from their long-run trends, moving in multi-year cyclical patterns. Cocoa prices move with cycles in growth rates, capital stock, real exchange rates, terms of trade, cocoa production, and coffee production and output. These patterns have become more pronounced since the 1970s as volatility increased. This paper characterize these cycles, estimates the cocoa price-quantity relationship, and analyzes co-movements due to shocks generate a forecast. Three key conclusions follow. First, the economy of Cote d'Ivoire has experienced two fundamental transitions, one in 1976 related to cocoa, and another in 1994 related to exchange rates. From 1960 to 1976, world cocoa prices grew steadily, and then fell in real terms. The country's growth showed a similar pattern. An econometric model indicates that the relationship between cocoa price and quantity experienced a break in 1976 and provides evidence of Cote d'Ivoire's significant influence on world cocoa prices. Second, cocoa price shocks affect growth rates and trade indicators, and are important sources of volatility in the Cote d'Ivoire. The terms of trade and real exchange rate are also sources of volatility for growth and productivity. Third, a forecast of per-worker output based on these variables predicts continued declines in GDP per worker in Cote d'Ivoire for the near future. This dismal forecast implies the need for a radical and rapid improvement on political, security, and economic management to reverse the two and a half decades of economic decline.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/11/8789615/cote-divoire-volatility-shocks-growth
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-4415
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/7625
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; No. 4415
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectBIDDING
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectCHOCOLATE
dc.subjectCOCA
dc.subjectCOCOA
dc.subjectCOCOA BEANS
dc.subjectCOCOA PRICE
dc.subjectCOCOA PRICES
dc.subjectCOFFEE
dc.subjectCOFFEE BEANS
dc.subjectCOFFEE PRICE
dc.subjectCOFFEE PRICES
dc.subjectCOFFEE PRODUCTION
dc.subjectCOFFEE YIELDS
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY EXPORTS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDICES
dc.subjectCOTTON
dc.subjectCOTTON PRICES
dc.subjectCROP
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectCYCLICAL SWINGS
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDYNAMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMETRICS
dc.subjectECONOMIC HISTORY
dc.subjectECONOMIC STATISTICS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE MARKETS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectFAO
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectFUTURES
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectMARKET POWER
dc.subjectMARKET SHARE
dc.subjectMARKETING
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectOUTPUT PER CAPITA
dc.subjectOVERVALUATION
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPOSITIVE EFFECTS
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE LEVEL
dc.subjectPRICE QUOTATIONS
dc.subjectPRICE SERIES
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRODUCE
dc.subjectPRODUCTION INCREASES
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY OF LAND
dc.subjectRA
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectRATE OF GROWTH
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectSHARE OF WORLD OUTPUT
dc.subjectSPOT PRICE
dc.subjectSPOT PRICES
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectTROUGH
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectWORLD MARKET
dc.subjectWORLD MARKETS
dc.subjectYIELDS
dc.titleCote d'Ivoire : Volatility, Shocks and Growthen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleCote D'ivoire Volatility, Shocks And Growth
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:39:53.839695Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/11/8789615/cote-divoire-volatility-shocks-growth
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeAgriculture
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid474241468032157731
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-4415
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20071128105921
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum8789615
okr.identifier.reportWPS4415
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2007/11/28/000158349_20071128105921/Rendered/PDF/wps4415.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.countryCote d'Ivoire
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Markets and Market Access
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Emerging Markets
okr.topicCrops and Crop Management Systems
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Access to Markets
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade
okr.topicAgriculture
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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