Publication:
The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

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dc.contributor.authorRozenberg, Julie
dc.contributor.authorHallegatte, Stephane
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-18T20:01:44Z
dc.date.available2015-12-18T20:01:44Z
dc.date.issued2015-11
dc.description.abstractThe impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25257367/impacts-climate-change-poverty-2030-potential-rapid-inclusive-climate-informed-development
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7483
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/23447
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7483
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectSANITATION
dc.subjectPOVERTY THRESHOLD
dc.subjectINCOME ON FOOD
dc.subjectJOBS
dc.subjectIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectPOOR PEOPLE
dc.subjectINDICATORS FOR POVERTY
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectRISKS
dc.subjectIMPACT OF HURRICANES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SIZE
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTIES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectIMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectSECTORAL RESULTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectEMISSION ABATEMENT
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY ESTIMATES
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectCHANGES IN PRICES
dc.subjectCOUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subjectINCOME ON FOOD
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectEXTREME SCENARIOS
dc.subjectCOST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectREVENUES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS
dc.subjectDEATH
dc.subjectPOVERTY DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPOOR PEOPLE
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectMODELS
dc.subjectCLIMATE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectPRICE
dc.subjectGLOBAL POVERTY
dc.subjectCROP YIELD
dc.subjectMEASURES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA
dc.subjectFOOD MARKETS
dc.subjectHURRICANES
dc.subjectEXTREME WEATHER
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectDEEP‐UNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRACTICES
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectCROP YIELD
dc.subjectFOOD MARKETS
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectSCENARIOS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectCLIMATE POLICIES
dc.subjectFAT TAILS
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectEMISSIONS‐REDUCTION
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectTOTAL CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectGLOBAL POVERTY
dc.subjectLABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectTRANSFERS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL WAGES
dc.subjectMARKETS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subjectCYCLONES
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFAMINE
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subjectCASH TRANSFERS
dc.subjectEXTREME TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectFINANCE
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectIMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL POLICY
dc.subjectCROP YIELDS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESILIENCE
dc.subjectPOVERTY ERADICATION
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC COSTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL WORKERS
dc.subjectPOLICIES
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectINCOME REDISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectCLIMATIC CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subjectCASH TRANSFERS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
dc.subjectEXTREME EVENTS
dc.subjectPOOR COUNTRIES
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectECONOMIC SECTORS
dc.subjectDEMAND
dc.subjectABATEMENT
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectABSOLUTE POVERTY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFOOD EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRACTICES
dc.subjectMALNUTRITION
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectDEEP UNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectNUTRITION
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD BUDGET
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE
dc.subjectENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASE
dc.subjectPOLICY
dc.subjectHUMAN HEALTH
dc.subjectCLIMATIC CHANGE
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL WORKERS
dc.subjectCOST OF CARBON
dc.subjectDRINKING WATER
dc.subjectPOVERTY ERADICATION
dc.subjectHURRICANE
dc.subjectUNCERTAIN IMPACTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPACTS
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectPOOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS
dc.subjectPOVERTY
dc.subjectPOOR FARMERS
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectFOOD SUPPLY
dc.subjectSUPPLY
dc.subjectPOLICY IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectLABOR SUPPLY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectPOVERTY DYNAMICS
dc.subjectINCOME REDISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectEXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY IMPACT
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subjectPOOR FARMERS
dc.subjectPOVERTY THRESHOLD
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectBENEFITS
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectPOOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectINDICATORS FOR POVERTY
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.titleThe Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Developmenten
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleThe Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development
okr.date.disclosure2015-11-09
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T10:32:01.748137Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25257367/impacts-climate-change-poverty-2030-potential-rapid-inclusive-climate-informed-development
okr.guid349001468197334987
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7483
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b0831a2218_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum25257367
okr.identifier.reportWPS7483
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/11/09/090224b0831a2218/1_0/Rendered/PDF/The0impacts0of0informed0development.pdfen
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Climate Change Economics
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.unitWorld Bank Group’s Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solutions Area
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