Publication:
Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions

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dc.contributor.authorConstantinescu, Cristina
dc.contributor.authorRuta, Michele
dc.contributor.authorMattoo, Aaditya
dc.date.accessioned2019-11-21T16:48:55Z
dc.date.available2019-11-21T16:48:55Z
dc.date.issued2019-10
dc.description.abstractThis paper attempts to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty on overall trade and trade linked to global value chains. Using new data on policy uncertainty for 18 countries and 24 years, it finds a statistically significant negative impact of policy uncertainty on overall trade growth. A 1 percent increase in uncertainty is associated with a 0.02 percentage point reduction in the growth of goods and services trade, implying that the increase in policy uncertainty since mid-2018 may have caused a 1 percentage point decline in world trade growth. The paper also finds that the impact of policy uncertainty on trade linked to global value chains is similar to overall trade. This is likely to be the result of two opposing forces: global value chains are more dependent on relation-specific investments that are sensitive to policy uncertainty, but these investments also make trade patterns sticky. More research and better data are needed to disentangle these different effects empirically.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/507501572005904904/Policy-Uncertainty-Trade-and-Global-Value-Chains-Some-Facts-Many-Questions
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9048
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/32657
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9048
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectTRADE GROWTH
dc.subjectGLOBAL VALUE CHAIN
dc.subjectPOLICY UNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectINVESTMENT CLIMATE
dc.titlePolicy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chainsen
dc.title.subtitleSome Facts, Many Questionsen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titlePolicy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions
okr.date.disclosure2019-10-25
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-07T08:18:03.535281Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-08T16:08:12.439027Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-09T02:52:36.592645Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/507501572005904904/Policy-Uncertainty-Trade-and-Global-Value-Chains-Some-Facts-Many-Questions
okr.guid507501572005904904
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9048
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b0872d4cab_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum31507781
okr.identifier.reportWPS9048
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/507501572005904904/pdf/Policy-Uncertainty-Trade-and-Global-Value-Chains-Some-Facts-Many-Questions.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined5996
okr.statistics.dr507501572005904904
okr.statistics.drstats4915
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::International Trade and Trade Rules
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Investment and Investment Climate
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Global Value Chains and Business Clustering
okr.unitMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice; and East Asia and the Pacific Region
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