Publication: Pakistan : Reinvigorating the Trade Agenda
Loading...
Published
2013-03
ISSN
Date
2014-04-16
Author(s)
Reis, José Guilherme
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper reviews Pakistan's recent trade performance, its trade policy and trade costs. Different dimensions of trade performance growth and orientation, diversification and sophistication are assessed, complemented by an in-depth analysis of export dynamics in the period 2001-10 using firm-level data. An econometric exercise is also performed to identify the impact of tariffs, exchange rates, fixed costs to export, foreign demand, and preferential trade policy on the ability of firms to increase their exports. The analysis of Pakistan's trade policy includes tariffs, effective protection and trade restrictiveness estimates, as well as an assessment of the role of preferential trade agreements in the context of regional integration. Finally, the main characteristics of trade facilitation and logistics are analyzed, covering the capacity, performance, quality of services and degree of integration of the logistics system.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Reis, José Guilherme; Taglioni, Daria. 2013. Pakistan : Reinvigorating the Trade Agenda. World Bank Policy Paper Series on Pakistan;no. PK 15/12. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17863 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Dominican Republic, Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) : Challenges and Opportunities for Central America(Washington, DC, 2005-12)This report provides a preliminary assessment of DR-CAFTA (the , with particular attention to three key themes: (1) expected trade and non-trade benefits, (2) actions that Central American countries need to pursue to capitalize optimally on the new opportunities, and (3) identification of the population groups that may require assistance to adapt to a more competitive environment. The report focuses on the developing countries of Central America, namely Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The analysis presented in the report shows that the vast majority of the population in Central America is likely to experience welfare gains from implementation of DR-CAFTA, even in the short run. At the same time, the removal of trade barriers in sensitive agricultural crops could adversely affect a small share of the population living in rural areas in Central America. Although provisions in DR-CAFTA will allow for long timetables in reducing tariffs for the most sensitive products, appropriate support programs may need to be designed. In addition, selective investments in education, rural infrastructure, rural finance, and technical assistance will be required to ensure that the rural poor have the means to take full advantage of the new opportunities arising out of DR-CAFTA. Chapter 1 of the report reviews the main findings of the chapters in the order in which they appear. Chapter 2 places DR-CAFTA in the historical context of the economic reforms that Central American countries have been undertaking since the late 1980s. Chapter 3 provides a summary overview of the recently negotiated DR-CAFTA, with special attention on the extent to which the agreement's provisions would significantly change market access for Central American goods and services, and also on how far they could be expected to consolidate prior reforms. Chapter 4 reviews various analyses that assess the potential impacts of DR-CAFTA on the developing countries of Central America. Chapter 5 focuses on the identification and quantification of potentially affected populations from the easing of trade restrictions in sensitive agricultural products, and analyzes policy options to assist vulnerable groups. Chapter 6 reviews evidence related to key macroeconomic implications of DR-CAFTA, namely the potential revenue losses that might be produced by the removal of import taxes and the treaty's potential effect on the patterns of business-cycle synchronization. Chapter 7 reviews evidence from each Central American country in the areas of trade facilitation, institutional and regulatory reforms, and innovation and education, in order to identify key priorities for the complementary agenda for DR-CAFTA.Publication Determinants of Trade Policy Responses to the 2008 Financial Crisis(2011-10-01)The collapse in trade and contraction of output that occurred during 2008-09 was comparable to, and in many countries more severe than, the Great Depression of 1930, but did not give rise to the rampant protectionism that followed the Great Crash. Theory suggests several hypotheses for why it was not in the interest of many firms to lobby for protection, including much greater macroeconomic "policy space" today, the rise of intra-industry trade (specialization in specific varieties), and the fragmentation of production across global value chains ("vertical" specialization and the associated growth of trade in intermediates). Institutions may also have played a role in limiting the extent of protectionist responses. World Trade Organization disciplines raise the cost of using trade policies for member countries and have proved to be a stable foundation for the open multilateral trading system that has been built over the last fifty years. This paper empirically examines the power of these and other theories to explain the observed pattern of trade policy responses to the 2008 crisis, using trade and protection data for seven large emerging market countries that have a history of active use of trade policy. Vertical specialization (global fragmentation) is found to be the most powerful economic factor determining trade policy responses.Publication Trade Preferences and Differential Treatment of Developing Countries: A Selective Survey(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-04)Nonreciprocal trade preferences and provisions in the GATT/WTO that allow developing countries greater leeway to retain or use protectionist policies are two of the central planks of so-called special and differential treatment (SDT) for developing countries in the multilateral trading system. The authors survey the literature on the rationales, institutional features, and economic effectiveness of SDT. A large literature has emerged on SDT in the past 50 years, by both proponents and opponents. They summarize a number of key contributions on the subject, with a special emphasis on the evaluation of the impact of SDT, especially preferential market access. The issue of SDT has become very topical again, following a period during which it was viewed as an outdated concept for the multilateral trading system. The authors therefore devote attention as well to a number of recent contributions that discuss (1) whether there is a continued need for SDT, and (2) how this might be designed from both a development (recipient) objective and from the perspective of the trading system more generally. A major theme of the survey is that most of the issues that are debated today were already being discussed in the 1960s. The authors conclude that those who questioned the value of unilateral preferences have proven to be prescient.Publication Africa : Economic Partnership Agreements between Africa and the European Union, What to do Now? Summary Report(Washington, DC, 2008-10)This report addresses the question raised in its title - now that 18 interim Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) have been initialed and negotiations of full EPAs have been launched, what should African countries and regional EPA-groups do? Part two of the report analyzes the outcome of the EPA negotiations thus far, the interim EPAs' implications for the trade and related policies of participating African countries, and the reforms required for successful implementation of interim EPAs. Part three examines the potential role of full EPAs, in advancing regional trade integration, open trade policies, and the liberalization of trade in services and foreign direct investment in Africa. The intended audience for this report is primarily policy makers and their advisors in the African EPA-countries, but it may also be of interest to those in the broader development community concerned with Africa.Publication Proposals for WTO Reform : A Synthesis and Assessment(2011-01-01)This paper summarizes the major arguments and proposals to reform the modus operandi of the World Trade Organization --including decision-making procedures, negotiating modalities, and dispute settlement. Much has already been done to improve the internal and external transparency of World Trade Organization processes. Some proposals for structural reform ignore incentive constraints and the fact that the World Trade Organization is an incomplete contract that must be self-enforcing. Others -- such as calls for a "critical mass" approach to negotiations --can already be pursued (and have been). The agenda for international cooperation increasingly revolves around "behind-the-border" regulatory externalities that do not necessarily lend themselves to binding commitments in a trade agreement. This suggests a focus on strengthening notification/surveillance and developing more effective mechanisms for dialogue on regulatory policies that may create negative spillovers.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-29)Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. In 2026, commodity prices are forecast to fall by a further 7 percent, a fourth consecutive year of decline, as global growth remains sluggish and the oil market oversupplied. Energy price movements are envisaged to continue contributing to global disinflation in 2026. Metals and minerals prices are expected to remain stable in 2026, while agricultural prices are projected to edge down, primarily due to strong supply conditions. Precious metals prices are expected to rise another 5 percent, after a historically large, investment-driven rally of about 40 percent in 2025. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. Key downside risks include weaker-than-expected global growth, a longer-than-assumed period of economic policy uncertainty, and additional oversupply of oil. Upside risks include intensifying geopolitical tensions, the market impact of additional oil sanctions, supply reductions stemming from additional trade restrictions, unfavorable weather conditions, faster-than-expected rollout of new data centers. Commodity price volatility in recent years has revived interest in supply management via international commodity agreements. Historical experience, however, shows that the most effective policy is to promote diversification, innovation, transparency, and market-based pricing—measures that build lasting resilience to commodity price volatility.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Mining Royalties : A Global Study of Their Impact on Investors, Government, and Civil Society(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006)Mineral sector regulatory and fiscal systems have been undergoing major reforms across the globe. This book focuses on information and analysis relating to mineral royalties. It provides a general discussion of the concepts behind mining taxation, a guide to royalties, examples of royalty calculations and the ways in which these interact with other forms of taxation, as well as financial effects on investments under varying conditions. Primary information includes royalty legislation from over forty nations. The book discusses implications for investors and governments of various tax regimes and provides specific country case examples. A chapter is included on transparency, governance, and management of revenue streams. The appendices, in the second volume, contain brief summaries and selected statutes relating to royalties in a broad cross-section of nations around the world; sample spreadsheets of the results of mine models that were analyzed; and examples of administrative and distributional approaches to collecting royalties.