Publication:
Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries

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dc.contributor.authorSteinbuks, Jevgenijs
dc.date.accessioned2017-02-22T22:33:30Z
dc.date.available2017-02-22T22:33:30Z
dc.date.issued2017-02
dc.description.abstractThis study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however, diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation or exposure to conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to establish stable historical demand trends.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/728681487169710866/Assessing-the-accuracy-of-electricity-demand-forecasts-in-developing-countries
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7974
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/26141
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7974
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectelectricity
dc.subjectenergy consumption
dc.subjecteconometric models
dc.subjectforecasting
dc.subjectelectricity demand
dc.titleAssessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countriesen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleAssessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries
okr.date.disclosure2017-02-15
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/728681487169710866/Assessing-the-accuracy-of-electricity-demand-forecasts-in-developing-countries
okr.guid728681487169710866
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7974
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b084946a07_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum27193230
okr.identifier.reportWPS7974
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/728681487169710866/pdf/WPS7974.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined1868
okr.statistics.dr728681487169710866
okr.statistics.drstats1408
okr.topicEnergy::Electric Power
okr.topicEnergy::Energy Demand
okr.topicEnergy::Energy Policies & Economics
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.unitEnvironment and Energy Team, Development Research Group
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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