Publication:
A Simple Method to Quantify the ex-ante Effects of 'Deep' Trade Liberalization and 'Hard' Trade Protection

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorLarch, Mario
dc.contributor.authorTan, Shawn W.
dc.contributor.authorYotov, Yoto V.
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-12T17:17:49Z
dc.date.available2021-10-12T17:17:49Z
dc.date.issued2021-10
dc.description.abstractThis paper proposes a simple and flexible econometric approach to quantify ex-ante the “deep” impact of trade liberalization and the “hard” effects of protection with the empirical structural gravity model. Specifically, the paper argues that the difference between the estimates of border indicator variables for affected and non-affected countries can be used as a comprehensive measure of the change in bilateral trade costs in response to a hypothetical policy change. To demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods, the paper focus on the integration between the countries from the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the European Union (EU), which is an important policy application that has not been studied before due to lack of data. This analysis overcomes this challenge by utilizing a new dataset on trade and production that covers all EU countries and all CEFTA members (except for Kosovo). The partial equilibrium estimates that we obtain confirm the validity of our methods, while the corresponding general equilibrium effects point to significant and heterogeneous potential gains for the CEFTA countries from joining the EU. The proposed methods can also be extended to ex-post analysis and are readily applicable to other applications, for example, “hard” Brexit.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/899351633373629469/A-Simple-Method-to-Quantify-the-ex-ante-Effects-of-Deep-Trade-Liberalization-and-Hard-Trade-Protection
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9791
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/36342
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9791
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectTRADE COSTS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL GRAVITY
dc.subjectCEFTA
dc.subjectTRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectTRADE PROTECTION
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENT
dc.titleA Simple Method to Quantify the ex-ante Effects of 'Deep' Trade Liberalization and 'Hard' Trade Protectionen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleA Simple Method to Quantify the Ex-Ante Effects of “Deep” Trade Liberalization and “Hard” Trade Protection
okr.date.disclosure2021-10-04
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:08:48.684052Z
okr.date.lastmodified2021-10-04T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/899351633373629469/A-Simple-Method-to-Quantify-the-ex-ante-Effects-of-Deep-Trade-Liberalization-and-Hard-Trade-Protection
okr.guid899351633373629469
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9791
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b088a30fea_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33464064
okr.identifier.reportWPS9791
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/899351633373629469/pdf/A-Simple-Method-to-Quantify-the-ex-ante-Effects-of-Deep-Trade-Liberalization-and-Hard-Trade-Protection.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.geographicalEurope
okr.region.geographicalEuropean Union
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::International Trade and Trade Rules
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Liberalization
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade and Regional Integration
okr.unitFinance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Thumbnail Image
Name:
A-Simple-Method-to-Quantify-the-ex-ante-Effects-of-Deep-Trade-Liberalization-and-Hard-Trade-Protection.pdf
Size:
734.7 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
A-Simple-Method-to-Quantify-the-ex-ante-Effects-of-Deep-Trade-Liberalization-and-Hard-Trade-Protection.txt
Size:
123.72 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Policy Research Working Papers